Transcript Slide 1

Electricity in Thailand:
current arrangements, impacts,
alternatives
2 August, 2006
ERI
Chris Greacen
www.palangthai.org
Will our electricity
future look like
this?
…or this?
… or this?
Natural gas
• Used to make 71% of
Thailand’s electricity
(among highest in world)
• Cleaner than other fossil
fuels (especially SOx) but
still big CO2 emissions
• Limited domestic supply.
• Human rights issues in
pipeline from Burma
(Yadana)
LNG
terminal
Natural gas
• Severe price volatility – linked to crude oil price.
• Now around $0.05 to $0.07 / kWh
Coal
• Used to make 14% of Thailand’s
electricity
• History of respiratory illnesses
from coal smoke – Mae Mot,
Lampang
• Acid rain
• Worst fuel for global warming
• Limited domestic supply
• Cheaper (now) than natural gas
($0.04 to $0.06/kWh)
• Strong environmental opposition
Big hydro
• Used to make 6% of Thailand’s
electricity
• Consensus: no more big dams will
be built in Thailand
– Limited sites left in Thailand
– Strong environmental opposition
• Environmental issues
–
–
–
–
Inundation
Fish killed
Global warming
Changes in temperature / sediment
loading / flow regime
• Can be cheap
– If reasonably close to load centers
Thailand seen from altitude of 450
kilometers
Khao Laem
dam reservoir
Sri Nakharin dam
reservoir
Burma
Thailand seen from 54 kilometers
Sri Nakharin dam
reservoir
Khao Laem dam resettlement
• According to a study produced by the World Bank's
Operations Evaluations Department in 1993, 80% of
people evicted by the dam "were...dissatisfied with the
resettlement outcome", considering themselves "to be
worse off than before resettlement".
• "We had to spend all of our compensation for living, and
it wasn't enough, actually. The condition of the land here
and my previous land is very different...I miss the fertile
resources. I could find things for a meal. The thing that I
miss most is rice. Rice is my soul. Our ancestors did rice
farming for ages. But now I cannot grow rice and have to
buy it, which is also very expensive ... If I could ask the
officials for one thing, I would like to ask, 'Please can I
return to where I was?'"
– Panya Kwanprasertwaree, a Karen elder who was forced to
move because of the dam
Nuclear
• Currently not used to make
any of Thailand’s electricity
• Cost uncertain
– $0.02 to $0.12/kWh
• Environment & security
issues
– Generates materials that can
be used to make weapons
– Thailand has spotty nuclear
safety record already
– Waste dangerous for 250,000
years.
Thai Electricity demand is projected to grow
45000
40000
35000
Jan 04 (MEG)
25000
ACTUAL
20000
15000
10000
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
5000
1992
MW Peak Demand
30000
What should be done to make sure
that there is enough electricity?
Industry response…
• Natural gas interests say:
– “Use more gas!”
– “It’s clean(er).”
• Coal interests say:
– “Use more coal” for fuel diversity
– “Clean” coal
– “It’s cheaper”
• Hydropower interests say:
–
–
–
–
“New dams in Lao and Burma!”
Asian Development Bank GMS grid
“Big hydro for poverty reduction!”
“It’s cheap”
• Nuclear advocates say:
– “Nuclear energy is part of the ultimate answer”
What should be done to make sure
that there is enough electricity?
ADB/World Bank response…
ADB’s Indicative
Master Plan on
Power
Interconnect-ion
in the GMS
Civil society response…
1. Fix governance problems
•
•
•
Transparency, accountability, public participation
Remove conflict of interest
Set up empowered, competent regulatory authority
2. More realistic demand projections
3. Consider a full range of alternatives in power
development plan including:
•
•
•
Energy savings
Renewable energy
Combined Heat and Power
Fix governance problems:
Transparency, accountability, public
participation
Fix governance problems: Remove
conflict of interest
• Example:
transmission
shouldn’t be
controlled by the
same business
that owns
generation.
