Transcript www.honolulutraffic.com
Every once in a while we need to build a road!
The American Highway Users Alliance Alan E. Pisarski
Every once in a while we need to build a road!
“The real solution is not reducing traffic to fit capacity,” Mineta said. “We must expand capacity to handle the growing traffic.” US DOT press release Feb 27, 2006
Alan E. Pisarski
Oh OK! -
That was an aviation conference!
Don’t they know that if you build new airports and runways they just fill up again? Maybe we could have FHWA do seminars at FAA?
Alan E. Pisarski
WE HAVE DRAMATIC NATIONAL GOALS FOR TRANSPORTATION !
Our Present National Transportation Goal: MAKING THINGS GET WORSE --- SLOWER!
Apply that to Education; Health?
Alan E. Pisarski
A thought on goals!
If your transportation goals can be met by everyone staying home you have the wrong goals!
Alan E. Pisarski
MY GOAL FOR TRANSPORTATION To reduce the effects of distance as an inhibiting force in our society’s ability to realize its economic and social aspirations
Alan E. Pisarski
The New Millennium World
A STABLE “OLD” POPULATION
THE GLOBALIZATION OF EVERYTHING
SKILLED WORKERS AT A PREMIUM
WORKERS CAN LIVE, WORK ANYWHERE WHO, WHERE ARE THE IMMIGRANTS?
MAINSTREAMING MINORITIES THE SCOURGE OF AFFLUENCE
A CHALLENGED AFFLUENT SOCIETY
Alan E. Pisarski
Work Force Issues
Older workers in labor force Even more females in labor force Even more variable schedules Work hours – a lot like part time Skills matches – more spreading out Amenities-based employment
Alan E. Pisarski
25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 -5000
1980-1990 NET CHANGE NATIONAL
Alan E. Pisarski
14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 -2000
90-00 NET CHANGE NATIONAL
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5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 -1,000,000 -2,000,000 W o rk e rs 1 6 + d ro ve a lo ne ca rp P o ol ub ed lic t ra n sp o rta tio n Alan E. Pisarski W a lk ed O th er m ea ns W o rk e d a t h om e
Non-Auto Tre nds in M ode Share s
7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1980 TRANSIT BICYCLE WORK AT HOME TAXI OTHER 1990 2000 MOTORCYCLE WALKED ONLY Alan E. Pisarski
12% 10%
Back to the ’80’s ?
10.40% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 5.00% 3.20% 2.70% 4.90% 3.40% 2.60% 4.80% 3.50% 2.50% 2000 2001 2002 carpooled Other means 10.40% 4.70% 3.50% 2.30% Public transportation Worked at home 20003 Walked 2004 10.10% 4.60% 3.80% 2.40% Alan E. Pisarski
OR LOOK AT THE POVERTY POP!
10% 5% 1% 2% 4% 78% drove alone: carpooled: Public transportation Walked: Taxicab, motorcycle, bicycle, other Worked at home: Alan E. Pisarski 8% 6% 3% 5% 15% 63%
The Baby-Boomers are coming!
SHARES OF OVER 55 WORKERS BY AGE GROUP
12% 7% 5% 49% 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ 27% Alan E. Pisarski
OVER 55 MODE USAGE - DETAILMODES
14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 Alan E. Pisarski 75+ Bus or trolley bus Subway or elevated Taxicab Walked Worked at home
Immigrant mode trend
Mode Use by Years in US
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% < 5 yrs 5- <10 yrs 10-<15 yrs 15-<20 yrs >20 yrs Alan E. Pisarski BORN US other Worked at home Walked Bicycle transit carpool Drove alone
Carpool Use by Years in US
6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% < 5 yrs 5- <10 yrs 10-<15 yrs 15-<20 yrs >20 yrs BORN US Alan E. Pisarski carpool 3 carpool 4 carpool 5 or 6 carpool 7&+
Percent of workers commuting over 60 minutes and under 20 minutes by metro size
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5,000,000 or more 2,500,000 to 4,999,999 1,000,000 to 2,499,999 500,000 to 999,999 % under 20 % over 60 250,000 to 499,999 100,000 to 249,999 50,000 to 99,999 Alan E. Pisarski
% HH without vehicles in central cities by metro area size
45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5 meg + 2.5-5 1-2.5
.5-1 .25-.5
.1-.25
Alan E. Pisarski WHITE NH cc ASIAN cc HISP cc AF AM cc
WE MUST CONFRONT THE FALLACIES DIRECTLY
“System is in place” Congest our way to the solution Induced Demand- “It just fills up again” “Efficiency” The air quality goal; benefits of free-flow travel dispersal in an affluent society
Alan E. Pisarski
Congestion is our friend!
Disinterest in congestion – bottom of the list of problems to solve Congestion as a goal – if we can let things get bad enough behavior will change The “Constituency for Congestion”
Alan E. Pisarski
The Present Policy Conflict Two Metro Visions
Neighborhood
Shorter trips Walk/bike Land use solutions Design What’s freight?
