Transcript esruc.atauni.edu.tr

In the modern Georgian press
due attention is paid to the construction of the pipe line
Baku Tbilisi - Ceyhan and Baku - Tbilisi - Erzurum.
Considerations expressed in Georgian press is briefly
introduced in this article.
Prof. Dr. Roin Kavrelishvili
Rector of Akhalkalaki State Higher Educational Institution (Georgia)
And
Professor
of Akhaltsikhe(Georgia) and Ardahan (Turkey) State University
 Georgia, located on the border of
Europe and Central Asia is a linking
bridge of some important economic
regions. The nearest route of oil and
gas transit from Central Asia to
Western Europe passes through
Georgia. Significant part is being acted
by the Black Sea ports, railway
infrastructure and airports in
connceting eastern and western parts
of world.
 In order to be realized energy aspirations of Asia and
Europe, Georgia is becoming more and more
interesting. Currently four transport corridors to be
already operated by 2015 passing through Georgia are
being reviewed.Pursuant to the statement of experts
the most favourable way is the corridor of Caucasus
providing delivery of various origins gas to market. Not
only one, but several oil and gas pipelines should be
passed through Georgia. In this case country will have
higher security guarantee.
 Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline provides
oil transportation by passing Georgia
from Baku to Turkey and its terminal is
Seaport of Turkey, called Ceyhan
located on Mediterranean Sea, after
that oil is supplied to European market
by liquid carriers (tankers).
Dynamic cooperation is
among three countries in
South Caucasian Region –
Georgia, Azerbaijan and
Turkey, that has a structure
oriented on specific results
especially within last period:
 1. Favorable trilateral and multilateral political dialogue;
 2. Cooperation within the frameworks of international
organization;
 3. Regional cooperation aiming maintenance of security
and sustainable economic growth in region.
 4. It is significant to be cooperated from the standpoint
of provision energetic security of Georgia and complete
application of energy and transportation potential of
region. Such considerable projects are linked with the
three of those countries, as Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil and
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline. Cooperation is
successfully being developed in energy sector. It is
important to be implemented Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway
trunk line project.

Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Oil
and
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum Gas
Pipeline Projects
 Statement on construction Baku-Tbilisi-
Ceyhan oil and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas
pipeline was made by presidents of Georgia,
Azerbaijan and Turkey in Baku in September
18, 2002 [1].
 In July 13, 20006 Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil
pipeline was officially opened. Though,
shipment activities were launched before, in
June 2. Oil pipeline is equipped with 8
pumping stations and 98 special valves. Its
constraction covered approximately 4 lilliard
USD [2].
 Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline is 1760 km. long line
and its function is to provide transportation of crude
oil from Azerbaij Chirag-Guneshli oil depost in the
Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. It passes Baku,
Tbilisi and ends in Ceyhan in Mediterranean Sea Port
of Turkey. It is the second longest oil pipeline
throughout the world (the first is Druzhba oil pipeline
providing oil transportation from Russia to Europe)
[3]. 443 kilometers of oil pipeline is located on the
territory of Azerbaijan, 248 km on Georgia and 1768
km on the territory of Turkey. Shareholders of oil
pipeline are BP (30,1%), SOCAR (25%), CHERVON
(8,9%), STATOIL (8,71%), TRAO (6,53%), ITOCHU
(3,4%), AMERADA HESS (2,36%), ENI (5%),
CONOCOPHILIPS (2,5%), IXPEX (2,5%), TOTAL (5%)
[4].
 In May 2005 was launched
transportation of oil via Baku-TbilisiCeyhan oil pipeline. But in October
2005 presidents of Georgia, Azerbaijan
and Turkey officially opened Georgian
line of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan in
Gardaban. As a result of handling
aforesaid oil pipeline by way of direct
transit incomes, budget of Georgia will
have 50 mln. USD during project’s
operation [5].
Stand of America
regarding BakuTbilisi-Ceyhan
According to the standpoint of
American Congressman from
Republican Party, John McCain
“Russia will utilize oil and gas as a
strategic instrument and USD is to
be harassed by the security of
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, international
oil pipeline passing through
Georgia.
 Russia owns great wealth of oil and its great
influence became strategic instrument at
the world oil and gas market that will be
applied by Russia. Georgia holds strategic
crossroad in Caucasus. Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
oil pipeline providing oil transportation
from the Caspian Sea to the west passes the
territory of Georgia. If this oil pipeline is
destroyed or is under control of Russia,
energetic supply of Europe will become
more dependent on Russia [6].
 Caspian Sea Project Chairman of the Center for
Strategic and International Studies in Washington,
Bulent Aliriza comments on USA stand related to oil
pipeline project: “this historical fact would not take
place if there is no cooperation among three countries
of region – Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan and of
course USA support. What about the American
delegation introduced at the inauguration, there was
invited USA President. Though, he was in Germany
under official visit. So, it was impossible for him to
arrive in Turkey. Though, delegation attending this
ceremony by the assistant of deputy state secretary
and other officials does not mean that USA pays less
attention to the construction of oil pipeline within its
foreign priorities” [7].
Stand of Russia
towards BakuTbilisi-Ceyhan Oil
Pipeline
 The same Bulent Aliriza expresses its opinion on the
stand of Russia regarding aforesaid project: “as far as it
is political initiative and uniform political statement –
it is obvious that Russia has a negative response. This
oil pipeline reduces monopoly of Russia on energy
line. President of Russia was invited at the
inauguration of project. Though, he did not attend it
that is also the evidence of the stand of Russia.
Though, Russia and Turkey have good partnership
relations with each other. On the same background
Russia would possibly abstain from great opposition,
because Turkey is important partner for them.
Notwithstanding aforesaid issue, it is not excluded to
have again faced problems regarding Georgia from
Moscow and fear that Russia will show its stand more
strictly in relation to Georgia [7].
Prospects of
Regional
Cooperation
 At present Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline is not
completely operated and is able to lead even additional
volumes. Plenty of companies are interested in this
pipeline. At this stage Russian giant “LUKOIL” is being
planning to lead oil through Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan.
Caspian oil that extraction was launched by the
company in April possibly may pass through this
pipeline. Currently negotiations with operators are
being conducted by Russian party regarding the tariffs
of transportation. Also it desires to have even a share
from LUKOIL project, because exactly in this case
transportation will be more profitable for them.
 According to the explanation of representative
of the company “RUSENERGY”, Mikhail
Krutikhin, currently two tariffs are active on the
application of this system for the participants
of consortium and foreign companies. That is
why according to the Kutikhin’s statement it is
profitable for “LUKOIL” to apply this pipeline
only if Russian company becomes the member
of consortium [8]. Under the supposition of
experts, complete transportation of oil streams
mainly will depend on the prospects of growth
of conduction and load of two pipelines.
 In the event of complete loading of Baku-
Tbilisi-Ceyhan and the growth of Caspian
pipeline consortium (CPC) conduction
passing through Russia, it will be possible to
regularly supply oil streams at world market
planned by 2015, but (CPC) in case of
maintenance of existed conduction in order
to be provided free transportation of oil it
will be essential to additionally expend the
powers of various transportation systems
(pipeline, railway, SWAP) with quite a little
conduction.
 According to the calculations of experts,
upon transportation of Kazakhstan oil in
future more advantageous will be the
pipeline (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) than CPC.
At the same time, if you take into account
tense relations between Russia and
Azerbaijan caused due to the disagreement
on gas prices, prospects on development of
oil transportation routes by avoiding the
territory of Russia are clear.
Lately, extraction of oil from Tengiz
(Kazakhstan) deposit is grown by
12 mln. tons. In 2007 agreement is
negotiated that considers oil
transportation from Tengiz deposit
by passing the Caspian Sea to Baku,
after that oil will be shipped by
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline at the
world market.
For 2015 it is difficult to imagine
complete view on the
transportation of oil streams,
because it depends on many
difficultly predicting factors.
Among them on intensity of oil
extraction in Azerbaijan and
Kazakhstan (Kashagan) oil
deposits.
In case of reduction of
development of pessimistic
prospect scenario and
extraction of oil in Azerbaijan
oil deposits by 2015, the growth
of oil export will be
compensated by growing
extraction in Kashagan
(Kazakhstan) deposit.
 This scenario will slightly change the case of
oil transportation in region. Baku-TbilisiCeyhan pipeline remains as one of the major
and stable transportation system in the
region. Under the basis of current case,
instead of 90% shipped Azerbaijani oil via
Georgia/Azerbaijan transportation systems
(railway/pipeline), by 2015 approximately
40-50% will have oil from Kazakhstan. Thus,
share of Russia in general export may be
decreased to 38%.
 Development of optimistic scenario will be
significant examination for transportation
systems of region. In the event of additional
transportation of oil from Kazakhstan - 45
mln. Tons and from Azerbaijan - 17 mln. tons
there will be applied conductivity of major
transportation pipelines in region: BakuTbilisi-Ceyhan and CPC. Though, in the
event of complete consumption of powers of
major pipelines, by that time there may be
applied even reserve of conduction of Russia
and Azerbaijan/Georgia Railway Systems.
If such scenario takes place then
one third of region’s export will
be oriented towards Russia,
almost half 50% towards
Caucasus and 10% towards
China.
 Today, main volumes of Caspian oil and oil products
will be shipped by four major transport routes:
 - Today, 66% oil export of Caspian region to
European markets by northern and western
pipelines and railway lines of Russia will be shipped
via Russian territory;
 - Via transport infrastructure of Azerbaijan and
Georgia will be shipped (22%) to European markets;
 - Via transport infrastructure of Iran will be shipped
(8%) to Asian markets;
 - Will be shipped (4%) via pipeline towards China
[9].
Bibliography
 1. www.matsne.gov.ge
 2. www.Radiokalaki.ge
 3. www.wikipedia.org
 4. Newspaper ,,24 Saati’’, 12.04.2011
 5. www.gogc.ge
 6. www.business.info.ge
 7. Ana Kalandadze, www.vianews.com 14.07.2006
 8. Maka Kharazishvili, Georgia is apparent country on
energetic map, newspaper “Rezonansi”, 13.10.2010
 9. Paata Tsagareishvili, Gogita Gvenetadze, energy
corridors and prospects on diversification of Caspian oil
streams, Magazine “Business & Management”, # 3 (19),
2008.

In the modern Georgian press
due attention is paid to the construction of the pipe line Baku Tbilisi - Ceyhan and Baku - Tbilisi - Erzurum.
Considerations expressed in Georgian press is briefly introduced in
this article.
Prof. Dr. Roin Kavrelishvili
Rector of Akhalkalaki State Higher Educational Institution (Georgia)
and Professor
of Akhaltsikhe(Georgia) and Ardahan (Turkey) State University