Transcript Aviation Statistics (Avstats)

8th BITRE Transport Colloquium
Australian Transport – building
capacity and competitiveness
Session 8: Climate change and Australia's
international transport links—aviation and
maritime challenges
David Cosgrove
18-19 June 2008
Parliament House
Canberra
Steadily increasing passenger and freight tasks
Steadily increasing transport energy use
50
500
Total Australian passenger task
450
45
40
350
35
300
30
250
25
200
20
150
15
100
10
50
5
0
0
1971
1977
1983
1989
1995
2001
billion litres fuel consumed
billion pass-km travelled
National liquid fuel sales
400
2007
Sources: BITRE estimates – for domestic transport,
ABARE fuel consumption data – for domestic sales.
Total Australian Passenger Task, 1945 - 2007
600
Domestic marine
500
billion passenger-km
Domestic aviation
400
Rail
Other road
300
Bus
200
Car
100
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
Total Australian Passenger Task, 1945 - 2007
600
International Aviation
(to and from Australia)
500
International marine
billion passenger-km
Domestic marine
400
Domestic aviation
Rail
300
Other road
Bus
200
Car
100
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
Total Australian Passenger Task, 1945 - 2007
600
International Aviation
(to and from Australia)
500
International marine
billion passenger-km
Domestic marine
400
Domestic aviation
Rail
300
Other road
Bus
200
Car
100
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
Total Australian Freight Task, 1945 - 2007
700
Domestic aviation
600
Domestic shipping
billion tonne-km
500
Rail
400
300
Road
200
100
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
Total Australian Freight Task, 1945 - 2007
700
International shipping
(into and out of Australia)
600
billion tonne-km
500
International aviation
Domestic aviation
Domestic shipping
400
300
Rail
Road
200
100
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
Total Australian Freight Task, 1945 - 2007
700
International shipping
(into and out of Australia)
600
billion tonne-km
500
International aviation
Domestic aviation
Domestic shipping
400
300
Including here, for demonstration
purposes, both total exports and imports
for Australian trade. Even though this
would result in double-counting, if totalled
across different nations, there is not yet
any agreed framework for consistently
allocating portions of aggregate
international tasks to particular countries.
Rail
Road
200
100
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
Total Australian Freight Task, 1945 - 2007
7000
International shipping
(into and out of Australia)
6000
billion tonne-km
5000
International aviation
Domestic aviation
Domestic shipping
4000
3000
Rail
Road
Note that if only Australian
imports were included here,
the international tonne-km
values would be much lower
(by about a factor of 8 for
current task levels).
2000
1000
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
International transport, CO2 emission projections
4000
3500
Global (smoothed)
expected trends
International shipping
International aviation
million tonnes of CO2 emissions
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Sources: BITRE estimates based on ICAO, IMO and IEA data
Total Australian Passenger Task Projections
1200
1000
International Aviation
(to and from Australia)
International marine
billion passenger-km
Domestic marine
800
Domestic aviation
Rail
600
Other road
Bus
400
Car
200
Base case
projections
0
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
Total Australian Freight Task Projections
16000
Base case
projections
14000
International shipping
(into and out of Australia)
12000
billion tonne-km
International aviation)
10000
8000
6000
Domestic aviation
Domestic shipping
Rail
Road
4000
2000
0
1945 1950
1955 1960
1965 1970 1975
1980 1985
1990 1995
2000 2005 2010
2015 2020
2025 2030
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
Total Energy End-use by Australian Transport
2500
1500
Hydrogen
Electricity
Coal
Fuel oil
Aviation
turbine fuel
Aviation
gasoline
1000
Bio-fuels
Natural Gas
500
LPG
Diesel
30
Petrol
20
25
20
20
20
15
20
10
20
05
20
00
20
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
75
19
70
19
65
19
60
19
55
19
50
19
45
0
19
PJ energy end-use
Base case
projections
Allows for international
aviation and shipping
to and from Australia
(allocating half of their total
fuel use; as an example of
one method for avoiding
double-counting of global
emissions, when totalling
across different countries).
2000
Derived
liquids
Sources: ABARE (2008, website data release), Apelbaum (2007),
Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (2008, fuel sales data),
BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates.
Total Greenhouse Contribution of Australian Transport
250000
Emissions for international
transport, to and from Australia,
are estimated using half of total
fuel use.
