Transcript Lysbilde 1
Electric vehicles in Norway and in the Oslo region Erik Figenbaum 13.05.2013 1993/94 • Nationwide – About 65 EVs – 10 charging stations – Tens of EVs sold • Oslo region – 40 EVs – 10 charging stations 2013 • Nationwide 1.quarter – About 12000 vehicles – 4000 charging stations, – 127 fast charge stations – 4000 EVs sold 2012 • Oslo region – 5000 EVs – 1750 charging stations, – 45 fast charging stations So how did this come about? [email protected] 13.05.2013 Up to 2000 – preparation and imports • Vehicle registration tax exemption from 1991/1995 • Free parking introduced 1999 • Some imports of Kewets from Denmark and eventually a factory with all tools and IP rights • Think in development phase, bankruptsy, rebirth and new life as a Ford US subsidiary • Stavanger gaining traction, linking to Peugeot getting a deal on deliveries of EVs to Stavanger area, lobbying to get EVS24 to Stavanger in 2009 • In 2000: only 383 EVs in national fleet [email protected] 13.05.2013 From 2000 a bumpy ride but gaining traction Second hand imports of french EVs French EVs 1. gen sold by norwegian importeurs Ford launches Thinks first model VAT exemption decided VAT exemption introduced Ford pulls out of Think Kewet Buddy launched by ElbilNorge Think bankrupt Access to buslanes in test area Reduced annual tax [email protected] 13.05.2013 Pure mobility bankrupt Think Think production bankrupt moved to New Nissan Leaf Finland Buddy launch launched First fast by Pure chargers mobility Mitsubishi I- REVA EV launched Think launches new model Miev launch Transnovas charging station program Permanent access to bus lanes, minibus no longer allowed, Free ferries EVS 24 in Stavanger 1500 del. Source: OFV/Grønn bil Sales 2011-2013 Mitsubishi delivering backlog of pre-orders Nissan Leaf launch Mitsubishi, Citroen, Peugeot price reductions Nissan expanding nationwide [email protected] 13.05.2013 Source OFV Modelsplit sales 2011-2012 [email protected] 13.05.2013 Source: OFV Development of national EV fleet Base of around 3000 devoted EV drivers when A survey of the big EV owners in automakers 2006 launched showed that cars in 2010 they identify themselves as EV drivers [email protected] 13.05.2013 1. gen up to 2009 • Small independent producers, uncertainty • No warranty • No safety rating • Think 290000 NOK • Few dealers 2.gen from 2010 • Established automakers and importers • 5 year/100000 km warr. • 4/5 star EuroNcap rating • Mitsubishi price 240000 NOK • Mitsubishi 04/13 182000 NOK • Nissan Leaf 07/13 220000 NOK • Buyers traded comfort and safety for access to buslanes and free tolls [email protected] 13.05.2013 Geographical spread of EVs [email protected] 13.05.2013 Source: Grønn bil/OFV EVs in norwegian media 4500 el-bil… 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Media focus started 2-3 years before carmanufacturers launched cars 1000 500 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 [email protected] 13.05.2013 Source: Retriever Access to parking at the household Private households No cars 1 car Total 2 or more cars The household have a garage or carport 201 943 577 931 358 600 1 138 474 30 % 18 % 58 % The household does not have a garage or carport, but have a reserved parking place 170 815 224 826 12 % 8813 5% 483 771 25 % The household have no parking facilitites 209 809 105 840 23654 339 303 17 % Total 582 567 30% 908 597 470 384 1 961 548 46 % 24 % 2 or more cars and parking facilities at home: 23% 1 or more cars and parking facilities at home: 65% Households with parking facilities at home: 83% [email protected] 13.05.2013 Source: SSB 2001 Likely more multicar households today EVs - a rational choice • • • • • • Price on par or cheaper than gasoline car Low user costs thanks to high fuel taxes User benefits of great value if you use them Many multicar households with garage/carport Positive image Good cars have arrived in the showrooms A very competitive free market. [email protected] 13.05.2013 Marketing creativity [email protected] 13.05.2013 Who are the buyers? • • • • • Belongs to a multi car household Belongs to households with more people Drives as much as other multi car households Younger than buyers of regular cars More inclined to be well educated and in the work force • The new vehicles bought from 2012 are used as much as comparable gasoline cars (2013 NTNU survey) • Earlier EVs had lower annual mileage (ECON 2006 survey) • A few buy it as their single car and they have reduced annual mileage compared to other single car housholds [email protected] 13.05.2013 For which trips are the vehicles used? Source: Klöckner et al, NTNU [email protected] 13.05.2013 The power of incentives… • Bus lane access switch from minibus to EVs in test areas had immediate effect on sales: [email protected] 13.05.2013 Source: Vista Analyse AS 2011 Ranking of incentives 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. VAT exemption – cuts vehicle price 25% Access to bus lanes – Vaining importance as vehicle sales spread to regions with few bus-lanes Toll road exemption Reduced annual tax Free parking Expansion of charging stations Runner up: Reduced company car benefit tax Early days: Exemption from tax on vehicle registration [email protected] 13.05.2013 How did EVs get all these incentives? • 1990s: Removing disincentives to get testing going, local initiatives on free parking, toll road exemption created bottom-up push on government, energy industry involv. • 2000s: The dream of an EV industry, needed a strong homemarket to thrive • 2010s: Climate policy, increasingly important part of transportation sector efforts, NGOs, car importers push • Always one more incentive needed, • New pressure groups joined the party along the way [email protected] 13.05.2013 But most important of all… • It is much easier to NOT collect a tax than to collect taxes and then HAND OUT a subsidy • Electric cars was a managable fleet size for access to bus lanes at the time it was decided [email protected] 13.05.2013 The unfortunate cousin • • • • Plug-in hybrids have few incentives They come well out of the registration tax VAT makes the cars extra expensive No local benefits • Very slow sales, (about 500 in fleet) • but needed to reach national goals [email protected] 13.05.2013 National targets – Passenger cars [email protected] 13.05.2013 Safety - fires • Fires related to illegal modifications [email protected] 13.05.2013 Sources: www.vg.no; www.rb.no Safety - accidents Source www.budstikka.no Source www.bt.no [email protected] 13.05.2013 Learning points • • • • • • • EVs a rational choice for consumers Most buyers are private citizens EVs bought as secondary vehicles, being used as primary Buyers use the cars a lot and are more car-use inclined – EVs winter range - worst case half of official Cold temperature slows fast charging to half speed Owners illegally upgrade/modify old cars • Lot of knowledge and EV-entusiasm built-up in the slow market growth up to 2010, ready for the good EVs [email protected] 13.05.2013 Outlook • Economic incentives freezed through 2017 • User benefits may change in cooperation with local authoritites • Many new models arriving – Waiting list for Tesla Sedan S – Volkswagen, Norways biggest brand, launching cars 2013 and 2014 – BMW, Ford and others coming up [email protected] 13.05.2013