Transcript Slide 1

Energy Crises: Their Imminence, Size,
and Impact
Sanjay. V. Khare
Department of Physics and Astronomy,
The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH-43606
http://astro1.panet.utoledo.edu/~khare/
Acknowledgements
Funding: NSF, DARPA, DOE, WPAFB, PVIC from Sate of Ohio,
Data and Slides: Gratitude and thanks to many fellow peakists
Presentation: My student Shandeep Voggu
Center for
Photovoltaics
Innovation and
Commercialization
PVIC: Center for Photovoltaics
Innovation and Commercialization
The PVIC Proposal Team: Co-PI's, Rob Collins (UT) & Bob Davis (OSU)
-- 3 Ohio Universities:
– 12 Ohio Companies:
– University of Toledo
– Owens Corning
– Ohio State University
– Pilkington
– Bowling Green State
– SSOE
University
– Solar Fields
– Midwest Optoelectronics
– 4 Ohio Not-for-Profit Organizations: – Innovative Thin Films
– LakeShore Cryotronics
– Battelle Memorial Institute
– Decker Homes
– Green Energy Ohio
– Edison Materials Technology – Advanced Distributed Generation
– Metamateria Partners
Center
– NewCyte
– Honda OSU Partnership
– Cornerstone Research Group
Honda-OSU
Partnership
Program
Solar
Fields
Center for
Photovoltaics
Innovation and
Commercialization
PVIC: Center for Photovoltaics
Innovation and Commercialization
Financial overview of PVIC request (three years):
• capital funds
UT
OSU
BGSU
• operating funds
UT
OSU
BGSU
$11 M
$5.1M
3.5M
2.4M
$7.6 M
$4.24M
3.27M
0.09M
Sustainability Goal: continue innovation growth with operating fund
revenue growing from $2.5 M/yr
Four Distinct Crises
Problem
Imminence
Impact
Awareness
I Global Warming
Approaching
(5 to 10 years)
GRADUAL over
10 – 100+ years
HIGH
II Peak Production
Liquid Fuels
Now
(-3 to 5 years)
CATASTROPIC
Undertanding is
POOR
III Peak Production
Approaching
CATASTROPIC
Total Energy
(10 to 15 years)
Understanding
is POOR
CATASTROPIC
Can be
exacerbated by
I - III
INCREASING
IV Peak Other
Materials (food, top
soil, fertile land,
H2O, P, U, Au)
Now
(0 to 5 years)
PEAK OIL
(and the unfolding energy crisis)
-What is Peak Oil?
-What are the consequences?
-What can we do about it?
Fuel Prices
Yesterday
Today
… Tomorrow?
1955
2005
Oil originates from the decomposition of
microorganisms that got buried under
geologic formations in the sea millions of
years ago.
In some cases
the sea retreated,
which explains
why oil is also
found on land.
-Oil was a gift from
nature.
-It took millions of
years to produce
-When it’s gone, it’s
gone forever
Before the first oil well was dug
in Pennsylvania in 1859,
Nature had made about two
trillion barrels of oil and
scattered it unevenly around
the world.
By 2006 we’ve used up about
0.96 trillion. In other words
we’re near the half-way point.
“Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage”, Kenneth S. Deffeyes
Gasoline use
An oil well isn’t like a car’s fuel
tank
0
time
• With a car you can drive at
full speed until the moment
you run out of fuel.
• That’s because your tank is
a hollow cavity. The fuel
fills the bottom of the tank
and there’s nothing
preventing it from being
pumped out.
But an oil well isn’t a hollow cavity
• It’s a large deposit of stones
or sandstone sandwiched
between two layers of
impervious rock. The hollow
spaces between the stones or
sand are filled with thick and
viscous oil.
• A pipe is lowered into the
mixture of oil and stones or
sand and the oil is slowly
pumped up.
Click
It takes time for oil to ooze from
zones of high concentration to
the zone of low concentration
near the pipe.
In order to extract the oil from an oil
field, a large number of wells are
drilled.
An oil field yields its contents over
the years, something like this.
An oil field empties
rapidly at the start
and yields lots of oil.
Then the flow
slows down
gradually.
Towards the
end the flow
eases to a
trickle.
When you plot the production of an aggregate of oil
fields, it approximates a bell curve
Contrast with car fuel tank
Gasoline use
Mid point
Top of the curve
0
1st half
2nd half
time
The top of the bell
curve is what
petroleum experts
refer to as the oil
peak or peak oil.
Remember that we’ve used up almost half of the
world’s oil. When we reach the half-way point on a bell
curve, we embark upon the decline.
