Transcript Slide 1

October 22, 2009
NESCAUM Low Carbon Fuel Standards Stakeholder Meeting
Transportation Fuels Panel
Boston, Massachusetts
Watson Collins
Manager, Business Development
Enterprise Planning & Development
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What are the technical and economic prospects for
electric transportation?
Conventional Vehicle *
15 - 20%
Electric Vehicle**
Pump / Plug to
Wheels Efficiency
(approx.)
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›
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Diverse supply portfolio today
Primarily natural gas in New England
Can be almost any renewable resource
RGGI and RPS policies will continue to drive a
cleaner generation fleet in New England
Oil, Biofuels, etc..
Energy Supply
Resource
7 metric tons / year
Carbon Profile
$4.80 for 40 miles
Energy Cost
$1.60 for 40 miles
27.5 MPG CAFE Standard
MPG Rating
150 – 250 MPG
* 25 MPG vehicle & 15,000 miles per year
** Chevy Volt driven electrically & 15,00 miles per year
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70 - 80%
1.5 metric tons / year
What is the timeframe for electric vehicles?
Vehicle availability and consumer acceptance are
key to recognizing environmental benefits
Market Penetration Projections
80%
75%
70%
EPRI/NRDC Study - High Penetration
EPRI/NRDC Study - Low Penetration
65%
Projection Rate Similar to Hybrid Vehicles
60%
Penetration of Fleet
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2010
2015
2020
Year
3
2025
2030
Expected Vehicle Introductions
>
Tesla Roadster (Today)
>
Chevy Volt (2010)
>
Nissan Leaf (2010)
>
GM PHEV SUV (2010/11)
>
Ford Transit Connect
(2010/11)
>
Ford Project M (2011)
>
Toyota Prius PHEV (2010)
>
Chrysler platform (2011)
>
Mitsubishi iMiEV (2011/12)
>
Tesla Model S (2012)
>
Fisker Karma (2012)
>
Volvo (2012)
>
Audi e-tron (2012)
>
VW E-up (2013)
Key factors impacting consumer adoption of EVs
Macro Drivers
Charging
Infrastructure
Business
Environment
• Government legislation, programs and regulations
• Industry consensus and innovation
• Business case financials (ROE, risk, capital
requirements, etc..)
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• Gasoline prices
• Battery costs
• Societal priorities (Oil dependency,
climate change, jobs, etc..)
Consumer
Adoption of EVs
Will drive
automaker
rollout
plans
• Customer demographics
• Government financial &
nonfinancial incentives
• Charging stations & processes
• Vehicle availability
• Economics of EVs
• EV features and benefits
Utility business questions with electric vehicles
How should we pay for public charging infrastructure?
› Contribution from increased kWh sales is insufficient to fully offset annual carrying costs.
› Who should pay? Possible ingredients include; electric customers, surcharge on EV
owners, specific electric customers (voluntary or mandated), or funded by transportation
sector.
How should we handle the cross sector cost shift (transportation to utility sector)?
› EVs result in a net reduction in carbon emissions but increase compliance costs in the
utility sector (RPS and RGGI)
› Is this a concern? What mechanisms can be put in place to compensate electric
customers? Who is best able to manage this issue?
Additional utility infrastructure will be necessary with high penetration levels of EVs
› While the grid can generally handle EV adoption rates expected in the next 5 – 10 years,
longer term investment will be necessary to support significant levels of EV adoption.
› Localized distribution impacts (service transformers and wires) may need to be upgraded
to support clustering of EVs.
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Policy Questions
Clarity & Balance on Policy Objectives
> Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
> Energy security
> Support for local renewable development
> Economic efficiency of outcomes and
innovation
Who will own the credits generated by EVs?
> Vehicle owner
> Automakers
> Electric generators
> T&D utility companies
> Charging infrastructure providers
Policy Options
> Cap & trade
> Carbon tax
> Fuel tax
> Low Carbon Fuel Standard
> Fee-bates
> Gas guzzler taxes
> Fuel mandates
> Efficiency mandates
> Additional measures ….
Calculation of EV Credits
> Geography (Region wide vs ISO specific)
> Methodology (Marginal, average, time specific)
> Vehicles (vehicle specific, categories, blended
average)
Miles Traveled x MPG x Carbon Intensity => Carbon Emissions
Focus of LCFS
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