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Renewable Energy for conviviality: some experiences from Thailand Chris Greacen Palang Thai Eco-Village Training 20 December 2007 Mu Ban Dek, Kanchanburi Palang Thai พลังไท พลัง (palang): n 1. Power. 2. Empowerment. ไท (thai): adj. 1. Independence. 2. Self-reliance – We teach hands-on energy technology – We draft policies – We critique wasteful & dangerous megaprojects Conviviality Con: “with” Vivre: “life” Conviviality Con: “with” Vivre: “life” As individuals, as communities, as a species… how can we live in harmony with nature/divine? Conviviality Con: “with” Vivre: “life” As individuals, as communities, as a species… how can we live in harmony with nature/divine? "Nature has enough for our need, but not enough for our greed." -- Ghandi Conviviality Con: “with” Vivre: “life” As individuals, as communities, as a species… how can we live in harmony with nature/divine? "Nature has enough for our need, but not enough for our greed.“ Renewable energy is not enough… we need to address consumption What is Renewable Energy? • Renewable: harnesses energy flows in nature in ways that do not deplete those flows. • Fossil: use it, and it is gone… Global Warming Albedo Effect กรีนแลนด์ บริเวณขัว้ โลกเหนื อ Ice melting areas Source of picture: bbc.co.uk Natural gas • Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world) • Cleaner than other fossil fuels (especially SOx) but still big CO2 emissions • Limited domestic supply. • Human rights issues in pipeline from Burma (Yadana) LNG terminal Natural gas • Severe price volatility – linked to crude oil price. • Now around $0.05 to $0.07 / kWh Coal • Used to make 14% of Thailand’s electricity • History of respiratory illnesses from coal smoke – Mae Mot, Lampang • Acid rain • Worst fuel for global warming • Limited domestic supply • Cheaper (now) than natural gas ($0.04 to $0.06/kWh) • Strong environmental opposition Big hydro • Used to make 6% of Thailand’s electricity • Consensus: no more big dams will be built in Thailand – Limited sites left in Thailand – Strong environmental opposition • Environmental issues – – – – Inundation Fish killed Global warming Changes in temperature / sediment loading / flow regime • Can be cheap – If reasonably close to load centers Nuclear • In 2007 PDP starting year 2020 • Cost uncertain – $0.02 to $0.12/kWh • Environment & security issues – Generates materials that can be used to make weapons – Thailand has spotty nuclear safety record already – Waste dangerous for thousands of years. Typical electricity source in remote areas: diesel Can we imagine something different? Renewables worldwide • About 20% of all power sector investment is now in renewables Solar 13.7 km TESCO Lotus, Rama I, 460 kWp, Cost: 75,165,000 baht 13.7 km 0.037% of Thailand area 100% peak load (22,586 MW) World-wide 2006: 6,000 MWp cumulative 2007: >9,000 MWp cumulative The fastest growing energy technology in the world is grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV), growing by 60% per year from 2000–2004. Solar 3 kW = 660,000 baht Thai population: 65,069,000 Person per household: 5 Households: 13,014,000 System size: 3 kW If 58% of households 100% of peak load VSPP subsidy: 8 baht / kWh Thai solar home systems 203,000 solar home systems Sustainability challenge Ruggedized solar electric systems built by Karen medics in 3-5 day hands-on trainings • 8 trainings (2003-2007) www.bget.org • >100 medics trained • 37 clinics Solar for computer training centers in seven Karen refugee camps •1 kW PV hybrid with diesel generator •Each powers 12 computers Wind Thai wind potential: 1600 MW (?) Hundreds of watts to 5 MW per turbine Now over 18,000 MW in Germany Denmark gets >17% electricity from wind At windy site, US 5 cents/kWh (1.65 baht/kWh) In Thailand: 6 baht/kWh (?) VSPP subsidy: 2.5 baht/kWh (3.5?) 