Transcript The Hubbert Curve - Kenneth M. Klemow

Richard Harth, Megan Gershey, Rosalie Morgans, Nisarg
Joshi and Joshua Olzinski
 Introduction
 Support
 Date?
 Impacts
 Readiness for peak in production
 World Education?
 In 1956, Marion King Hubbert developed a theory in which he titled
“The Hubbert Curve” now referred to as “The Hubbert Peak Theory”
predicting that petroleum supplies did not come in an endless supply
 The Hubbert Curve is a bell shaped curve that portrays the exponential
growth of petroleum production, a peak in production, and an eventual
decline in production.
 The Hubbert Curve can be successfully applied to the
production of petroleum in the United States as well as
the production of petroleum on a national level.
 The Hubbert Curve predicted that the oil production
in the U.S. would peak between 1965-1970 at 10.2
million barrels of petroleum/day.
 The curve also predicted a peak worldwide in 2010.
 "The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the
production of oil in any area under consideration,
recognising that it is a finite natural resource, subject
to depletion."
 --Colin Campbell
 Some are in disagreement with the Hubbert Curve in
that it does not take into account any other sources of
petroleum besides crude oil.
 Although unconventional oil is not taken into
account, the basic principle behind the Hubbert Curve
that production will eventually peak and decline still
stands.
 The production of oil peaked in the U.S. in 1971 at 12
Gb/year. (very close to Hubbert’s prediction)
 Currently, 33 out of 48 of the largest oil producing
companies have already reached a peak.
 Oil production in the mid-nineteenth century
recovered 50 barrels of oil per barrel that was
extracted. The number of barrels recovered today is 1-5
per barrel extracted.
 Evidence only leads to one question, when oil
production will peak worldwide?
 Optimistic:
 Optimistic views held by researchers predict a peak in
oil production around 2020, becoming critical closer
to 2030.
 Some believe that the world will never peak.
 In October 2009, a report published by the UK Energy
Resource Center, based on a review of over 500 studies
confirmed that a peak in conventional oil will occur
before 2030.
 Pessimistic view holders believe that a peak has
already happened.
 The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
(ASPO) predicted in their January 2008 newsletter
that the peak in all oil (including non-conventional
sources), would occur in 2010.
 With the varying estimations of data, it is difficult to
conclude when the world will peak or if it has
happened already.
 Most data, however, supports optimism, placing a peak
date around 2020-2030.
 This date varies from Hubbert’s predicted date due to
the attempted regulation of OPEC and the use of
alternative energies.
 U.S.?
 Global?
 Fossil fuels have been the most important stimuli of
economic growth and prosperity since the industrial
revolution.
 U.S. oil production has been on the decline from its
peak in 1971.
 The increase in technologies and new energy sources
has slowed the decline.
 Increasing populations are now stressing the oil
production more than ever as oil increases in demand.
 Products produced by oil will become scarce and
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expensive, resulting in a crisis in agriculture and
industry.
Gas prices will shoot up, restricting everyday life.
Transportation will drastically be changed.
Postal services will stop.
Farm animals will starve because food cannot be
delivered.
Schools and Hospitals may have to shutdown.
 Peaks in both discoveries of new oil(1965, 55 billion
barrels/year) and in oil reserves(when oil production
surpassed discoveries in 1979) present a pending
problem for the dramatically increasing population.
 In order to have a sustainable economy, the world
population would have to be reduced by two thirds.
 According to Dale Allen Pfeifer, a geologist and
investigator of the Hubbert Peak Theory, “The oil peak
may cause a global agricultural crisis with spiraling
food prices without relief and massive starvation on a
global level.”
 The inflation of oil prices presents a chance for war
between nations.
 Economic reccession.
 In order to cope with this decline of oil, a sustainable
source of energy has to be developed.
 Unconventional oil sources still remain in abundance
but are costly to extract.
 The U.S. consumes 40% oil of its total energy. Only 7%
is renewable energy.
 The inflation of oil prices will give alternatives a
window to work in that will slow oil consumption and
but us time to find a viable source.
 Ultimately, we are running out of time and without
swift action, oil will reach depletion faster than
expected
 Regarding peak oil, people are becoming more
knowledgeable because of increases in gas prices.
 The “Green Revolution” has made the peak known,
from developing fuel efficient cars to using
alternatives, steps are being made in the right
direction.
 The media pushes for knowledgiablity and tries to
educate the public of potential outcomes if action is
not taken.
 Overall, people appear to be well educated.