Transcript Slajd 1

WORLDWIDE SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT INFORMATION
SYSTEM
AS A PRECONDITION
FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF
THE UNITED NATIONS GOALS
Leslaw Michnowski
www.psl.org.pl/kte
Co-founder of Sustainable Development Information
Society Forum – Poland.
Member of:
- Committee for Futures Studies "Poland 2000 Plus"
Polish Academy of Sciences;
- the Polish Association for the Club of Rome;
- the Polish delegation for the World Summit on the
Information Society – Tunis, 2005.
Chairman of Sustainable Development Creators’ Club
- Poland,
It is
extended
paper presentation
during plenary session of
IFISI WORLD FORUM ON ICT
STRATEGIES AND INVESTMENTS,
in Marrakech, Morocco,
1- 3 March 2006
http://www.virtualisnet.com/ifisi/index.html
From STATEMENT BY H. E. MR. KOFI ANNAN
THE SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE UNITED NATIONS, WSIS,
Tunis, 16 November 2005:
This Summit (WSIS) (…) must push forward the
outcome of the (2005) World Summit (…)
It must lead to information and
communications technologies being used in
new ways, which will bring new BENEFITS TO
ALL social classes. (…)
THE HURDLE HERE IS MORE POLITICAL
THAN FINANCIAL.
“the sustainable development of our
people (…) comprehensive vision for the
future of humanity (…) poverty eradication,
changing consumption and production
patterns (…) pillars of sustainable
development – economic development,
social development and
environmental protection (…)”.
– WSSD - Johannesburg Declaration.
Sustainable development (SD)
of the world society
is the most important goal of UN
I present systemic analysis results
essence of:
- GLOBAL CRISIS,
- SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT,
and
- INFORMATION FOUNDATIONS of
sustainable development.
This analysis was done with help of –
created by me - conceptual model of
system: man – technology - environment:
System of Life.
In System of Life
approach
(that is holistic)
the global eco-system
- system: man - technology – environment –
as well as
environment
are
LIFE-SYSTEMS and open systems.
Therefore, the life of system: man-technology,
depends on life, high quality and proper form
of environment.
The development of
system: man-technology
(for example, world society or high
developed societies)
depends on
development of environment.
For sustainable development
we need:
- ability to recognize
(with help of warning forecasting
system)
approaching limits to growth (p-t T),
and
- skill to cross them in developmental
way.
Nowadays, the global eco-system
– world society and natural environment –
is in
the State of Change (Flux) and Risk.
It is qualitatively new state of
life-conditions (inter alia access to natural
resources) –
caused by
big science-technology (and organization)
progress.
In the State of Change and Risk:
- very high rate of
changes in life-conditions
(and environment);
- big inertia
of
societies, economy and management;
- lack of full knowledge
about
complex (including future) effects of human
activity (in chaotic world).
In the State of Change and Risk
a necessity of:
- anticipation of changes in life-conditions,
and
- “feedforward” adaptation forms of life
(technology, economy, value system, …)
to approaching new life-conditions.
For life
in the State of Change and Risk
we have to create
commonly accessible
WORLDWIDE
SD-INFORMATION SYSTEM
for:
- comprehensive monitoring,
- far-sighted forecasting, and
- measurable evaluation (assessment),
of policy, economy, work, and other changes
effects in life-conditions of human-beings and
nature in general.
Comprehensive monitoring
– such monitoring that delivers
information also about:
- quality of monitored life-process (is it
development or crisis regression?), and
- rate of development or regression (is it
accelerate or delay?).
If
E = mc2 (Einstein)
and
– probably –
the amount of Universe energy is infinite the access to deficit resources
(energy in large sense)
would depend on:
human intellectual potential,
knowledge,
technology
and
time,
that conditions it.
Nowadays, quite new life-conditions:
environment has lost ability
to recovery by itself.
Therefore we have „to give” environment
more than we „take” from it.
But - in the State of Change and Risk preparation for this „giving”
ought to be based on
the knowledge about
FUTURE LIFE-NEEDS of environment.
In the State of Change and Risk
- the main cause of
the global eco-system degradation is
rapidly pacing
MORAL DEGRADATION
(out-datedness, obsolescence)
of existing forms of life –
not fitted to new rapidly emergence lifeconditions and life-needs.
