Transcript 9 Feb/Julian Hunt-Aviation and the urban environment

Aviation and the urban
environment
Julian Hunt
University College London
+Univs of Cambridge, Delft , Arizona State
Cerc .co.uk
(Former Director general UK Met Office)
Aviation and meteorology
• Progress leading to benefits to operations, business,
society resulting from :
• Improved forecasts, including ensembles and
probabilities
• Widely distributed real time data (eg sferics; data for
passengers/airports)
• Increased/improved use of new products (eg medium
range, seasonal(?), environmental forecasts)
•
TRENDS are positive
Aviation and environment
• 3 way interaction with society
• Aviation <----- environment
\ society /
• Local /Global :
aviation -> env. impacts
society -> restrictions-> solutions?
Trends for the future ?Compare with other
Env impacts –transport’n; buildings
Urban Pollution
Phoenix
Los Angeles
Salt Lake City
Hong Kong
(from Asia Weekly)
Aviation and urban environments
• Impacts on society; local/regional pollution;
noise; use of open/living space.
• Urban/local environment impacts on aviation;
complex winds , visibility; particles
+ future trends –expanding cities; climate
change.
• Solutions –restrictions,new locations of airports ;
technology (fuels, engines,airframes );
urban warnings
Environmental science <society
• Local ;air pollution emissions on ground and in
bl. –adds/interacts with other sources
transportation, buildings
• improved monitoring;modelling/fcstg
impact assessment,consultation,regulation?
• Global ; green house gas emissions/impacts on
atmosphere ->>intnl regulation (IPCC)->conseq
for aviation
Features of ADMS-Airport
• An extension of ADMS-Urban – Gaussian type
model nested in regional trajectory model
• Includes chemical reaction scheme, meteorological
preprocessor, Monin-Obukhov and mixed layer
scaling for boundary layer structure
• Allowance for up to 6500 sources: road (1500, each
with up to 50 vertices), point, line area and volume
(1500), grid sources (3000) and up to 500 runway
sources (exhaust modelled as moving jets)
• Other airport features
– Hour by hour time varying data
– Multi-segment line sources e.g. taxi ways
– GIS link displays line, volume and runway
sources
Features: MODELLING EXHAUSTS AS
MOVING JETS & THE IMPACT OF WAKE VORTICES
• Models engine exhausts as moving jet sources
• As the aircraft accelerates
– buoyancy and emissions increasingly spread
along the runway
– the exhaust jet sees a faster ambient wind speed,
this affects the plume rise
• The plume from the faster aircraft rises less than
that from a slower aircraft
• Allows for the impact wake vortices may have on jet
plume rise
Heathrow: METEOROLOGICAL DATA
340°
0°
350°
10°
600
330°
320°
20°
30°
40°
500
310°
50°
400
300°
60°
300
290°
70°
200
280°
80°
100
270°
90°
260°
100°
250°
110°
240°
120°
230°
130°
220°
140°
210°
150°
200°
0
190°
3
180° 170°
6
10 16
160°
(knots)
Wind speed
0
1.5
3.1
5.1
8.2
(m/s)
Background concentrations
(a) NOx, NO2 and Ozone
(b) PM10
%
%
W icken
F en
W icken
F en
330°
to
60°
%
Har well
220°
to
330°
%
135°
to
220°
60°
to
135°
Lullington
Heath
%
%
%
Roc hes ter
Har well
184° to 4° %
4° to 184°
Lullington
Heath
%
%
Roc hes ter
LHR2 diurnal variation ADMS-Airport (solid
line) compared with measured data (dotted
line),Departure
different
runway use No departure on 27 R
on 27 R
No Departure 27R (all wind speeds)
Departure 27R (all wind speeds)
200
200
175
175
150
150
125
125
100
100
75
75
50
50
Measured
ADMS
Measured
ADMS
25
25
0
00:00
0
00:00
05:00
10:00
15:00
20:00
Arrival 27R (all wind speeds)
Arrival on 27R
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
Measured
ADMS
25
0
00:00
05:00
10:00
15:00
20:00
05:00
10:00
15:00
20:00
Courtesy of NRL and KEMA
Courtesy of NRL and KEMA
Local –Regional meteo for aviation
• Local -> wakes of structures near airports;
urban bls day (1-2000m)-night (2layer
form200/1000m- egLondon; New York)
• Regional-> conv/divergence over/down
wind of large urban areas (->
800km);effects on extreme winds;seasonal
effects on precip.pollution ; birds?etc
• -> factors for future planning.
1. Regimes
CASSOU & GULYARDI 2007
Aviation and related environmental
technologies
• Reduced emissions of pollutants
via: Cleaner combustion, engine/aerodyn
efficiency + new carbon neutral fuels
; on ground via renewable power ( Solar power to
aircraft)
• Reduced noise from new aero designs (2020?)
–BUT LARGE INCREASE IN FLIGHTS
Compare with large net reductions in surface
emissions (transport/buildings)
London-Heathrow
relative trends
NO x emis s ions for Heathrow airport (t/yr)
2010
Air T raffic Movements (not 486,000
emis s ions )
2015
2020
2030
486,000
702,000
702,000
Aircraft L T O
5284
5873
7404
6444
Aircraft - other
406
330
323
298
Airport – non-aircraft
360
317
324
305
R oad traffic – Heathrow
area
R oad traffic – L ondon
1921
1474
789
665
31982
25115
13338
11136
O ther - L ondon
29852
29083
29876
30827
Asian city relative trends
Airport: 221,664 aircraft movements per year
Industry
Road Transport
Shipping
Airport
Other
Total
NOx emissions (tonnes
/year)
48,621
30,632
45,655
4,208
2,081
131,197
PM10 emissions (tonnes
/ year)
2,310
2,423
5,430
74
256
10,494
Aircraft developments-trade-off
emissions vs noise
Conclusions
Key factors affecting aviation –environment
interactions near airports /urban areas:
• Emissions including primary NO2 >technology/controls
+Background concentrations(regional policy) e.g. O3
+Aircraft exhausts/designs /flight planning /
-->minimise near field pollution and noise .
,_
• -relate to global impacts of aviation ,(climate change )
and other environmental impacts -. Also need
regulating, and integrated policies.
• Future possibilities ;technology, fuels, designs
Surface efficiencies -> lower impact airports
• Or very low impact airports outside cities