Transcript Slide 1

Electricity in Thailand:
current arrangements, impacts,
alternatives
27 June, 2007
ERI
Chom Greacen
Chris Greacen
www.palangthai.org
Will our electricity
future look like
this?
…or this?
… or this?
Natural gas
• Used to make 71% of
Thailand’s electricity
(among highest in world)
• Cleaner than other fossil
fuels (especially SOx) but
still big CO2 emissions
• Limited domestic supply.
• Human rights issues in
pipeline from Burma
(Yadana)
LNG
terminal
Natural gas
• Severe price volatility – linked to crude oil price.
• Now around $0.05 to $0.07 / kWh
Coal
• Used to make 14% of Thailand’s
electricity
• History of respiratory illnesses
from coal smoke – Mae Mot,
Lampang
• Acid rain
• Worst fuel for global warming
• Limited domestic supply
• Cheaper (now) than natural gas
($0.04 to $0.06/kWh)
• Strong environmental opposition
Big hydro
• Used to make 6% of Thailand’s
electricity
• Consensus: no more big dams will
be built in Thailand
– Limited sites left in Thailand
– Strong environmental opposition
• Environmental issues
–
–
–
–
Inundation
Fish killed
Global warming
Changes in temperature / sediment
loading / flow regime
• Can be cheap
– If reasonably close to load centers
Thailand seen from altitude of 450
kilometers
Khao Laem
dam reservoir
Sri Nakharin dam
reservoir
Burma
Thailand seen from 54 kilometers
Sri Nakharin dam
reservoir
Khao Laem dam resettlement
• "We had to spend all of our compensation for
living, and it wasn't enough, actually. The
condition of the land here and my previous land
is very different...I miss the fertile resources. Our
ancestors did rice farming for ages. But now I
cannot grow rice and have to buy it, which is
also very expensive ... If I could ask the officials
for one thing, I would like to ask, 'Please can I
return to where I was?'"
– Panya Kwanprasertwaree, a Karen elder who was
forced to move because of the dam
Nuclear
• In 2007 PDP starting year
2020
• Cost uncertain
– $0.02 to $0.12/kWh
• Environment & security
issues
– Generates materials that can
be used to make weapons
– Thailand has spotty nuclear
safety record already
– Waste dangerous for 250,000
years.
Thai Electricity demand is projected to grow
45000
40000
35000
Jan 04 (MEG)
25000
ACTUAL
20000
15000
10000
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
5000
1992
MW Peak Demand
30000
What should be done to make sure
that there is enough electricity?
Industry response…
• Natural gas interests say:
– “Use more gas!”
– “It’s clean(er).”
• Coal interests say:
– “Use more coal” for fuel diversity
– “Clean” coal
– “It’s cheaper”
• Hydropower interests say:
–
–
–
–
“New dams in Lao and Burma!”
Asian Development Bank GMS grid
“Big hydro for poverty reduction!”
“It’s cheap”
• Nuclear advocates say:
– It’s cheap! (contested)
– No green house gases!
What should be done to make sure
that there is enough electricity?
ADB/World Bank response…
ADB’s Indicative
Master Plan on
Power
Interconnect-ion
in the GMS
Civil society response…
1. Fix governance problems
•
•
•
Transparency, accountability, public participation
Remove conflict of interest
Set up empowered, competent regulatory authority
2. More realistic demand projections
3. Consider a full range of alternatives in power
development plan including:
•
•
•
Energy savings
Renewable energy
Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
Fix governance problems:
Transparency, accountability, public
participation
Fix governance problems: Remove
conflict of interest
• Example:
transmission
shouldn’t be
controlled by the
same business
that owns
generation.
Fix governance problems:
regulatory authority
• Independent
– Able to think for itself
• Competent in working for public interest
– Public wants reliable, affordable energy without
environmental impacts
• Empowered
– Has authority to enforce the rules
13 out of 14 official base case forecasts
predicted demand that failed to materialize
50,000
Jun-93
45,000
Dec-94
Oct-95
40,000
Apr-96 (High)
Oct 96 (Base)
35,000
MW peak demand
Jun 97 (Low)
Sep 97 (Very Low)
30,000
Sep 98 (RER)
Sep 98 (MER)
25,000
Sep 98 (LER)
Feb-01
20,000
NGO-01
Aug-06
15,000
Jan 04 (MEG)
Apr 06 Base
10,000
Jan-07
NGO-04
5,000
ACTUAL
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Demand growth has been close to
linear over the past 20 years…
Peak demand (MW)
30000
y = 844.21x - 2E+06
R2 = 0.989
20000
10000
0
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
Historic peak demand
1997
1999
2001
2003
Linear (Historic peak demand)
2005
2007
… but “official forecasts” assume
exponential growth
50000
24 power plants
45000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
2007 Forecast
Historic peak demand trend
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
