Transcript Slajd 1

WORLDWIDE SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT INFORMATION
SYSTEM
AS A PRECONDITION
FOR LIFE IN THE STATE OF CHANGE
AND RISK
Leslaw Michnowski
www.psl.org.pl/kte
Co-founder of Sustainable Development Information
Society Forum – Poland.
Member of:
- Committee for Futures Studies "Poland 2000 Plus"
Polish Academy of Sciences;
- the Polish Association for the Club of Rome;
- the Polish delegation for World Summit on Information
Society – Tunis, 2005.
Chairman of Sustainable Development Creators’ Club Poland,
Nowadays, the main problems:
How to live in the
State of Change and Risk?
How to develop ICT for life in
above state?
In the State of Change and Risk:
- very high rate of changes in lifeconditions,
- big inertia of societies, economy
and management,
- lack of full knowledge about
complex (including future) effects
of human activity (in chaotic world).
In the State of Change and Risk
a necessity of:
- anticipation of changes in lifeconditions and
- “feedforward” adaptation forms
of life to approaching new lifeconditions
In the State of Change and Risk
- the main cause of the global
ecosystem degradation is
rapidly pacing moral degradation
(out-datedness) of existing forms of
life - not fitted to new rapidly
emergence life-conditions
The more scientific-technology
progress - the more moral
degradation, as well as
more human labor
- wisdom intellectual creativity –
is needed for life and development
Nowadays, quite new life-conditions:
environment has lost ability to recovery
by itself.
Instead of
“growth at the cost of (socio-natural)
environment”
we need:
- “development together with
environment” and
- wisdom based society.
Main cause of global crisis:
World society and its economy is
not fitted to life in the State of
Change and Risk.
To overcome global crisis
we have to shape
(with help of ICT):
- farsightedness,
- flexibility, and
- ability of reserves creation,
as well as
- possibility of basing policy on
common interest value system
Instead of
social-Darwinism (and “structural”
unemployment)
we need
Ecohumanistic Intellectual
Evolution –
pre-selection in virtual reality
aided by popular wisdom
In cybernetics approach:
no limits to WISDOM based
growth and sustainable
development
The basic premise :
i = B(n,q)1/s
where:
i - is the level of information (Wiener, 1971) –
conceptual measure of level of development (and
organization, as well as quality) of life-system;
s - is the level of entropy as well as the level of
development - reserves of life-system;
n - is the number of its elements;
q - is quality of elements of life system, and
B(n,q) - some function connected with quantity
and quality of system elements.
Sustainable development
of the world society
is essential to
avoid global catastrophe
(environmental, world war for
access to deficit resources, clash of
civilizations)
For sustainable development
we need to combine:
- economic development,
- social development, and
- environmental protection,
in short- and long-term perspective
To achieve sustainable
development we need to implement
- sustained economic growth,
- fair globalization,
- elimination of unemployment and
“digital divide”, as well as
- other UN Goals.
To avoid global catastrophe
we must create (as rapidly as
possible – China,India!!!)
information foundations of:
- SD(sustainable development)policy, and
- SD-economy, as well as
- large-scale flexible automation.
We have to build
WORLD-WIDE,
COMMONLY ACCESSIBLE,
SD-INFORMATION SYSTEM
for:
- comprehensive monitoring,
- far-sighted forecasting, and
- measurable evaluation,
of policy, economy, work, and other
changes effects in life-conditions
of human-beings and nature in general.
World SD-Information System (of
systems) would be:
- net and grid type
- continuously under development,
and
- builded in multi stage way (based
on G. Nadler „ideal” method)
As a next task we ought to build
WORLDWIDE FLEXIBLE
AUTOMATION SYSTEM
These tasks ought to be preceded
by international research, which
will describe conditions for creation
the information foundations of SDpolicy and SD-economy - i.e. the
ways of ICT development for life
in the State of Change and Risk.
Effects of above research would be
presented during three international
conferences of the
International forum on a wisdombased global information society
– towards sustainable
development of the world society
Conference I: Information efficiency and
warning forecasting as preconditions of
SD-policy and SD-economy (2007)
Main tasks:
1. How to get politicians and societies access to
knowledge about complex (and future) effects of current
policy?
2. How to combine existing forecasting systems and
projects (i.a. Meadows’s-Forrester, T. Utsumi, GEOSS)
in World-wide SD-Information System.
3. How to get access to dates and knowledge that are
necessary for warning forecasting?
4. How to transform national and regional statistical
offices (e.g. EUROSTAT) into offices for statistic and
warning forecasting,
Conference II: Computer simulation
methods for SD-economy (2009)
Main tasks:
1. How to build information bases of SDeconomy.
2. How to make possible complex accounting of
benefits and cost of socio-economic activity
(including natural and social - human
components).
3. How to make possible dividing effects of social
process of work proportionally to ecosocially
usefulness of individual and/or collective work.
Conference III: Flexible automation as
important agent of sustainable
development (2011)
Main tasks:
1. How to aid, by automation, in elimination of
rapidly emergence dangers.
2. How to aid fighting with negative effects of
moral degradation of forms of life?
3. How to accelerate other science-technology
progress that is essential for sustainable
development?
4. How to decrease ecological costs of distant
transportation?
We will appreciate subsidy for the
first stage above research and
Conference I of this complex,
international project
Realization of above proposals is
especially essential for:
- INTERNALIZING EXTERNALITIES,
- DECOUPLING (the range of
economic growth from the range of
deficit natural resources depletion
growth and degradation of
environment);
- COUPLING (the economic growth
with social development, including
popular quality of life growth).
Without realization of above
proposals it is impossible to:
- avoid global catastrophe,
as well as
- implement UN Goals
This Summit (WSIS) (…) must push forward
the outcome of the (2005) World Summit
(…) It must lead to information and
communications technologies being
used in new ways, which will bring new
benefits to all social classes. (…) The
hurdle here is more political than
financial.
From STATEMENT BY H. E. MR. KOFI ANNAN
THE SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE UNITED NATIONS
WSIS, Tunis, 16 November 2005