Transcript Marine Ecosystem Science

U.S. GLOBEC
Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics
http://www.usglobec.org
GOAL: Identify how a changing global climate will
affect the abundance and dynamics of marine
animal populations
STRATEGY: Focus on processes linking climate
variables -> physical processes in the ocean->
population dynamics of marine animals
OUTCOME: Translate knowledge of the coupling
between physical and biological processes into
assessments and predictions of the impact of
climate change on marine resources and marine
ecosystems
U.S. GLOBEC
Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics
http://www.usglobec.org
• Partnerships Within NOAA:
– Major funding and program oversight from NOS/NCCOS/CSCOR
– Shiptime and scientists from NMFS/NEFSC, NWFSC, AFSC
– Scientists from OAR/PMEL
• Partnerships Across Federal agencies:
– Partnership with National Science Foundation, funding split between NSF
and CSCOR, co-management of review and award process
– Participation of scientists from USGS, Naval Postgraduate Lab
• Partnerships Between Academic and Federal Researchers:
– Academic scientists from >25 institutions nationwide collaborate with
researchers from NMFS, OAR/ERLs and U.S. Naval Postgraduate School
– Brings cutting-edge science to Federal agencies, allows academic
researchers to see the application of their results
• International Partnerships:
– U.S. GLOBEC is a project of the US Global Change Research Program, and is
part of GLOBEC International, sponsored by Scientific Committee on
Oceanic Research and International Council for the Exploration of the Seas
– U.S. GLOBEC has a large role in the Pacific marine science organization
PICES
The GLOBEC Strategy
• Process studies for
mechanistic
understanding at limited
time periods
• Broad-scale observations
for longer-term context,
seasonal changes
• Retrospective studies for
very long-term context
• Modeling to assimilate
and synthesize findings
• Technological innovations
to fuel progress
U.S. GLOBEC Study
Areas
• Northwest Atlantic
– Density-driven
retentive circulation
• Northern California
Current
– Wind-driven upwelling
• Gulf of Alaska
– Wind and buoyancydriven seasonal
downwelling
• Southern Ocean
– Ice-dominated
GLOBEC Northeast Pacific
http://globec.oce.orst.edu/groups/nep/
• Focus on oceanic ecosystems
supporting salmon in the
Northeast Pacific Ocean
• Northern California Current
– Eastern Boundary Current
– Seasonal wind-driven upwelling
– Field seasons off Oregon coast
in 2000, 2002
• Coastal Gulf of Alaska
– Predominantly downwelling
– Circulation forced by
freshwater input and wind
– Field seasons in 2001, 2003
Coastal Gulf of Alaska
• LTOP in place
1997-2004
• Process field
studies 2001,
2003
• Focus on
cross-shelf
variability vs
alongshelf
variability
GLOBEC LTOP CGOA
- Vertical CTD-Chlorophyll-PAR
profiles along Seward Line.
- Continuous, underway
ADCP, SST, surface salinity, and
fluorescence data.
- Discrete bottle samples for
measurements of nutrients,
chlorophyll pigments, oxygen
isotope ratios, and zooplankton.
- Vertical tows for zooplankton
and microzooplankton.
- Acoustically determine
abundance and distribution of
zooplankton.
- MOCNESS tows to help form
canonical correlations with the
acoustic data.
- Gillnet and midwater trawling to
collect fish.
- Determine rates of growth and
reproduction of crustacean
zooplankton.
Results available at
http://halibut.ims.uaf.edu/GLOBEC
/results/
Cross-shelf variability
• Outer shelf diatoms
sparse, needle-shaped
• Inner shelf diatoms
centric, chain-forming
• Iron limitation on outer
shelf, small cells subject
to microzoopl. grazing
Pictures and information from Suzanne Strom,
Western Washington University
Along-shelf variability
Phyllis Stabeno, PMEL
Andy Thomas, University of Maine
Physical-Biological Modeling
Al Hermann, PMEL
Sarah Hinkley, AFSC
GLOBEC Northeast Pacific
Atmospheric Indices
http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/research/globec/RESEARCH/TELECONNECTIONS/index.html
• The NOIx (extratropical Northern Oscillation Index) and
its analog, the SOIx (extratropical Southern Oscillation
Index) are new indices of midlatitude climate
fluctuations that show interesting relationships with
fluctuations in marine ecosystems and populations.
• Counterparts to the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index)
that is a good indicator of tropical variations related to
El Niño and La Niña
GLOBEC Northeast Pacific
NOIx and Salmon relationships
Frank Schwing,
Pacific Fisheries Environmental Lab
• Similar trends in
NOIx and salmon
catch
• GLOBEC program
will provide
mechanistic
understanding of
how and why they
are related
• Potential for
management to
adapt to changing
oceanic regimes
Synthesis
• Data -> Understanding -> Knowledge ->
Policy and Action -> Societal benefit
• GLOBEC Synthesis
– Integrated understanding of physical
and biological processes controlling
population dynamics of target organisms
– Evaluate how a varying climate may
influence these populations
– Use knowledge, techniques, and
technologies to improve predictability of
marine system for management purposes
Products from GLOBEC
synthesis
• Path to management:
– Through periodic advice from NMFS
fishery science centers to FMCs
– Through index development and transfer
to FMC decision process
– Through advice to intergovernmental
bodies such as ICES and PICES
GLOBEC Legacy
• Program ends 2010
– Pan-regional synthesis 2008-2010
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Data
Model advances and model products
Advancing ecosystem management
Informing ocean observing systems
Papers, special volumes, books
Cadre of graduate students trained
Influencing scientific programs to follow
Ecological Forecasting
What is needed for
an ecological forecast?
• Understanding of ecosystem composition,
structure, and functioning, and their responses to
stressors
– Process studies
• Knowledge of ecosystem conditions – past,
present, scale of variability
– Monitoring, indicators
– Information science
• Forecasting and interpretation tools
– Modeling and visualization
– Translation and operationalization
How do we approach
forecasting?
• Fill gaps in scientific uncertainty
• Integrate disciplines
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Natural sciences
Social sciences
Economics
Information sciences
Modeling
• Quantify forecast uncertainty
• Foster innovation in all disciplines
Who will use an
ecological forecast?
• “Forecasts based solely on on scientific
objectives have little influence on policy
because there is no stakeholder” (Clark et al.,
2001)
• Communication between scientists and managers
– Identify management needs, appropriate
forecast formats
– Direct and focus research questions
• Education of management community
– Utility and uncertainty of forecasts
• Education of research community
– Types of information useful