…and from then on, oil production
will decline year after year…
http://www.oilcrisis.com/
The Hubbert Peak
In 1956 Hubbert, using mathematical models,
predicted that the oil extraction for the US
lower 48 states would peak in 1970
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/
• Many oil fields,
countries, and oil
companies have
already peaked.
• The US peaked in
1970.
• 53 of 68 oil
producing
countries are in
decline.
Oil discoveries in the US peaked
- then 40 years later production peaked
The US lower 48 states
Adapted from Collin Campbell, University of Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000
World Oil: Discoveries follow same
pattern as US production
If the world follows the US pattern:
…the world would peak soon
Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist
And Prices are Spiking
Energy Return
On Energy Invested (EROEI)
It refers to the ratio of:
The amount
of energy spent
on getting the
fuel:
The amount of
energy in the
fuel:
Either
gasoline,
diesel,
kerosene, etc.
“The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg
AND
exploration,
drilling, pumping,
transportation
and refining
Energy Return On Energy Invested
is diminishing as we resort to going after
the hard-to-get oil:
• Before 1950 it was about 100 to 1
• In the 1970s it was down to 30 to 1
• Now (2005) it’s about 10 to 1
• The Tar Sands have an EROEI of about 4 to 1
“The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg
Net Surplus Energy (NSE)
TM
= Total mass of energy providing material
e.g., oil, coal, gas, wind turbine, PV modules
EPM = Energy produced per unit mass
NSE = TM X EPM (Naive Calculation)
Correct Calculation
EROEI= Energy Returned on Energy Invested =
NSE = TM x EPM x EROEI = TM x EPM x
E
out
E
in
E
out
E
in
We are running out of both TM and EROEI
If the world follows the US pattern:
…the world would peak soon
Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist
There Are No More Giant Oil
Fields Being Discovered
• In spite of advanced
exploration technology
we are finding smaller
and smaller oil fields
• 4 fields (giants) out of
4000 produce 10% of
crude today
• They are all in decline!
• 125 of 4000 total
produce 50% of crude
today!
We’re
consuming 4
barrels…
“The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg
…for each
barrel of oil
that is being
discovered
Exploration doesn’t pay anymore
In 2003 oil companies
spent $8 billion on
exploration and
discovered $4 billion in
new reserves.*
Since 2000, the
cost of finding and
developing new
sources of oil has
risen about 15%
annually.
* Thomas Homer Dixon and Julio Friedmann, N.Y. Times, 25 Mar 2005
** John S. Herold consulting firm
There’s no more spare capacity
in the world supply
30%
Spare capacity =
how much extra oil
can be produced
within 30 days
notice and
maintained for 90
days
25%
20%
SPARE OIL
PRODUCTION
15%
CAPACITY
10%
5%
0%
1985
Adapted from “The Oil Age is Over”, Matt Savinar
1990
2003
2004
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Abu
Dhabi
28.0
29.0
30.6
30.5
30.4
30.5
30.0
31.0
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
Dubai
Iran
Iraq
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.3
4.3
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
58.0
57.5
57.0
55.3
51.0
48.5
47.9
48.8
92.9
92.9
92.9
92.9
92.9
92.9
89.3
88.2
93.0
93.0
89.7
89.7
89.7
89.7
89.7
31.0
30.0
29.7
41.0
43.0
44.5
44.1
47.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
112.0
112.5
112.5
112.5
112.5
112.5
112.5
Kuwait Neutral
Zone
65
6.1
66
6.0
65
5.9
64
5.7
64
5.6
90
5.4
90
5.4
92
5.3
92
5.2
92
5.2
92
5.0
95
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
Saudi
Arabia
163
165
165
162
166
169
169
167
167
170
258
258
258
259
259
259
259
259
259
261
261
261
261
Venezuela
18
18
20
22
25
26
26
25
56
58
59
59
63
63
65
65
65
72
73
73
77
78
78
Spurious
OPEC
Reserve
Revisions
Peak Total Energy
Total Energy Use, 1965 to 2050, (Courtesy: Paul Chefurka)
Summary about Supply
• We will soon reach peak oil in (-1 to 5 years)
• After that we will have less energy for
transportation every year than the previous
year. This will go on indefinitely!
• Net total surplus energy for all uses will peak in
10 to 20 years
• After that we will have less energy every year
than the previous year. This will go on
indefinitely!
PEAK OIL
Part 2
-What are the consequences?
-Extremely Serious!
We will soon reach the point where we can’t pump out enough to
keep up with demand [Even if demand is constant!]. Then we go
into PERMANENT, IRREVERSIBLE decline!
