GLOBEC, Focus 4 and SPACC…

Manuel Barange, GLOBEC IPO. Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK. [email protected]

, www.globec.org

GOAL: “To advance our understanding of the structure and functioning of the global ocean ecosystem , its major subsystems, and its response to physical forcing so that a capability can be developed to forecast the responses of the marine ecosystem to global change ”.

GLOBEC’s Objectives:

• 1- To better understand how multiscale physical environmental processes force large-scale changes in marine ecosystems • 2- To determine the relationship between structure and dynamics in a variety of oceanic systems which typify significant components of the global ocean ecosystem • 3- To determine the impacts of global change on stock dynamics using coupled physical, chemical and biological models linked to appropriate observation systems • 4- To determine how changing marine ecosystems will affect the global earth system by identifying and quantifying feedback mechanisms

GLOBEC FOCUSES ON ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE

• …underpinned by the belief that understanding the role of variability in the functioning of marine ecosystems is essential to manage marine living resources.

… YET ASPIRES TO BE POLICY RELEVANT

Reykjavik Declaration on Responsible Fisheries in the Marine Ecosystem (FAO 2001): signed by over 100 fishing nations and committing them to undertake research in pursue of Ecosystem-Based-Fisheries-Management … we will undertake to...: ...identify and describe the structure, components and functioning of relevant marine ecosystems, diet composition and food webs, species interactions and predator-prey relationships, the role of habitat and the biological, physical and oceanographic factors affecting ecosystem stability and resilience (in other words: GLOBEC research);

USA Canada Mexico Peru Chile Brazil Angola Namibia South Africa Morocco Mauritania Senegal Australia New Zealand New Caledonia Japan Korea China Russia Ukraine Turkey Spain Portugal Italy Germany France UK Netherlands Denmark Norway

Countries participating in GLOBEC activities at national, multinational or Regional level

RESEARCH FOCI

o Retrospective Analysis Working Group o Process Studies WG o Prediction and Modelling WG

GLOBEC STRUCTURE

GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee GLOBEC International Project Office REGIONAL PROGRAMMES

o PICES-GLOBEC Climate Change and Carrying Capacity oICES-GLOBEC Cod and Climate Change oSouthern Ocean GLOBEC oFeedback from Ecosystem Changes WG National / Multinational Activities oSmall Pelagic fish And Climate Change (SPACC) In preparation: - Large Pelagics - Sub-Arctic Ecosystems

1.0

0.6

0.2

Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (PICES-CCCC)

Shrimp Cod/ Pollock Flatfish Other 1979

Cod and Climate Change Programme (ICES-CCC)

Southern Ocean Programme (SO-GLOBEC)

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON OCEANIC TOP PREDATORS (CLIOTOP). Leader: P Lehodey, New Caledonia; O Maury, France 2 60 - 20 - 30 - 40 - 50 - 60 - 70 - 80 - 90 - 100 - 110 - 120 - 130 - 140 - 150 - 160 - 170 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 - 10 - 20 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 - 10 - 20 - 30 - 40 - 50 50 40 30 20 10 0 - 10 - 20 - 30 - 40 - 50 - 60 - 20 - 30 - 40 - 50 - 60 - 70 - 80 - 90 - 100 - 110 - 120 - 130 - 140 - 150 - 160 - 170 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Total prises 90-97 YFT SKJ BET BFT ALB 8000 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 - 10 - 60 - 20 1 0 -1 -2 1650

Ravier & Fromentin 2001: ICES J Mar Sci 58

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950

ECOSYSTEM STUDIES OF SUBARCTIC SEAS (ESAS). Leader: G Hunt, USA

Small Pelagic Fishes and Climate Change (SPACC)

The long-range goal is to forecast how the productivity of small pelagic fish populations will be altered by climate variability and change. SPACC will involve process studies, based on comparisons of standard measurements from different ecosystems, and retrospective studies built around palaeoecological and genetic data.

Chairpersons : Claude Roy (France)/ Dave Checkley (USA)

1% 7% 1% 15% 14% 10% 8%

What are SPACC’s challenges?

- The urgency of stock assessments - Luxury science for developing countries?

- Geographical distance between scientists Lack of administrative “home” - The science itself

30% Flounders, halibuts, soles Cods, hakes, haddocks Redfishes, basses, conge Jacks, mullets, sauries Herrings, sardines, anchovies Tunas, bonitos, billfish Mackerels, snoeks, cutlassfishes Sharks, rays, chimaeras Miscell marine fishes

Why SPACC?

Small pelagic fish account for 1/3 of world’s catches - Worldwide distribution - Abundant in similar environments (upwelling regions) - Major importance for the economy of developing regions - Vulnerable to decadal variability in environment

14%

SPACC Structure - March 2000

SPACC Executive Committee 2003

J Alheit (Germany) M Barange (UK) T Baumgartner (Mexico) L Castro (Chile) D Checkley (USA- co- Chair) R Guevara (Peru) L Motos (Spain) H Nakata (Japan) C Roy (France- co-Chair) C van der Lingen (South Africa) … to develop comparative integration activities, in support of existing field work, along four research themes:   

Long term Changes in Ecosystems Comparative Population Dynamics



Reproductive Habitat Dynamics Economic Implications of Climate Change

Theme 1: Long term Changes in Ecosystems

Lead: J Alheit/ T Baumgartner

30 Pacific Anchovy 20 10 0 900 1100 Pacific Sardine 1300 1500 1700 1900

- SUPPORT MONITORING RESEARCH PROGRAMMES, CURATE LONG TERM TIME SERIES AND PROMOTE COMPARATIVE STUDIES.

e.g. Workshop on Long-term changes in the NE and SE Pacific. Lima, Peru, May 2001. Funding: IAI-EPCOR and GLOBEC.