0
1985
Peak demand (MW)
40000
Power Development Plan
(Planned installed capacity = peak demand + 15% reserve)
Fuel mix in power generation
GWh
Import
Nuke
RE
Gas
Coal
Lignite
Hydro
Options that need to be included
Options that need to be included
• Saving energy
Options that need to be included
• Saving energy
• Renewable energy
Options that need to be included
• Saving energy
• Renewable energy
• Combined heat and power (CHP)
Centralized utility
(EGAT)
Central Generation
Decentralized utility
(A better way)
Central Generation
Wind
Remote
Loads
Genset
Fuel Cell
Customers
Customer
Efficiency
Battery
PV
30
Cost of Energy (US cents/kWH)
Saving electricity is cheaper than
generating it…
10.0
8.0
Demand Side Management (saving electricity)
6.0
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
Lowsulphur
coal w/o
FGD
Lowsulphur fuel
oil w/o
FGD
LNG
8.2
5.5
4.0
4.0
2.1
2.6
2.0
DSM
Hydro from
Gas
Lignite with
Laos
combined
FGD
cycle
Type of Power Plant
Source: The World Bank (1993)
Lowsulphur
coal with
FGD
Nuclear
Saving Energy : big potential in
Thailand
• 2000 to 3000 MW:
“Achievable and cost
effective Demand Side
Management (DSM)” in
1991 (Utility study)
Saving energy in the house: Using overhangs, trees
to keep house cool
South
ทีม่ า : Australian Greenhouse Office (2003)
Saving Energy in a typical pumping
system
Source: Presentation by Ministry of Energy at Energy Strategy Workshop chaired by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. 28 August 2003
Rice husk fired power plant
• 9.8 MW
• Roi Et province
• Subsidy 0.3 baht/kWh
Korat Waste to Energy - biogas
• Uses waste water from cassava to make
methane
• Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW
thermal) + 3 MW of electricity
• 3 x 1 MW gas generators
• Subsidy 0.3 baht/kWh
Reduces air and water pollution
Biogas from
Pig Farms
Produces fertilizer
Produces electricity
8 x 70 kW generator
Ratchaburi
Subsidy: 0.3 baht/kwh
Community micro-hydro
• Mae Kam Pong village,
Chiang Mai
• 1x40 kW; 2x20 kW
• Community cooperative
• Subsidy 0.4 to 0.8
baht/kWh
Wind energy
• Power Potential
“1,600 MW”
• Wind speeds still not
well characterized
• Projects in planning
phase 5 to 30 MW in
southern gulf
provinces
• Subsidy 2.5
baht/kWh
Grid-Connected Solar Electricity
•Subsidy 8 baht/kWh
•68 projects on-line generating >1 MW
•Several big projects planned > 7 MW additional
8 kW gridconnected
Honda
Automobile
Co., Bangkok
Tesco Lotus
460 kW gridconnected
PV Rama I,
Bangkok
Off-grid handouts
• 230,000 solar home systems
• >900 solar battery charging stations
• >60 community micro-hydropower
systems
FORTH
ส ภ า ว ะ ก า ร ทา ง า น
แ ผ ง พ ลั ง ง า น แ ส ง อ า ทิ ต ย์
SOLAR PRODUCT
ป ร ะ จุ แ บ ต เ ต อ รี่
โ ห ล ด / เ กิ น พิ กั ด โ ห ล ด
เ ต็ ม
ปานก ลาง
ต่า
SH-1210M
ส ภ า ว ะ แ บ ต เ ต อ รี่
เ ค รื่ อ ง ค ว บ คุ ม ก า ร ป ร ะ จุ แ บ ต เ ต อ รี่ แ ล ะ แ ป ล ง ก ร ะ แ ส ไ ฟ ฟ้ า
สา ห รั บ ร ะ บ บ พ ลั ง ง า น แ ส ง อ า ทิ ต ย์
แ บ ต เ ต อ รี่
แ ผ ง รั บ พ ลั ง ง า น
แ ส ง อ า ทิ ต ย์
ไ ฟ ฟ้ า ก ระแ ส ส ลั บ
220 โ ว ล ต์ 50 เ ฮิ รต ซ์
L
เ ปิ ด / ปิ ด
ส า ย ดิ น
N
ป ลั๊ ก ไ ฟ ฟ้ า ก ร ะ แ ส ส ลั บ
220 โ ว ล ต์ 50 เ ฮิ รต ซ์
HaCo
HaCo
10A
ON
3K
D EEP CY CLE
EBB 125
3K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
~
Renewable energy accounts for very little of
Thailands’ total electricity production
Source: (EPPO) 2007
Combined Heat
and Power
(CHP)… also
called
“cogeneration”
CHP potential in Thailand
–8610 MW cogen installed as of
2001
–At least 3,000 MW of additional
cogen had applied and have not
been accepted.
Summary of alternatives
•
•
•
•
Energy saving 2000 to 3000 MW
Renewables > 3000 MW
Cogeneration > 3000 MW
Total peak load in Thailand (2007): around
22,600 MW
Civil society response…
1. Fix governance problems
•
•
•
Transparency, accountability, public participation
Remove conflict of interest
Set up empowered, competent regulatory authority
2. More realistic demand projections
3. Consider a full range of alternatives in power
development plan including:
•
•
•
Energy savings
Renewable energy
Combined Heat and Power
Let’s work together…
•
•
•
Are you interested in looking at clean
energy options in your country?
Are you motivated, self-reliant, willing to
ask tough questions?
Mekong Energy and Climate Network
(MECN) forming 2008…
Your comments and questions are
welcome!
Palang Thai
Tel. 02-672-0364
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
www.palangthai.org
Cost of renewable energy is
sometimes higher than conventional
Production cost (baht/kWh)
10
9
8
7
6
5
9.07
4
3
2
1
0
3.98
1.36
1.45
ก๊าซ
ถ่านหิน
gas
coal
2.02
น้ ามันเตา
1.57
1.76
ชวี มวล
พลังน้ า (เล็ก)
biomass
0.5
Small
hydro
แสงอาทิตย์
solar
พลังลม
wind
DSM
Energy
efficiency