Fix governance problems:
regulatory authority
• Independent
– Able to think for itself
• Competent in working for public interest
– Public wants reliable, affordable energy without
environmental impacts
• Empowered
– Has authority to enforce the rules
Centralized utility
(EGAT)
Central Generation
Decentralized utility
(A better way)
Central Generation
Wind
Remote
Loads
Genset
Fuel Cell
Customers
Customer
Efficiency
Battery
PV
21
More realistic demand projections
Jun-93
45,000
Dec-94
Oct-95
Apr-96 (High)
40,000
Oct 96 (Base)
Jun 97 (Low)
Sep 97 (Very Low)
Sep 98 (RER)
35,000
Sep 98 (MER)
Sep 98 (LER)
(Feb-01)
(Aug-02)
Jan 04 (MEG)
Apr 06 Base
25,000
ACTUAL
Alternative (04)
Jun-93
Dec-94
20,000
Oct-95
Apr-96 (High)
Oct 96 (Base)
15,000
Jun 97 (Low)
•Official Thai Jan 04 forecast
overestimated 2006 peak demand by
1674 MW.
•Lao NT2 = 995 MW
10,000
Sep 97 (Very Low)
Sep 98 (RER)
Sep 98 (MER)
Sep 98 (LER)
(Feb-01)
(Aug-02)
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
5,000
1992
MW Peak Demand
30,000
Jan 04 (MEG)
Apr 06 Base
Power Development Plan
(Planned installed capacity = peak demand + 15% reserve)
Options that need to be included
Options that need to be included
• Saving energy
Options that need to be included
• Saving energy
• Renewable energy
Options that need to be included
• Saving energy
• Renewable energy
• Combined heat and power (CHP)
Centralized utility
(EGAT)
Central Generation
Decentralized utility
(A better way)
Central Generation
Wind
Remote
Loads
Genset
Fuel Cell
Customers
Customer
Efficiency
Battery
PV
28
Cost of Energy (US cents/kWH)
Saving electricity is cheaper than
generating it…
10.0
8.0
Demand Side Management (saving electricity)
6.0
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
Lowsulphur
coal w/o
FGD
Lowsulphur fuel
oil w/o
FGD
LNG
8.2
5.5
4.0
4.0
2.1
2.6
2.0
DSM
Hydro from
Gas
Lignite with
Laos
combined
FGD
cycle
Type of Power Plant
Source: The World Bank (1993)
Lowsulphur
coal with
FGD
Nuclear
Saving Energy : big potential in
Thailand
• 2000 to 3000 MW:
“Achievable and cost
effective Demand Side
Management (DSM)” in
1991 (Utility study)
Saving energy in the house: Using overhangs, trees
to keep house cool
South
ทีม่ า : Australian Greenhouse Office (2003)
Saving Energy in a typical pumping
system
Source: Presentation by Ministry of Energy at Energy Strategy Workshop chaired by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. 28 August 2003
Community
micro-hydro
• Mae Kam Pong village,
Chiang Mai
• 1x40 kW; 2x20 kW
• Community cooperative
40 kW micro-hydro generator at
Mae Kam Pong
Reduces air and water pollution
Biogas from
Pig Farms
Produces fertilizer
Produces electricity
Biogas from Pig
Farms
• 8 x 70 kW generators
Korat Waste to Energy - biogas
• Uses waste water from cassava to make
methane
• Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW
