Transcript Document

PEAK OIL
(and the unfolding energy crisis)
-What is Peak Oil?
-What are the consequences?
-What can we do about it?
Fuel Prices - Yesterday, Today, …
Tomorrow?
1955
2005
Oil originates from the chemical
decomposition of microorganisms that got
buried under geologic formations in the sea
millions of years ago.
In some cases
the sea retreated,
which explains
why oil is also
found on land.
-Oil was a gift from
nature.
-It took millions of
years to produce
-When it’s gone, it’s
gone forever
Before the first oil well was dug in
Pennsylvania in 1859, Nature had
made about two trillion barrels of
recoverable oil and scattered it
unevenly around the world.
By 2006 we’ve used up about 0.96
trillion. In other words we’re near
the half-way point.
“Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage”, Kenneth S. Deffeyes
An oil well isn’t like a car’s fuel
tank.
 With a car you can drive at
full speed until the moment
you run out of fuel.
 That’s because your tank is a
hollow cavity. The fuel fills
the bottom of the tank and
there’s nothing preventing it
from being pumped out.
But an oil well isn’t a hollow
cavity.
 It’s a large deposit of stones or
sandstone sandwiched between
two layers of impervious rock.
The hollow spaces between the
stones or sand are filled with
thick and viscous oil.
 A pipe is lowered into the
mixture of oil and stones or sand
and the oil is pumped up.
Click
It takes time for oil to ooze from
zones of high pressure to the zone
of low pressure near the pipe.
In order to extract the oil from an oil
field, a large number of wells are drilled.
An oil field yields its contents over
the years, something like this.
An oil field empties
rapidly at the start and
yields lots of oil.
Then the flow
slows down
gradually.
Towards the end
the flow eases to
a trickle.
When you plot the production of an aggregate of oil
fields, it approximates a bell curve
Mid point
1st half
Top of the curve
2nd half
The top of the bell
curve is what
petroleum experts
refer to as the oil
peak or peak oil.
Remember that we’ve used up almost half of the world’s
oil. When we reach the half-way point on a bell curve, we
embark upon the decline.
…and from then on, oil production
will decline year after year…
http://www.oilcrisis.com/
The Hubbert Peak
In 1956 Hubbert, using mathematical models,
predicted that the oil extraction for the US lower
48 states would peak in 1970
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/
• Many oil fields,
countries, and oil
companies have
already peaked.
• The US peaked in
1970.
• 53 of 68 oil
producing
countries are in
decline.
Oil discoveries in the US peaked
- then 40 years later production peaked
The US lower 48 states
Adapted from Collin Campbell, University of Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000
If the world follows the US pattern:
…the world would peak soon
Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist
There Are No More Giant Oil
Fields Being Discovered
• In spite of advanced
exploration
technology we are
finding smaller and
smaller oil fields
We’re
consuming 4
barrels…
“The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg
…for each
barrel of oil
that is being
discovered
Energy Return
On Energy Invested
(EROEI)
It refers to the ratio of:
The amount
of energy spent on
getting the fuel:
The amount of
energy in the
fuel:
Either gasoline,
diesel,
kerosene, etc.
“The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg
AND
exploration,
drilling, pumping,
transportation and
refining
Energy Return On Energy Invested
is diminishing as we resort to going after
the hard-to-get oil:
 Before 1950 it was about 100 to 1
 In the 1970s it was down to 30 to 1
 Now (2005) it’s about 10 to 1
 The Tar Sands have an EROEI of about 4 to 1
“The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg
Exploration doesn’t pay anymore
In 2003 oil companies
spent $8 billion on
exploration and
discovered $4 billion in
new reserves.*
Since 2000, the cost
of finding and
developing new
sources of oil has
risen about 15%
annually.