International shipping
Gg (total CO2 equivalent emissions)
200000
Base case
projections
International aviation
Domestic marine
150000
Domestic aviation
Rail
100000
Road
50000
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Note: total warming effects - includes both directly
radiative gases and indirectly radiative gases.
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
250000
Base Case
projections
Combustion N2O
Gg (total CO2 equivalent emissions)
200000
150000
Combustion CH4
100000
50000
Combustion CO2
(in-vehicle)
0
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: BITRE (2008)
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
250000
Base Case
projections
Indirect gases
(primarily ozone
precursors) - including
high altitude effects of
aviation emissions
Gg (total CO2 equivalent emissions)
200000
Combustion N2O
150000
100000
‘Global Warming Potential’
values for short-lived gases
only approximate
Combustion CH4
50000
Combustion CO2
(in-vehicle)
0
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: BITRE (2008)
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
250000
Upstream emissions
(primarily CO2 from
petrol refining and
electricity generation)
Base Case
projections
Gg (total CO2 equivalent emissions)
200000
150000
100000
Indirect gases
(primarily ozone
precursors) - including
high altitude effects of
aviation emissions
Re-allocating emissions from the
‘Energy transformation’ sector of
the National Greenhouse Gas
Inventory
Combustion N2O
GWP values
for short-lived
gases only
approximate
Combustion CH4
50000
Combustion CO2
(in-vehicle)
0
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: BITRE (2008)
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
250000
Fugitive emissions of
halocarbons (esp. from
motor vehicle airconditioners)
Base Case
projections
Upstream emissions
(primarily CO2 from
petrol refining and
electricity generation)
Gg (total CO2 equivalent emissions)
200000
Re-attributing emissions from the
‘Industrial Processes’ sector of the
National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
150000
100000
Indirect gases
(primarily ozone
precursors) - including
high altitude effects of
aviation emissions
Re-allocating emissions from
‘Energy transformation’
GWP values
for short-lived
gases only
approximate
Combustion N2O
Combustion CH4
50000
Combustion CO2
(in-vehicle)
0
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: BITRE (2008)
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
Possible extra due to
black carbon
emissions (allowing
roughly for net aerosol
effects)
250000
Base Case
projections
Known to have an effect –
but not yet fully quantified
Fugitive emissions of
halocarbons (esp. from
motor vehicle airconditioners)
Gg (total CO2 equivalent emissions)
200000
Re-attributing emissions from the
‘Industrial Processes’ sector of the
National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
150000
100000
Upstream emissions
(primarily CO2 from
petrol refining and
electricity generation)
Re-allocating emissions from
‘Energy transformation’
Indirect gases
(primarily ozone
precursors) - including
high altitude effects of
aviation emissions
GWP values
for short-lived
gases only
approximate
Combustion N2O
50000
Combustion CH4
0
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Combustion CO2
(in-vehicle)
Source: BITRE (2008)
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
250000
Base Case
projections
International
civil
transport to
and from
Australia
(using a
rough
allocation of
half total fuel
use)
currently
adds around
28% to the
total for
domestic
civil
transport
Gg (total CO2 equivalent emissions)
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: BITRE (2008)
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
250000
International transport non-CO2
Base Case
projections
International transport CO2
Gg (total CO2 equivalent emissions)
200000
Domestic transport non-CO2
Domestic transport CO2
150000
100000
50000
0
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
It is
important to
consider all
sources and
all gases
when
estimating
total
warming
effects –
especially
for aviation,
due to
high-altitude
effects for
some
non-CO2
emissions
Source: BITRE (2008)
References and further reading, from the BITRE website:
 BTRE (2002), Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Transport: Australian Trends To 2020,
Report 107
http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/93/Files/r107.pdf
 BTRE (2006), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case
Projections To 2020, Report to AGO
http://www.bitre.gov.au/info.aspx?NodeId=16
 BTCE (1996), Transport and Greenhouse: Costs and options for reducing emissions,
Report 94
 Cosgrove, D. C. (2003), Urban Pollutant Emissions from Motor Vehicles: Australian Trends
to 2020, Final Draft Report for Environment Australia, BTRE 2003
http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/36/Files/ea_btre.pdf
 BITRE (2008, forthcoming Working Paper), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian
Transport – 2007: Projections to 2020
http://www.bitre.gov.au/
David Cosgrove
Climate change and Australia's international transport
www.transportcolloquium.com.au