Transcript Hubbert Peak Theory - Kenneth M. Klemow, Ph.D.

Hubbert Peak
Theory
Chelsea Fufaro, Brianna Wallace, Ray Sites
Intro
• Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 – October 11, 1989)
was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in
Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to
geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the
Hubbert Curve and Hubbert peak theory
• Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of
petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of
production is expected to enter terminal decline. Global
production of oil fell from a high point in 2005 at 74 mb/d, but
has since rebounded setting new records in both 2011 and
2012. There is active debate as to when global peak oil will
occur, how to measure peak oil, and whether peak oil
production will be supply or demand driven.
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M._King_Hubbert
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil_theory
Objectives
• Discuss:
•
•
•
•
evidence surrounding theory
what will happen if petroleum peaks
the U.S. preparation for peak oil
the public’s awareness of peak oil
What evidence supports the
Hubbert peak theory?
• Petroleum is a naturally occurring, complex mixture found beneath
the earth's surface and obtained mostly by oil drilling. The issue
addressed in peak theory is about us no longer being able to obtain it.
• Since it is used in such mass quantities world wide (about 90 million
barrels a day) it is a major concern that, in the near future, we will
lack the resources necessary to extract oil.
• While there is an active search for alternative energy sources, it is
important that we have an estimate of the time we have left with
petroleum. The Hubbert peak theory provides us with such an
estimate, and has proven to be mostly accurate multiple times since
Hubbert's prediction in 1956.
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory#Criticisms_of_pe
ak_oil
Does everybody agree with
that evidence? If not, explain.
• The issues with obtaining oil are above ground and are to be
found in the availability of staff, expertise, technology,
investment security, and money. Some also say that the recent
high prices of gas might also add to a future demise of the oil
industry. To some however, these topics are currently less of a
concern. They feel there is still a large amount of oil that can
be extracted using conventional methods. While that is true in
some regard, that amount is growing smaller every day.
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory#Criticisms
_of_peak_oil
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#Criticisms
The Impact and Supply
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
If petroleum production does peak the impact would be:
Inflation
Higher gas prices
Higher energy prices
Higher costs through the economy
Global Recessions
If petroleum production does peak, it will not run out
immediately. There will just be an end to cheap oil.
• http://www.resilience.org/primer
Agreements
• If petroleum production does peak, the agreements that
experts have vary
• Some experts believe that there will be a post –peak
production decline and a global economy implication and oil
increase.
• Optimistic experts believe that production will occur after
2020
• From 2007 on, pessimistic experts believe that production the
oil had already occurred or that oil production will occur
shortly.
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Peak Oil
• Peak Oil Defined
– the point in time when global production of oil reaches its maximum rate, after
which production will decline greatly.
• US borrows $1 billion per day to pay for US oil consumption
• During 1990, there was a large increase of consumption of coal,
natural gas, and oil.
• Increasing Resource Consumption:
• Coal: 2.2% per year.
• Natural Gas: 2.1% per year in all sectors (residential, industrial,
electric companies) but had remained constant over the past 10
years.
• Petroleum consumption increased due to increases in transportation
(more car, more miles driven, no increases in fuel economy).
• Fuel economy has actually decreased 6% due to an increase of SUV
and light truck sales.
-resulted in a 22% increase in total gasoline consumption between 1990
and 2005.
How Prepared is the U.S. for a
peak in Production?
• As the industry exhausts old reserves, the industry tries to keep
inventory up by adding new reserves.
• The addition of these new reserves historically have not been able
to meet demand in the US and since 1962 until now, we have not
been able to replenish the domestic oil consumed in any particular
year with the discovery of new reserves.
• World demand for oil continues to increase.
• The US produces more oil than any country except Saudi Arabia and
Russia despite the fact that U.S. had less than 2% of the world’s
known oil reserves which is only enough to last approximately 4
years if used at current rates.
• Fossil fuels are projected to constitute the majority of our energy
supplies well into the 21st century, but estimates of the amount of a
resource thought to exist are always tenuous, especially for
petroleum.
• Petroleum supplies 38% of the world’s energy needs today.
-Hubbert curve suggests that by the middle of the 21st century, oil
production will be only 10% of present levels.
Is the Public Educated?
• Common Public Misconception: Peak oil DOES NOT mean we
are running out of oil
• Regional or National production is maintained or increased by
adding production from new fields, not existing oil fields.
• When production from a large number of fields has peaked
and begun to decline, and there are not enough large new
fields being found and developed to offset the lost production,
the system is said to have peaked.
• Although, oil is a non-renewable resource and as a limited
resource it is only inevitable that the ability to extract this
resource will peak and begin to decline.
Sources
• http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/LO/docs/portlandpotfoverview_l
omar09.pdf