* Thomas Homer Dixon and Julio Friedmann, N.Y. Times, 25 Mar 2005
** John S. Herold consulting firm
There’s no more spare capacity
in the world supply
30%
Spare capacity =
how much extra oil
can be produced
within 30 days
notice and
maintained for 90
days
25%
20%
SPARE OIL
PRODUCTION
15%
CAPACITY
10%
5%
0%
1985
Adapted from “The Oil Age is Over”, Matt Savinar
1990
2003
2004
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Abu
Dhabi
28.0
29.0
30.6
30.5
30.4
30.5
30.0
31.0
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
92.2
Dubai
Iran
Iraq
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.3
4.3
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
58.0
57.5
57.0
55.3
51.0
48.5
47.9
48.8
92.9
92.9
92.9
92.9
92.9
92.9
89.3
88.2
93.0
93.0
89.7
89.7
89.7
89.7
89.7
31.0
30.0
29.7
41.0
43.0
44.5
44.1
47.1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
112.0
112.5
112.5
112.5
112.5
112.5
112.5
Kuwait Neutral
Zone
65
6.1
66
6.0
65
5.9
64
5.7
64
5.6
90
5.4
90
5.4
92
5.3
92
5.2
92
5.2
92
5.0
95
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
94
5.0
Saudi
Arabia
163
165
165
162
166
169
169
167
167
170
258
258
258
259
259
259
259
259
259
261
261
261
261
Venezuela
18
18
20
22
25
26
26
25
56
58
59
59
63
63
65
65
65
72
73
73
77
78
78
Spurious
OPEC
Reserve
Revisions
Les Magoon, an oil geologist
and scientist emeritus with
the U.S. Geological Survey:
“My feeling is this is the beginning
of the oil peak and the next
administration, whoever it may be,
is going to have to deal with this.
We're not going to run out of oil, it's
just that the demand on a daily
basis will far exceed the ability of
the world to produce oil so the price
is going to go up,"
JOAN LOWY, Scripps Howard News Service, October 28, 2004
Mike Bowlin, Chairman and
CEO, ARCO, 1999; Chairman,
American Petroleum Institute:
“We’ve embarked on the
beginning of the last days of the
age of oil.”
JOAN LOWY, Scripps Howard News Service, October 28, 2004
British Petroleum Statistical
Review of World Energy:
“18 major oil-producing
countries are now past
their peak production.”
Beyond Petroleum
US Vice-President Dick Cheney,
when he was Chairman of
Halliburton, 1999:
“By some estimates there will be an
average of two per cent annual growth
in global oil demand over the years
ahead, along with conservatively a
three per cent natural decline in
production from existing reserves. That
means by 2010 we will need on the
order of an additional fifty million
barrels a day.”
Saudi saying:
“My father rode a
camel.
I drive a car.
My son flies a jet
airplane.
His son will ride a
camel.”
PEAK OIL
Part 2
-What are the consequences?
Energy Slaves
Population
Billions of People
6
5
?
First Oil Well
4
3
2
OIL (1857)
1
0
0
500
1000
1500
Anno Domini
2000
2500
The life support pie is shrinking:
The foundation of all
agriculture, the soil,
is diminishing in all
parts of the world
Aquifers are being
pumped dry
Biodiversity is
being
extinguished
Forests are
disappearing
Fisheries are
being
decimated
Rivers are
drying up
Fossil Fuel and Agriculture
• Farming “is an annual artificial catastrophe,
and it requires the equivalent of three or
four tons of TNT per acre for a modern
American farm. Iowa's fields require the
energy of 4,000 Nagasaki bombs every
year.” 1
1 Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005. Mr. Manning was referring to the
growing of the world’s major grain crops - corn, rice and wheat.
Fossil Fuel and Agriculture
• On average, the food industry uses 10
calories of fossil fuel energy to produce 1
calorie of food.
• For pork, it’s 68 calories for 1 calorie on
your plate.
• For beef, it’s 35 calories for 1 calorie on
your plate. 1
1
Richard Manning; “The Oil We Eat”, Harpers, 2005.
Fertilizer Association of Ireland
“World population today stands at 5.8 billion and is
expected to increase to 8.0 billion by 2020. Cereals
are the world's most important stable nutrient
source and to meet future demand cereal production
will need to double by the year 2020. Production of
other foodstuffs will also have to increase
significantly.Fertilizer, both organic and inorganic,
will have to play a vital role if the food production
necessary to support the increased population is to
be provided”.
