Transcript Slide 1

THE GLOBEC GOAL
To advance our understanding of the structure and
functioning of the global ocean ecosystem, its major
subsystems, and its response to physical forcing so
that a capability can be developed to forecast the
responses of the marine ecosystem to global change.
GLOBEC STRUCTURE
GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee
REGIONAL
PROGRAMMES
RESEARCH FOCI
1 - Retrospective
Analysis WG
GLOBEC I.P.O.
2 - Process Studies WG
PICES- Climate Change
and Carrying Capacity
ICES- Cod and
Climate Change
3 - Prediction and
Modelling WG
Southern Ocean
GLOBEC
4 - Feedback from
Ecosystem Changes WG
Small Pelagic fish And
Climate Change
National
Activities
Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France,
Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Mexico,
Norway, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine,
USA, UK
Multinational
Activities
BENEFIT (S. AFRICA]
NATFISH (N. AFRICA)
OFCCP (Eq. Pacific)
LIFECO (EC]
TASC (EC)…
REGIONAL
PROGRAMMES
Cod and Climate Change Programme (ICES-CCC)
500
3
400
2.5
300
2
200
1.5
100
1
0
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
0.5
2000
Temperature
Landings in thousand tonnes
Cod catch at Greenland
This programme investigates
the effect of climate variability
on cod stock fluctuations,
ranging from the effects of
small-scale turbulence on
encounter rates between fish
larvae and their prey, to largescale effects of inter-decadal
changes in wind fields on
circulation and transport of
heat and young fish.
Cod catches have followed environmental trends in
recent decades. Has fishing limited the capacity
of cod to respond to favourable environments?
REGIONAL
PROGRAMMES
Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (PICES-CCCC)
1.0
Shrimp
Cod/ Pollock
0.6
Flatfish
1998
1989
1980
1971
Other
1962
1953
0.2
The community structure of the North Pacific has
changed over the last decades. How is this
affecting the functioning of the system?
This activity develops a
theoretical and
mathematical
framework which
extends the concept of
carrying capacity into
the multi-species
ecosystem domain. It
addresses how climate
change affects
ecosystem structure
and the productivity of
key biological species
at all trophic levels in
the North Pacific.
REGIONAL
PROGRAMMES
Southern Ocean Programme (SO-GLOBEC)
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
10
8
6
4
2
Area covered with ice
This programme is focused
on understanding how
physical forces influence
1999
population dynamics and
predator/ prey interactions
between key species.
1999
Antarctic krill has peaks of abundance on “goodice years”. How do climate fluctuations (and thus
ice cover) affect krill and its predators?
REGIONAL
PROGRAMMES
Catch (relative units)
Small Pelagic Fishes and Climate Change (SPACC)
European sardine
Japanese sardine
Peruvian sardine
Alaska pollock
Pacific salmon
Chilean Jack mackerel
Californian sardine 100
-100
-300
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
-500
Pelagic fish globally seem to fluctuate in
synchrony. What drives this patterns?
The long-range goal is to
forecast how the
productivity of small
pelagic fish populations
will be altered by climate
variability and change.
SPACC will involve
process studies, based
on comparisons of
standard measurements
from different
ecosystems, and
retrospective studies built
around palaeoecological
and genetic data.
GLOBEC STRUCTURE
GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee
REGIONAL
PROGRAMMES
RESEARCH FOCI
1 - Retrospective
Analysis WG
GLOBEC I.P.O.
2 - Process Studies WG
PICES- Climate Change
and Carrying Capacity
ICES- Cod and
Climate Change
3 - Prediction and
Modelling WG
Southern Ocean
GLOBEC
4 - Feedback from
Ecosystem Changes WG
Small Pelagic fish And
Climate Change
National
Activities
Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France,
Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Mexico,
Norway, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine,
USA, UK
Multinational
Activities
BENEFIT (S. AFRICA]
NATFISH (N. AFRICA)
OFCCP (Eq. Pacific)
LIFECO (EC]
TASC (EC)…
GLOBEC
Focus 4
“Feedbacks from Changes in Marine Ecosystem
Structure”
General Objective:
To co-operate with other ocean, atmospheric, terrestrial
and social global change research programmes to
estimate feedbacks from changes in marine ecosystem
structure to the global earth system
GLOBEC Focus 4, Activity 4.3
Social Impacts of Changes in Marine Ecosystems
Working Group Goals:
1)
2)
3)
To understand the interactions between marine
coastal communities and global changes in marine
ecosystems;
To understand the capacity of these communities to
adjust to these changes;
To understand the consequences of these adjustments
for marine ecosystems.
Interactions of Environmental and Societal Changes
Disaster
Community Coping
Capacity
Marine
Ecosystem
Change
Current situation
Coping Capacity Decreasing
Resilience
Marine Ecosystem
Changes Increasing
Coping Capacity
Vulnerability
Disaster
Marine Ecosystem Change
Situation resulting from global changes
Modified from M. Brklacich, 2002. Pers. Comm.
Several issues complicate study of these interactions:
1. Scale
•
What are the scales at which marine ecosystems and coastal communities
interact?
•
What are the scales of environmental change compared with scales on which
humans have the ability to change and adapt.
•
How to move between scales when the drivers are global but the impacts
local?
2. Knowledge
•
Open” and “Closed” knowledge systems – e.g. publicly available, local
knowledge, or group-based.
•
How best to exchange and to incorporate scientific and local knowledge into
decision-making?
3. Values
•
How to assign value to ecosystem states, e.g. is an system which supports
Atlantic cod inherently better than one that supports northern shrimp?
Example case study: Atlantic cod in Newfoundland
Example case study: Atlantic cod in Newfoundland
The collapse of cod has been severe social disruption in Newfoundland. In
addition to the social displacements, there have been changes in the ways
that coastal communities use the marine ecosystems:
Source:
• have expanded into previously un-fished species,
The• Newfoundland
Fishery:
Descriptive
Analysis
have expanded
into A
new
locations,
Noel
University)
• Roy
are (Memorial
using previous
fishing grounds for species other than cod.
Symposium on the Efficiency of North Atlantic Fisheries; Iceland,
Result
is potential
for significant negative impacts on the marine ecosystem,
September
12-13, 1997
http://www.ucs.mun.ca/~noelroy/NfFishery.text.html
and
on the recovery of cod.
Working Group Approach
• Develop a review/appraisal paper on the topic “What are
the impacts of marine ecosystem changes on coastal
communities?”.
Case studies might include: Peru and changes induced by
El Nino oscillations; NW Atlantic groundfish collapses
• Explore “significant issues”, starting with “Scale” (a MS
has been submitted)
• Develop models coupling marine ecosystem changes with
the socio-economic system.
• Develop active links with other relevant programs,
e.g. GECaFS, by exploring these issues for the marine
ecosystems of Peru, Chile and Ecuador; or possibly the
Caribbean?
USA
Canada
Mexico
Peru
Chile
Brazil
Angola
Namibia
South Africa
Morocco
Mauritania
Senegal
Australia
New Zealand
New Caledonia
Japan
Korea
China
Russia
Ukraine
Turkey
Spain
Portugal
Italy
Germany
France
UK
Netherlands
Denmark
Norway
Countries participating in GLOBEC
activities at national or Regional level
For more information: Contact Manuel Barange
(GLOBEC Executive Officer), [email protected], or
Ian Perry (Focus 4 co-chair), [email protected]. www.globec.org