Transcript The Conflicts about Russian Energy Policy

The Conflicts about
Russian Energy Policy
Christoph Gross
Nina Jentl
Martin Steindl
1 Primary Energy Sources




global player of primary energy sources in the
world
largest reserves of natural gas and oil
significant part of worldwide demand covered
by Russia
also big sources


Coal
Uranium
1.1 Oil (I)



after the collapse of the Soviet Union
decrease in the production to 50%
Peak  575 million tons per year
Last years




increase oil price
more investments in technology
increase in production
oil production


70% export
30% refined locally
1.1 Oil (II)

export routs




Transneft-controlled pipelines


Druzhba pipeline to Central and Eastern Europe
Primorsk port
via Black Sea
Majority of Russia’s oil exports
non-transneft-controlled


Around 0,3 million tonns
Via other sea routes or via rail
1.1 Oil (III)

proposed oil pipeline routes and pipeline
expansion projects

Russia plans to build and extend their pipeline
system all over the world






Adria Reversal Project
Baltic Pipeline System (BPS) Expansion
Caspian Pipeline Consortium Expansion
Kharyaga Indiga
Murmansk
Eastern Pipeline
1.2 Natural Gas (I)



largest known natural gas reserves of any
state on earth
gas sector  key strategic importance
2006

World‘s biggest gas producer


22% of global natural gas production
world‘s biggest exporter
1.2 Natural Gas (II)
1.2 Natural Gas (III)

Gazprom



Russian gas monopolist
produces the whole natural gas for Russia
needs to boost its production



to fulfil longterm aim of increasing European sales
to secure more reliable export routes
Gazprom‘s production is expected to decline in
the next for years
1.3 Coal


Russia has the world‘s second largest
recoverable coal reserves behind the US
2006


Production  321 million short tonnes
Consumption  260 million short tonnes


Export  61 million short tonnes
Russian government‘s strategy


Increase coal production and build more coal-fired
plants to reduce demand for natural gas
Increase exports of natural gas
2 Electricity Production (I)


Russia  fourth largest generator of electricity
behind the U.S., China and Japan
generator capacity





actual generation


68% thermal
21% hydro
10% nuclear
1% renewables
16% hydro, 16% nuclear
last decade


privatization
de-monopolization
2.1 Hydropower (I)


Large potential for medium hydro power
projects
Most of the potential hydropower resources
are located




in Central and Eastern Siberia
in the Far East
North Caucasus
Western part of the Urals
2.1 Hydropower (II)
2.2 Nuclear Energy


Russia  first country to have an operating nuclear
energy plant
currently  31% operating nuclear plants with
almost 22GW of capacity



half of them are based on the same designs as the
Chernobyl plant
many are nearing their working lifetime
outlook


double nuclear output by 2020
an additional 28GW is planned
2.3 Renewable Energy

geothermal potential very high


solar power is reasonable despite countrey‘s
location


theoretical resource estimates oh high temperature steam,
water and brine at greater then 3 000 MWe
Highest potential in the southern regions
bad development of renewable energy projects
because of




Lack of a legislative mandate
Low electric and heat tariffs
Low public demand
Overall lack of investment capital due to economic
instability
3 Energy in foreign policy

Russia has recently been accused of using
ist natural resources as a policy tool to act
against offending countries

More than 55 energy incidents since 1991


More than 30 had political unterdpinnings
During the Cold War Russia never disrupted
energy supplies to the West

Russian officials like to remind the West of that
fact
3.1 Georgia (I)

January 2006  alleged North Ossetia
sabotage



two simultaneous explosions occurred on the
Mozdok-Tbilisi pipeline
electricity transmission line in KarachayevoCherkessiya also brought down by an explosion
October  Several wrangels between
Moscow and Tbilisi with action like


arrests of four Russians accused of being spies
boykott of Georgian spirits
3.1 Georgia (II)

November 2006  Gazprom announced the
construction of a direct gas pipeline to South
Ossetia


work on the pipeline started just before South Ossetia‘s
referendum on separating from Georgia (Nov. 12)
Gazprom doubled price of gas to $235 per 1 000 cubic
meters
 highest among CIS countries
 forced Georgia to search for alternative energy supplies
 Tbilisi aggread to buy enough Azeri gas from Turkey to help
meet its energy needs für 2007
3.1 Georgia (III)

August 2008  military conflict between
Russia and Georgia over the Autonomous
region of South Ossetia


had been independent from Georgia since early
199s
is likely to shift the balance of power between
the main players

influences the formation of future Caspian and
Russian energy sector
3.2 Ukraine (I)




March 2005  start of Russian Gazprom and Ukraine over
natural gas prices
 much of the gas delivered to Ukraine originates in
Turkmenistan
 is cheaper but must transit through Gazprom-controlled
pipelines
beginning of 2006  Russia greatly increased the price of
gas for Ukraine
 to bring it in line with market values
Kiew and Moscow settled on a five year deal
 shoud raise the price of Ukraine‘s gas to $95 per 1000 cubic
meters
Russia has accused Ukraine of siphoning off its Europebound gas in the past
3.2 Ukraine (II)


Russia and Ukraine were unable to reach an
agreement
January 1, 2006  Russia cut gas exports to
Ukraine



supply was restored on January 4
preliminary agreement was settled
other disputes


October 2007 and January 2009
 Disputes resulted in 18 European countries reporting major
falls or cut-offs of their gas supplies from Russia
transported through Ukraine
Supply restarted on 20 January 2009, fully restored on 21
January 2009