Oil is so versatile…
The petrochemical industry can refine oil into many
different fuels and products.
Gas
Naphtha
Gasoline
Kerosene
Diesel
Lubricants
http://science.howstuffworks.com
Including plastics, textiles,
pharmaceuticals, paints, dies, asphalt
No easy scalable substitute for oil
Tourism only exists because
cheap oil is available
Impact: Economic, Social and Cultural
• Growth Economics ==> Steady or Shrinking Economy
• Industries
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Tourism
Entertainment (movies in theaters, sports, theme parks, shopping)
Restaurants
Transportation (cars, trucks, oil-ships vs. electric (trains and cars), sailships)
Banking
Finance
Housing (Suburban long commute vs. urban walking)
Farming, Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Lumbering, Energy equipment
• Family Structure
– Grandparent-Parent-Child relationship
– Husband-Wife relationship
– Neighbor-Neigbor relationship (less house mobility)
Resource Wars for Oil
Fossil Fuel and Agriculture
• Farming “is an annual artificial catastrophe,
and it requires the equivalent of three or four
tons of TNT per acre for a modern American
farm. Iowa's fields require the energy of 4,000
Nagasaki bombs every year.” 1
1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005. Mr. Manning was referring to the
growing of the world’s major grain crops - corn, rice and wheat.
Fossil Fuel and Agriculture
• On average, the food industry uses 10
calories of fossil fuel energy to produce
1 calorie of food.
• For pork, it’s 68 calories for 1 calorie on
your plate.
• For beef, it’s 35 calories for 1 calorie on
your plate. 1
1
Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005.
Population
Billions of People
6
5
?
First Oil Well
4
3
2
OIL (1857)
1
0
0
500
1000
1500
Anno Domini
2000
2500
PEAK OIL
Part 3
-What can we do about it?
Is there an easy solution?
• No, not in reality.
• Conservation is a partial solution.
• Alternative fuels (solar, wind, geothermal) are likely to
provide help but not for transport.
• New technology like battery-operated cars are likely to
help a little only in the long run (> 20 years).
• Demand Reduction: We may need to unwind good
portion of globalization; go back to simpler life styles,
technologies that worked before.
Correct definition of a good life
Less material consumption
More meaningful relationships with humans, plants, animals and location.
Energy and basic human needs. The international relationship between
energy use (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita) and the Human
Development Index (2000). (Source: UNDP, 2002, WRI, 2002)
Mitigation
Type of Effort
Importance
Conservation and efficiency, personal and societal
High
Rapid deployment of existing technology, public
transport, electric-transport, wind, solar-heat and
photovoltaic, geothermal
High
Raising awareness by scientists and engineers of
locals, media and policy makers
High
Applied engineering research
Medium term
(5 – 10 years)
Long Term
Fundamental research done today will have scaled
impact after 20 years
(10 – 20 years)
Most
important step
• A Depletion Protocol to cut
imports to match depletion rate
• Will avoid wars
Priorities (USA)
-Tackle population growth
-Massive public education for reduction in demand
(targets of 50 to 80% per capita in 10 years)
- Stop corn ethanol immediately
-World War II type effort for energy conservation in homes
and buildings, new solid state lighting, CAFE standards
-World War II type effort for car and truck batteries,
wind, geothermal, and wave energy
-Greater use of arable land for growing crops such as
oilseeds, willow for wood pellets, forest generation
-Buying locally produced goods where possible
solar,
Battery Materials for Transport
Material
Power
Density
Li ion (Li2CO3)
High
High
Unknown
Zebra (NaMCl)
Low
High
Unknown
Lead Acid
High
Low
Unknown
High
Unknown
High
Unknown
Ultracapacitor
(BaTiO3)
High
Others (NaS)
High
Total Energy / Material Peak
(unit mass)
Production
What can I do now?
• Work on:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Getting educated yourself first
Reducing your liquid fuels consumption by 50% to 80%
Educating family, friends, co-workers, policy-makers
Contacting your local, state, and federal representatives
Trying to reduce consumption in your line of work
Changing careers from energy consuming to energy producing industries
Participating and influencing the media
• Teach children about these issues to continue dialogue into
future generations
Your actions will make the future
If we do nothing
Techno-fantasy led
techno-fixes
with no basis in reality
If we work very hard
for 25 years!
Thank You
References:
• www.theoildrum.com
• www.energybulletin.net
• www.aspo-usa.org
• Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak; By
Kenneth S. Deffeyes
• Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil; By David
Goodstein
• Twilight in the Desert; by Matthew R. Simmons