-

PROMOTE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PALEOCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND DEVELOP COMMON METHODOLOGIES.

e.g. GLOBEC Paleoceanographic methodology workshop. Munich, Germany, October 2001. Funding: Local.

Theme 2: Comparative Population Dynamics

Lead: M Barange (UK)

-DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL COMPARATIVE STUDIES ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF PELAGIC FISH STOCKS. e.g. Jacobson et al. 2000. Surplus production, variability and climate change in the great sardine and anchovy fisheries. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 58: 1891-1903. Funding: SCOR and GLOBEC.

-

PROMOTE USE OF ENVIRONMENTAL/ CLIMATE DATA IN FISH MANAGEMENT PROCEDURES e.g. Study group on “Use on environmental indices in the management of pelagic fish populations”. South Africa, December 2001; Paris, December 2002 (GLOBEC Spec. Contr. 5 and 6). Funding: IOC

15 Biomass ISPR 1.5

1.0

10 5 0.5

0

B

1960 1970

Japanese sardine

1980 1990 0.0

Theme 3: Reproductive Habitat Dynamics

Lead: D. Checkley (USA) and C. Roy (France)

-

DEVELOPMENT OF COMMON TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE STUDY OF SPAWNING HABITATS e.g. “Use of the CUFES for mapping spawning habitats of pelagic fish”. San Sebastian, Spain, February 2000 (GLOBEC Report 14). Funding: participants and SCOR - PROMOTE COMPARATIVE STUDIES LINKING CLIMATE CHANGE WITH SPAWNING HABITAT CHANGES, AND DEVELOP MECHANISMS TO TRANSLATE THESE CHANGES INTO MANAGEMENT ACTIONS e.g. “Small pelagic fish spawning habitat dynamics and the daily egg production method”

and “

Characterizing and Comparing the Spawning Habitats of Small Pelagic Fish”. Concepcion, Chile. Funding: Local/ IRD/ BENEFIT/ SCOR/ participants.

Theme 4: Economic Implications of Climate Change.

Lead: Sam Herrick/ Dale Squires (USA)

-

DEVELOP SCENARIO ANALYSES TO ADDRESS THE SOCIO ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGES IN PELAGIC FISH PRODUCTION e.g. “Workshop on the economics of small pelagics and climate change, Porstmouth, UK. September 2004. Funding: NOAA, SCOR, GLOBEC

RESEARCH FOCI

• Retrospective Analysis Working Group • Process Studies WG • Prediction and Modelling WG

GLOBEC STRUCTURE

GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee GLOBEC International Project Office REGIONAL PROGRAMMES

• PICES-GLOBEC Climate Change and Carrying Capacity •ICES-GLOBEC Cod and Climate Change •Southern Ocean GLOBEC • Feedback from Ecosystem Changes WG National / Multinational Activities •Small Pelagic fish And Climate Change (SPACC) In preparation: - Large Pelagics - Sub-Arctic Ecosystems

GLOBEC Focus 4 Feedbacks from Changes in Marine Ecosystem Structure

“To co-operate with other ocean, atmospheric, terrestrial and social global change research programmes to estimate feedbacks from changes in marine ecosystem structure to the global earth system”

GLOBEC Focus 4, Activity 4.3

Social Impacts of Changes in Marine Ecosystems

Goals: 1) To understand the interactions between marine coastal communities and global changes in marine ecosystems; 2) To understand the capacity of these communities to adjust to these changes; 3) To understand the consequences of these adjustments for marine ecosystems.

Interactions of Environmental and Societal Changes Disaster Community Coping Capacity Current situation Marine Ecosystem Change Resilience Coping Capacity Decreasing Marine Ecosystem Changes Increasing Coping Capacity Vulnerability Disaster Marine Ecosystem Change Situation resulting from global changes

Modified from M. Brklacich, 2002. Pers. Comm.

Change in Marine Ecosystems

• • • • • • Climate variability Internal ecosystem dynamics Fishing Habitat degradation Pollution Exotic species, new diseases • • • • • • • •

Change in Fishing Communities

Environmental change Demographic Change Technological innovations Law and property relations Policy Change Relations of production/reproduction, Gender and ethnic relations Shifting values

These interactions involve issues of: 1.

Scale (of interaction, of adaptation, drivers vs responses…) 2. Values (of ecosystem state/ fisheries) 3. Knowledge (science versus management versus Local)

CLIMATE CHANGE + OVERFISHING collapse of Atlantic cod stocks in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

-

Consequences of changes: Severe social disruption (fishery closures, plant closures, unemployment, reduced incomes, employment volatility, outmigration, shifts in property relations and power…)

Policy response (ADAPTATION) :

-

Fishing Moratorium on cod

-

Downsize fleet Income replacement measures (incl. new quotas for alternative spp)

-

Thus contributing to further marine ecosystem change.

Some Fishers Resilience (capacity to absorb change) Low Ecosystem Resilience

-

Social response (ADAPTATION): Fishing effort expands spatially and ecologically Effort intensifies on traditional grounds Effort shifts across species, down trophic levels