Accessibility Public Mass Change behavior Make it happen
Globally Integrated
Longer trips Broad “community” Choices Market forces Major role for freight Mobility Private Personalized Technological fix Let it happen Alan E. Pisarski
2000 METRO FLOW MAP Other Metropolitan area Own Metropolitan Area suburbs
1.6
2.9
40.8
suburbs
16.6
24.5
7.5
Central city
.5
1.9
3.5
1.1
.7
2.2
Central city
24.4
Non-metropolitan Area
Alan E. Pisarski
The “Donut” Metro
Jobs and workers centered in suburbs 46% of commutes; 64% of growth 90-00 7.5 million coming in to the subs from exurbs and other metros each day 7.5 million going out to the subs from central cities CC to subs > Subs to CC in share of growth Alan E. Pisarski
Counties exporting more than 25% of workers to work County-to-County Worker Flow Percentage: 2000
W N S E Alan E. Pisarski
Cnty_cnty_wrkrflow.shp
0 - 25 25 - 100
The great loss from congestion is not the extra three minutes it takes to get home
HOUSEHOLDS It’s the decline in the number of jobs I could reach in ½ hr!
It’s the decline in the number of affordable homes accessible to my work!
It’s the decline in the assurance of arriving on time!
Alan E. Pisarski
BUSINESSES It’s the decline in the number of workers within ½ hr of my employment site!
It’s the decline in the number of suppliers & customers within ½ hr of my business!
It’s the decline in ship- ment reliability!
The beginnings of a reaction
freight needs – a dose of reality Irate reactions to congestion 9/11 as a wakeup call It is no longer acceptable that things are bad and our plans accept they will get worse
Alan E. Pisarski
THE LEAVENING POWER OF FREIGHT MOVEMENT
Forces serious consideration of costs Costs are direct and immediate Strongly and directly impacts jobs Think of “Trucks with glass sides” How many ton-miles in my breakfast?
Transportation policy and planning is not a parlor game
Alan E. Pisarski
Community Reactions
Legislatures and business communities demand response to congestion
Washington Georgia Texas Others Texas – “federal program a program for the average state – we are not average.”
What will it take to assure our competitiveness in the future Georgia - “Can we get out of congestion?”
Alan E. Pisarski
Texas: Study Purpose
Led by Governor’s Business Council Goals set by needs and vision rather than available resources-- CLRP to define minimum performance standards and then seek resources to accomplish them compare the benefits of solutions to the cost of solutions Alan E. Pisarski
Texas: Study Recommendations
Focus on goal of TTI of 1.15 in major metros
(15% difference in travel time from peak to off-peak) Hold line where below 1.15
Evaluate projects based on:
Delay Reduction per $ Measure Progress and report annually
Alan E. Pisarski
Texas’s Roadways – Texas’s Future
Study Impacts:
Report to the Governor in April 2003 Governor asked TxDOT – “how addressing congestion?”
Deputy Director – Focus on urban issues TxDOT & metro MPOs -- joint process of identifying costs to meet regional mobility goals H.B. 3588 (2003) require statewide strategic transportation plan tied to:
specific congestion indices mobility plans to meet congestion relief goals
August, 2004 MPOs and TxDOT produced:
Regional mobility goals
provided short-term gap funding to help meet goals Cost estimates to meet goals Process for continual updates (August 2006)
Alan E. Pisarski
GEORGIA: Focus on Atlanta
Atlanta fastest growth big metro
40% population increase in 10 years
30 counties
Greatest growth in travel time Private Sector Studies convinced Governor of need & opportunity
Alan E. Pisarski
GEORGIA: Focus on Atlanta
Charge To Agencies - CMTF
GaDOT
ARC
GRTA SRTA Address Congestion Better Solve With Current Funding Use B/C Cost Analysis
Alan E. Pisarski
GEORGIA: Focus on Atlanta
Study/modify Goals Study/modify Planning Criteria Set Measures of Performance Use Current Funding Better
Alan E. Pisarski
GEORGIA: Focus on Atlanta
FINDINGS Congestion Relief Not a Goal
Given A Weight Of 10% in Plans
Little in Common in Methods Severe Weaknesses in Process Giving Congestion A 50-70% Weight Reduced Congestion -- & Safety & Air Quality
Alan E. Pisarski
GEORGIA: Focus on Atlanta
FINAL RECOMMENDATIONS Set Congestion Goal TTI = 1.35
All Agencies Use Common Methods
Value Of Time
Trucking
Delay Reduction/$ Use B/C Establish Annual Reporting Systems
Alan E. Pisarski
GEORGIA: Focus on Atlanta
ACTIONS CMTF Adopted Recommendations All 4 Agencies Adopted Recommendations Individually Governor Accepted Recommendations Next: An Action Plan
Alan E. Pisarski
Congress hears
Shifts in Planning goals and focus
Safety/Security
Economic development
Accountability Measures
No teeth – parts per million for congestion or any other goal?
Alan E. Pisarski
A New Plan for Planning for States And MPO’s
MEET SAFETY NEEDS SUPPORT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ASSURE SECURITY -- REDUNDANCY
MAINTAIN MOBILITY/RELIABILITY SERVE AGING POPULATIONS
SERVE LOW-INCOME POPULATIONS CLRP Plus WHERE DOES AIR QUALITY FIT IN THIS?
Alan E. Pisarski
The right next steps
Accept public consumer sovereignty A real dedication to solving congestion Adopt measurable performance results Win public respect and support
OR, THE GOVT COULD ELECT NEW PEOPLE!
Alan E. Pisarski
THANK YOU!
Alan E. Pisarski [email protected]