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Hubbert Curve
By
Kathleen Montz , Seth Johnston,
Christopher Kemple
Who is Hubbert?
• Marion King Hubbert
• Born October 5 2009
• Attended University of Chicago
• Studied Math, Geology, and Physics
Hubbert’s experience
• Worked for Shell oil for 21 years
• USGS researcher for 12 years
• Professor at Stanford and UC Berkeley
Hubbert’s Novel Idea
Hubbert’s Novel Idea cont.
• 1956
• Hubbert Curve
• Predicted peak level of oil production
worldwide
Timeline of Hubbert Curve
• Production at time of prediction ~5 gigabarrels
• Worldwide oil production peaks at 12
gigabarrels in 2005
• Predicts future discoveries of 910 gigabarrels
Hubbert Curve Uses
• Can be applied regionally, nationally, and
globally
• Can be used to determined production
potential by oil companies
Uses cont.
• Can also be used for other fossil fuels
• Coal
Peak Oil
• The amount of oil on Earth is finite and the
demand for oil has drastically increased in the
past 50 years.
• The rate of oil production has grown almost
every year for the past century.
Peak Oil
• Peak oil is often misinterpret red to mean that
the oil supply is completely exhausted.
• The real definition is that peak oil occurs when
about half the worlds oil reserves have been
used up.
• This is the transition from a buyers’ market to
a sellers’ market.
Why Does Peak Oil Occur?
• Oil companies will extract the easy to reach oil
first because it costs less to get to.
• Oil closer to the surface has less sulfur content
and is thus easier to refine.
• Once this oil runs out more difficult oil nodes
must be tapped.
Why Does Peak Oil Occur?
• When the oil becomes difficult to reach the
viability of the oil field drops.
• If it takes the energy of a barrel of oil to
extract a barrel of oil then further extraction is
useless.
Evidence
Predictions
• 1956 predicted oil peak
in U.S. in 1970
• Prediction for 2005:
– 178.2 Gb cumulative
– 1.17 Gb current
production
Actual
• In 1970 U.S. oil
production peaked
• Actual in 2005:
– 176.4 Gb cumulative
– 1.55 Gb current
production
Evidence…
1970
File:Hubbert US high.svg - Wikipedia,
the free encyclopedia
Not everyone agrees
• Exponential growth and decline for large
populations
• Leonardo Maugeri , VP of Italian co. ENI
– Recovery rate of oil fields
• 22% in 1980
• 35% today
• Alfred J. Cavallo
– Hubbert's theory is incorrect for world production
• Cambridge Energy Research Associates
– The curve does not work with all countries
– Predicts a plateau before decline
Expected Date
• Experts do not agree on the expected date for
world peak oil.
• Some say that it has recently occurred, some
say that it will occur shortly, and some say that
a plateau of oil production could sustain the
world for up to 100 years.
Experts prediction on peak
• Campbell, C.J. Oil
company geologist;
2010
• Laherrere, J. Oil
company geologist;
2010-2020
• CERA Energy
consultants; after 2020
• Shell Major oil
company; 2025 or
later
• Goodstein, D. Vice
Provost, Cal Tech;
before 2010
U.S. Impact
•
•
•
•
Peak in U.S. has already occurred
U.S. relies heavily on foreign countries.
Are subject to the whims of OPEC
Can cause a recession if oil prices become too
high
• Will cause a shit towards more fuel efficient
transportation more than in other countries.
Global Impact
• Peak oil can cause worldwide depression
• Will force people to change the way they live
• Will force countries to reduce exports faster
than they reduce their production.
• Global warming decrease
Preparedness
• Most of the countries are not prepared
• Use oil as if it was never going to run out
• Slowly getting more prepared
Education
• Most people are somewhat informed
• People overall are coming to the realization
that oil is going to run out
• There are still some that are ignorant of the
facts