Transcript Document
Ecosystem Based Modeling for Sustainable Regional Development of the Marine and Estuarine Resources in Coastal NSW Philip Gibbs Karen Astles
The Program & Linkages
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DPI/CSIRO 5 year collaboration ‘Umbrella program’
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Comprehensive Coastal Assessment Enhanced decision support tools for NRM action plans (phase 2)
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Northern Rivers CMA (CLAM project) Initial project in Clarence Estuary CSIRO National Research Flagships ‘Wealth from Oceans’ theme
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Objectives
Modelling frameworks for a multiple – use management of coastal environments
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Develop and apply models of the ecosystem and human activities
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Design and evaluate potential ‘monitoring programs’ Broad “Whole of Landscape” Modelling
Management Objectives
Program Outline
Building virtual ecosystem (Operating model) Data Management strategy/ scenarios Atlantis Biogeochemical model Monitoring/ adaptive management Policy formation Management responses Presentation of outputs to decision makers
Ecosystem Modelling & Monitoring
impacts
Human activities Management
Interface Between
Stakeholders Management Science
Climate Change
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National Adaptation Framework Coastal Vulnerability Assessment
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Increasing Temperature Rainfall:- variability, total amount, ENSO Sea level rise Increasing ocean acidity
Likely Impacts
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Ocean current changes Storm surges Freshwater flow to estuaries
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Habitat change Recruitment patterns fish & invertebrates Biodiversity, Threatened species, Marine pests Socio economic effects
Tools
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Spatial biogeochemical model with coupled physical transport ‘ATLANTIS’
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Physical box model in 3 dimensions
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Nutrient flow (nitrogen silica), mass balance of functional groups (physical, O 2 CO 2 , living, detritus)
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Trophic dynamics (food web) of primary & secondary producers / consumers (phytoplankton to dolphins)
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Growth, mortality, recruitment, migration, consumption, excretion, predation, habitat dependency
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Computational limit
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“What if” Scenarios
Timeframe 1950 to 2030
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Fisheries management – catch, effort, gear, zoning, closures, by-catch
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Climate change
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Land-use
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Increasing population and urbanisation
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Socio economic change
The Future
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Finer resolution of the shelf model nearshore component
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Explicit representation of Marine Parks
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Second estuary with a focus on urban rather than agricultural inputs
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Coupling of estuary and shelf models
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Documentation of the “what if” outputs
Is Ecosystem Modelling Possible?
Plants and Animals
Geophysical environment People (social)
Politics
Economics