1 MW = 35,000,000 baht 28,530 MW = Thailand’s peak load in 2007 • Second fastest growing power source world wide. Grew by 28% per year, led by Germany, with over 18 GW installed as of 2005. Wind energy – human scale http://natee2007.thaiza.com 8,200 baht 17.7 baht/kWh Thai wind pioneers build wind power themselves. Wind for water pumping – salt farms 5m 1m 4.5 m 6m 0.5 m 2m 0.3 m Rice husk fired power plant 9.8 MW Roi Et province VSPP: Subsidy 0.3 baht/kWh Korat Waste to Energy - biogas Uses waste water from cassava to make methane Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity 3 x 1 MW gas generators VSPP: Subsidy 0.3 baht/kWh Reduces air and water pollution Biogas from Pig Farms Produces fertilizer Produces electricity 8 x 70 kW generator Ratchaburi Subsidy: 0.3 baht/kwh Rice husk gasifier Rice mill in Nakorn Sawan 400 kW Gasifier electricity from wood Biodiesel Efficient Charcoal Micro-hydro technology Source: Inversin, A. R. (1986). Micro-Hydropower Sourcebook. Micro-hydro technology Pelton Turgo Crossflow Kaplan Centrifugal pump Thai Potential: 1000s of projects - 700 MW (?) Mae Kam Pong, Chiang Mai DEDE + community 40 kW 4 million baht cost Sell electricity to PEA – 400,000 baht/year VSPP subsidy: 0.8 baht/kWh Mae Kam Pong, Chiang Mai 2 @ 20 kW Weir: 2 meters high, 15 meter wide Head: 55 meters Households: 190 Cost: 3.99 million baht Constructed in year: 2526 (1983) Thai Potential: 10,000s of projects – 10s MW (?) Huai Krating, Tak Power: 3 kW Head: 35 meter Flow: 20 liters/second Cost: <200,000 baht (turbine - 24,500 baht) Constructed: 2548 (2005) Kre Khi village, Tak Province 1 kW for school, clinic, church Cost: <150,000 (turbine 10,000) Head: 10 meters Flow: 15 lit/sec Mae Klang Luang, Chaing Mai 200 watts 5,000 baht (turbine: 4,000 baht) Installed: 2550 (2007) Head: 1.7 meters Hydraulic ram pump www.agr.gc.ca Hydraulic ram pump Solar cooking Biogas for cooking www.bget.org Solar water heating Thank you For more information, please contact [email protected] This presentation available at: www.palangthai.org/docs 1) Remove bias in Thailand’s load forecasting Demand growth has been linear over the past 20 years… Peak demand (MW) 30000 y = 844.21x - 2E+06 R2 = 0.989 20000 10000 0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 Historic peak demand 1997 1999 2001 2003 Linear (Historic peak demand) 2005 2007 … but “official forecasts” assume exponential growth 50000 24 power plants 45000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 2007 Forecast Historic peak demand trend 2021 2019 2017 2015 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 0 1985 Peak demand (MW) 40000 … so they always overestimate actual demand, building power plants that aren’t needed… 50000 45000 40000 Jun-93 Dec-94 Oct-95 Oct 96 (Base) Sep 98 (MER) Feb-01 Aug-06 Jan 04 (MEG) Apr 06 Base ACTUAL 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 2021 2019 2017 2015 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 0 1985 MW Peak Demand 35000 Power Development Plan (Planned installed capacity = peak demand + 15% reserve) 2) Consider clean, decentralized options on level playing field Fuel mix in power generation GWh Import Nuke RE Gas Coal Lignite Hydro Cost of Energy (US cents/kWH) Saving electricity is cheaper than generating it 10.0 8.2 Demand Side Management (saving electricity) 8.0 6.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 Lowsulphur coal w/o FGD Lowsulphur fuel oil w/o FGD LNG 5.5 4.0 4.0 2.6 2.1 2.0 1.5 DSM Hydro from Gas Lignite with Laos combined FGD cycle Actual 10-year DSM average cost!!! Lowsulphur coal with FGD Nuclear Type of Power Plant Source: The World Bank (1993)