Main cause of global crisis:
World society and its economy is
not fitted to life
in
the State of Change and Risk.
World society has not ability for
efficient elimination negative effects of
MORAL DEGRADATION.
The main UN problems:
How nowadays
- in the State of Change and Risk –
shape life of the world society ?
How to develop ICT
for life
in above state?
To overcome global crisis
we have (with help of ICT) to shape:
- farsightedness;
- flexibility,
and
- reserves creation ability,
of world society.
We need also possibility of
basing policy and economy
on
COMMON INTEREST
(G. H. Brundtland, Our Common Future)
VALUE SYSTEM
In the State of Change and Risk,
instead of
social-Darwinism
(and “structural” unemployment)
we need
Ecohumanistic
Intellectual Evolution
–
i.e. pre-selection in virtual reality
(by means of computer simulation)
aided by popular wisdom.
ECOHUMANISM
is a partnership-based co-operation
for
the COMMON GOOD OF ALL PEOPLE
(rich and poor, from countries highly
developed and lag behind in
development),
their descendants,
and
natural environment
- COMMONLY SUPPORTED by science
and HIGH TECHNOLOGY.
Wisdom - ability to:
- observe events in global eco-system;
- get knowledge about processes
combined with these events;
- predict future of these processes;
- assess these processes;
- amplify (support) life-support processes,
or
- eliminate processes dangerous for life
(of observer and environment).
„Structural” unemployment
is not
a result of science-technology progress.
It is a result of pathological (socialDarwinistic) economy and education
system.
It is – as a first - a result of
the world elite short-sightedness.
In order to achieve
sustainable development
of the world society
we have to go through
NEW SCIENCE–TECHNOLOGY
REVOLUTION
that allow to convert
wastes
into
environment life-support agents.
THE MORE scientific-technology progress
– THE MORE moral degradation,
as well as
THE MORE human labor
- wisdom intellectual creativity –
is essential for life and development
In the State of Change and Risk,
instead of
“growth at the cost of (socio-natural)
environment” continuation,
we need:
- “development together with
environment”,
and
- WISDOM BASED SOCIETY.
WISDOM BASED SOCIETY
– such knowledge society
that is based on:
- commonly accessible knowledge
about complex (including FUTURE)
effects of human activity;
- popular ability to create information
(in N. Wiener sense, i.e. cognition and
innovation activity),
and
- common interest value system –
ECOHUMANISTIC one.
Long-term prediction and assessment of
human activity complex effects
and decreasing of
moral degradation intensity
as well as
elimination of negative moral
degradation aftermath
- needs to base socio-economic activity
on
ecohumanistic (common-interest)
value system
The shift from currently egoistic- to
ecohumanistic- value system
is a precondition
to get popular access to
large amount of knowledge,
(existing and that new one, which ought to be
permanently delivered)
which is necessary for efficient:
- warning forecasting
and
- designing means for
elimination of
moral degradation negative effects.
In cybernetics approach:
no limits to WISDOM based growth
and sustainable development
It is consistent with
P. Teilhard de Chardin OMEGA POINT
conception.
The basic premise :
i = B(n,q)1/s
where:
i - is the level of information (Wiener, 1971) –
conceptual measure of level of development (and
organization, as well as quality) of life-system;
s - is the level of entropy as well as the level of
development - reserves of life-system;
n - is the number of its elements;
q - is quality of elements of life system, and
B(n,q) - some function connected with quantity
and quality of system elements.
For sustainable development
we need to combine:
- economic development;
- social development,
and
- environmental protection,
in short- and long-term perspective
To achieve
sustainable development
we need to
implement:
- sustained economic growth;
- fair globalization (including elimination of
“digital divide” and unemployment),
as well as
- other fundamental UN Goals.
Sustainable development
of the world society
is essential to
avoid global catastrophe
(environmental,
world war for access to deficit
resources,
clash of civilizations)
To avoid global catastrophe
we must create
(as rapidly as possible – China, India!!!)
information foundations of:
- SD(sustainable development)-policy,
and
- SD-economy,
as well as
- large-scale flexible automation.
Worldwide SD-Information System
(of systems)
would be:
- net and GRID (T. Utsumi) type;
- continuously under development,
and
- created
with help of System Dynamics
in multi stage way
(based on G. Nadler „ideal” method).