thermal) + 3 MW of electricity
Korat Waste to Energy - biogas
• 3 x 1 MW gas generators
Rice husk fired power plant
• 9.8 MW
• Roi Et province
Wind power
• Hundreds of kW to 5 MW per
turbine
• Now over 15,000 MW in
Germany
• Denmark gets >17%
electricity from wind
• Power costs in Thailand: 4 to
6 baht/kWh
www.windpower.org
Wind Energy Potential Map
Average speed 4.4 - 6.4 m/sec
Power Potential 1,600 MW
10 kW
50 kW
3 kW
400 W
(Not to
scale)
Solar electricity – off-grid
• 25,000
baht per
household
system
• 120 watts
• Electricity
for 2 lights
+ TV
FORTH
ส ภ า ว ะ ก า ร ทา ง า น
แ ผ ง พ ลั ง ง า น แ ส ง อ า ทิ ต ย์
SOLAR PRODUCT
ป ร ะ จุ แ บ ต เ ต อ รี่
โ ห ล ด / เ กิ น พิ กั ด โ ห ล ด
เ ต็ ม
ปานก ลาง
ต่า
SH-1210M
ส ภ า ว ะ แ บ ต เ ต อ รี่
เ ค รื่ อ ง ค ว บ คุ ม ก า ร ป ร ะ จุ แ บ ต เ ต อ รี่ แ ล ะ แ ป ล ง ก ร ะ แ ส ไ ฟ ฟ้ า
สา ห รั บ ร ะ บ บ พ ลั ง ง า น แ ส ง อ า ทิ ต ย์
แ บ ต เ ต อ รี่
แ ผ ง รั บ พ ลั ง ง า น
แ ส ง อ า ทิ ต ย์
ไ ฟ ฟ้ า ก ระแ ส ส ลั บ
220 โ ว ล ต์ 50 เ ฮิ รต ซ์
ส า ย ดิ น
L N
เ ปิ ด / ปิ ด
ป ลั๊ ก ไ ฟ ฟ้ า ก ร ะ แ ส ส ลั บ
220 โ ว ล ต์ 50 เ ฮิ รต ซ์
HaCo
HaCo
10A
ON
3K
D EEP CY CLE
EBB 125
3K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
~
Grid connected solar electricity
• Baht 250 to
350 per watt
• VSPP
program
• Baht 9 to 15
per kWh
(compare to
baht 2.5 per
kWh from
PEA)
shop.altenergystore.com
3 kW grid-connect solar electricity at
EPPO office in Bangkok
Cost of renewable energy is
sometimes higher than conventional
Production cost (baht/kWh)
10
9
8
7
6
5
9.07
4
3
2
1
0
3.98
1.36
1.45
ก๊าซ
ถ่านหิน
gas
coal
2.02
น้ ามันเตา
1.57
1.76
ชวี มวล
พลังน้ า (เล็ก)
biomass
0.5
Small
hydro
แสงอาทิตย์
solar
พลังลม
wind
DSM
Energy
efficiency
Renewable energy accounts for very little of
Thailands’ installed generating capacity
Imported coal
0.6% grid-connected renewables
Big
hydro
lignite
พลังน้ า
ก๊าซธรรมชาติ
Fuel oil
น้ ามันเตา
ดีเซล
Natural gas
ลิกไนต์
ถ่านหินนาเข ้า
พลังงานหมุนเวียน
ื่ มไทย-มาเลเซย
ี
สายสง่ เชอ
TOTAL: 26,000 MW
Source: EGAT (2003). Power Development Plan
Combined Heat
and Power
(CHP)… also
called
“cogeneration”
CHP potential in Thailand
–8610 MW cogen installed as of
2001
–At least 3,000 MW of additional
cogen had applied and have not
been accepted.
Summary of alternatives
•
•
•
•
Energy saving 2000 to 3000 MW
Renewables > 3000 MW
Cogeneration > 3000 MW
Total peak load in Thailand (2006): around
21,064 MW
Civil society response…
1. Fix governance problems
•
•
•
Transparency, accountability, public participation
Remove conflict of interest
Set up empowered, competent regulatory authority
2. More realistic demand projections
3. Consider a full range of alternatives in power
development plan including:
•
•
•
Energy savings
Renewable energy
Combined Heat and Power
Thank you
For more information, please contact
[email protected]