Fertilizer Association of Ireland
This graph
shows that GDP
increases when
oil production
(energy)
increases.
In other words,
economic growth
requires growth
of energy supply.
We will soon reach the point where we
can’t pump out enough to keep up with
demand.
 Oil is so versatile…
The petrochemical industry can refine oil into many
different fuels and products.
Gas
Naphtha
Gasoline
Kerosene
Diesel
Lubricants
http://science.howstuffworks.com
including plastics, textiles,
pharmaceuticals etc..
Tourism only exists because
cheap oil is available
Resource Wars for Oil
“I cannot think of a time when we have had a region emerge
as suddenly to become as strategically significant as the
Caspian." But the oil and gas there is worthless until it is
moved. The only route which makes both political and
economic sense is through Afghanistan”
Dick Cheney as CEO Halliburton in 1998
December 2002, The BBC
Central Asia pipeline deal signed
By Ian McWilliam
BBC correspondent in Kabul
An agreement has been signed in the Turkmen capital, Ashgabat, paving
the way for construction of a gas pipeline from the Central Asian republic
through Afghanistan to Pakistan.
The building of the trans-Afghanistan pipeline has been under discussion
for some years but plans have been held up by Afghanistan's unstable
political situation.
IRAN, NIGERIA, VENEZUELA?????
Saudi envoy urges no U.S. attack on Iran
By David R. Sands
The Washington Times
Published May 31, 2006
WASHINGTON -- A military strike against Iran's suspected
nuclear sites would have "catastrophic" effects on other Persian
Gulf states and on U.S. interests in the region and beyond, Saudi
Arabia's ambassador to Washington warned yesterday.
U.S. ships in Nigeria to protect oil
ABUJA, Nigeria, June 1 (UPI) -- The U.S. presence in the Gulf of Guinea is
said to be a result of the U.S. Navy protecting Nigerian oil plants from
terrorists, Nigeria's The Guardian reported.
A report published in the Nigerian newspaper Wednesday said that the
U.S. Navy was patrolling the Gulf of Guinea, home to Nigeria's biggest
oil field, Bonga Project, to prevent the field from being targeted "by
terrorists and other maritime criminals."
Forbes
Venezuela Adds Troops to Colombian
Border
By FABIOLA SANCHEZ , 06.02.2006, 11:32 PM
Venezuela is beefing up its troop strength
along the Colombian border, negotiating
with Russia to set up arms factories, and
preparing for a possible invasion, the army
commander said Friday.
"We cannot set aside the possibility of a
military invasion on our country," because
its vast oil deposits make it a target, he
said.
THE ENVIRONMENT
Arctic Ice Cap, 1979 vs 2003
World Temperature History
Global warming predictions
are underestimated say
scientists
Ian Sample, science
correspondent
Tuesday May 23, 2006
The Guardian
British efforts to combat climate change
have focused on preventing carbon dioxide
levels rising above 450 parts per million,
equivalent to a rise of 2C. If the world
warms by more than this, many climate
experts believe fragile ecosystems will be
pushed beyond their "tipping point",
triggering runaway global warming.
Atmospheric CO2
PEAK OIL
Part 3
-What can we do about it?
Many solutions in sight
•A Depletion Protocol to cut imports to
match depletion rate
•New energy saving policies
–achievable with little pain
•Climate change fears may evaporate
•Many technological solutions
–not for finding more oil, but for using less
Priorities
-Tackle population growth.
-Impose very high levels of fuel efficiency for cars and
energy efficiency for houses
-Spend less money on roads and more on renewable energy
programmes and DECENT public transport systems
-Grants for domestic electricity generation
-A reasoned debate on the use of nuclear power
-Greater use of arable land for growing crops such as
rapeseed, sugar for ethanol, willow for wood pellets etc.
-Buying locally produced goods where possible
Which Future?
Mad Max
Star Trek
Greenpeace
Thank You