We ought to treat
Meadows’s – Forrester
(Limits to Growth, Beyond the Limits, Limits
to Growth 30 Years Update, …)
System Dynamics warning forecasting
as element of:
worldwide early warning system
(2005 World Summit Outcome, p-t. 56 f),
as well as
Worldwide SD-Information System.
As a next task we ought to build
WORLDWIDE FLEXIBLE AUTOMATION
SYSTEM
These tasks ought to be preceded by
INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH,
which will describe:
- conditions for creation
the information foundations of:
SD-policy
and
SD-economy
- i.e. the ways of ICT development
for life in
the State of Change and Risk.
Effects of above research
would be presented during
at least
three international conferences of
International forum on a wisdom-based
global information society – towards
sustainable development of the world
society
Conference I: Information efficiency and
warning forecasting as preconditions of
SD-policy and SD-economy (2007)
Main tasks:
1. How to get policy-makers - and societies - access to knowledge
about complex (and future) effects of current policy (their own and
other policy-makers)?
2. How to combine existing forecasting systems and projects (i.a.
Meadows’s-Forrester, T. Utsumi, GEOSS) in Worldwide SDInformation System.
3. How to get access to dates and knowledge that are necessary
for warning forecasting and elimination of negative moral
degradation effects?
4. How to transform national and regional statistical offices (e.g.
EUROSTAT) into offices for statistic and warning forecasting.
Conference II: Computer simulation
methods for SD-economy (2009)
Main tasks:
1. How to build information bases of SD-economy.
2. How to make possible complex accounting of benefits
and cost of socio-economic activity (including natural
and social - human components).
3. How to make possible dividing effects of social
process of work proportionally to ecosocial usefulness of
individual and/or collective work.
Conference III: Flexible automation as
important agent of sustainable
development (2011)
Main tasks:
1. How to aid, by flexible automation, the elimination of
rapidly emergence dangers.
2. How to aid the fight with negative effects of moral
degradation of forms of life?
3. How to accelerate other science-technology progress
that is essential for sustainable development?
4. How to decrease ecological costs of distant
transportation?
We
- Sustainable Development
Information Society Forum – Poland will appreciate
subsidy for
the first stage
of above research
and
Conference I
of this complex, international project
Realization of above
ICT development proposal
is essential especially for:
- INTERNALIZING EXTERNALITIES;
- DECOUPLING
(the range of economic growth from
the range of deficit natural resources depletion
growth and degradation of environment),
and
- COUPLING
(the economic growth with social development,
including popular quality of life growth).
Without realization
of such as above
WSIS follow-up
it is impossible to:
- conduct proper e-Governance;
- achieve sustainable development of the
world society,
as well as
- avoid global catastrophe.
Justification of above conclusions, inter alia, see:
Michnowski, L.:
- Jak żyć? Ekorozwój albo ... (How to Live? Eco-development or ..., http://www.psl.org.pl/kte/books.htm ;
- How to Create Sustainable Development Global Information
Society?, Poster for "Global Dialogue 2004" http://www.psl.org.pl/kte/postergd.pdf ;
- How to avoid the global catastrophe? The information basis for
sustainable development policy and economy, in proceedings of the XX International
Conference System Dynamics Society: Collegiality - a harmony that achieves consensus on
the issues, July 25 - 29, 2004, Oxford, UK http://www.psl.org.pl/kte/howtoavoid.pdf ;
- World Warning Forecasting for Sustainable Development - POSTER
presentation on the XX International Conference System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August
1, 2002, Palermo, ITALY - http://www.psl.org.pl/kte/posterp.htm ;
- World Integrated Warning Forecasting System Based on System
Dynamics Principles as a Basic Factor in Sustainable Development , in proceedings of the
XX International Conference System Dynamics Society: Organizational Change Dynamics Understanding Systems, Managing Transformation, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, ITALY
http://www.psl.org.pl/kte/740Michnowski.pdf
See also: ITU, Golden Book, p-t 7.6 - http://www.itu.int/wsis/goldenbook/Publication/GBfinal.pdf, www.itu.int/wsis/goldenbook , http://www.itu.int/ibs/sg/wsis/panel.html and
http://www.itu.int/wsis/docs/pcip/misc/polish_council.pdf,.