Transcript Document 7620598

From Persuasion to
Coercion
Russia & Ukraine
Energy Crisis Case
International Conflict Group
Fundamentals of Conflict Studies
Prof. Catherine Gerard
Presentation Outline
• Discussion on persuasion & coercion
• Energy Structure: Russia – Ukraine
• Tit-for-Tat
• Analysis
• Group Exercise
• Conclusion
Three Types of Inducements
• Persuasive inducements
• Rewards as inducements
Persuasion
Coercion
• Coercive inducements
• All three alternatives
combined to form
conflict strategy
Reward
Persuasive Inducements
• Persuasive inducements are efforts to influence an
opponent by communicating arguments, information, or
appeals that alter their perception of the conflict. If
effective, the tactic of persuasion involves the recipient
becoming convinced of the other's goal and voluntarily
accepting it. Can be appeals to shared values or trying to
convince other party what you want is also good for them.
• Rewards can play a role in persuasion. Money, land, access.
Coercive Inducements
• Coercion, or negative sanctions. Coercion refers to actions,
including symbolic ones that injure or threaten injury to the
adversary. The actions are intended to intimidate and deter the
adversary from acting coercively themselves, and/or to force the
opponent to yield to one's demands. The cessation of coercion is
conditional on the opponent's compliance with these demands.
• Can be threatened or actual acts. Usually coercion is threaten first.
• Violent coercion and non-violent coercion. Violent coercion
includes: acts of terrorism, sabotage, assassination, military
attacks, and police suppression. Coercion can also be nonviolent:
withholding purchases or services, as in boycotts or strikes
When persuasive/coercive
tactics are used
PERSUASION
COERCION
• Use rewards in closing
stages of a conflict.
• To induce an adversary
to change against their
will”
• Use rewards to
transform a conflict
• In combination with
coercion
• In combination with
non-coercive tactics
Four factors affect the escalation
tactics and strategies
•
the disputants' goals in the conflict
•
their internal characteristics
•
the relations between them
•
their social environment.
Energy Structure:
Russia-Ukraine
Russia
• 22% of the world's total annual natural gas
production.
• Has a fifth of the world’s known reserves of natural
gas.
• Presently supplies about 25% of Europe's natural gas
imports through Ukraine (Soyuz, Brotherhood) and
Belarus (Yamal-Europe pipeline)
Gas Production Chart
Ukraine
• 4th largest importer and 6th largest consumer of natural gas
in the world
• Corresponds to 85% of its annual energy needs
• Highly dependent on imported gas from Russia
• Important transmission site for gas exported from Russia to
Western Europe
• Gas transmission system is the second largest on the
continent
Pipeline System: Russia to Ukraine
• Ukraine has approximately 35,600 kilometers of gas
pipelines, all operated by Naftogaz
• Druzhba Pipeline (“friendship pipeline”) transports
large quantities of Russian oil/gas to Europe
• Countries include: Russia, Ukraine, Germany,
Poland, Hungary, Belarus, Czech Republic, etc.
• Disputes addressing taxation rights and ownership
of the pipeline territory have occurred between
Russia and Ukraine
Existing and planning pipeline to EU
Background
• CIS formed in Dec 1st 1991
• Non-payment leads to shutting down supply (1992)
• Gazprom and Naftogaz signed an 11 year Contract in
2002
• Addendum 4 (2004) fixed prices and rent per 1000 cubic
meters
Crisis Builds Up
• Moscow to continue subsidizing gas contingent upon political
considerations
• Orange Revolution (2004)
• Gas price increased worldwide (2005)
• Russia demands for price adjustment ($160)
• Ukraine refuses relying on legal contract
• Russia’s new demand increases ($230)
From Persuasion to Coercion
• Russia offers to increase rent to Ukraine to $ 1.74 ( Tariffs
range from $ 0.9 to $ 2.7 )
• Ukraine offered to pay price increase in weapons and also
agreed to gradual increase
• Russia argues they are paying for Ukrainian gas and offers
a consortium
• Ukraine threatens to revise Black Sea Fleet Contract
• Russia refuses to revise the lease rate as it was against the
provisions of the 1997 Treaty
Tipping the Scale
• Ukraine strengthens ties with the West
• Russia issues ultimatum to turn off gas supply
• Ukraine suggests international arbitration on Dec
13th 2005
• Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhamrov visits Moscow for
talks on Dec 19th to phase the hike
• Russia offers a $ 3.6 billion loan to Ukraine to
offset price increase
• Also agrees to postpone increase to April 2006
contingent upon immediate agreement on price
For your entertainment
Interests & Motivations
Interests & Motivations
• Rights of Pipeline
Russia:
--- Pro-Moscow president at the Ukraine
--- Market Prices
--- Secure supply (aging infrastructure)
Ukraine:
--- Political Independence
--- Secure Energy source
Timeline Exercise
• Identify when persuasion and/or coercion was used
• Succinctly comment on its effectiveness
• Discuss better Alternatives (if any)
e.g. Interest-based Negotiation
Mediation
Litigation
Timeline Exercise
Results
• Strengthening of the Orange Revolution
• Election of pro-western democratic leader
• Russian finacial support (3.6bn loan)
• Wake-up call to EU’s dependence on Russian energy
supplies
• EU to diversify energy sources
Debrief
• Conditions when Persuasion is a better tactic
• Conditions when Coercion is a better tactic
• Mixing the tactics to obtain the most beneficial
outcome
For your entertainment Continued
Aftermath
• Russia resumes supply of gas to Ukraine on 3rd Jan
2006
• Agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine
on 4th Jan 2006
• Gazprom receives $ 230 for Gas
• Ukraine receives $ 1.60 as enhanced tariff
Thank you