Transcript Document
Transitioning from the Age of Fossil Fuels
Feb 27, 2007
Bill Blackwell Harvard (MA) Local: Solutions for a Sustainable Community www.harvardlocal.org
Acknowledgment of ideas, data and slides:
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Richard Heinberg, New College, respected author on Peak Oil Cutler Cleveland, BU Professor of Geography and Environment Charlie Hall, SUNY-ESF Arthur Smith, CEO John S. Herold, Inc.
Matthew Simmons, Chairman Simmons & Company International Lawrence Livermore Natl Labs Rob Hopkins, Transition Culture Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC; Roger Bezdek & Robert Wendling, MISI Kelly Sims Gallagher, JFK School of Government M. King Hubbert, USGS Geophysicist Kenneth Deffeyes, Geologist Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review Khebab, The Oil Drum
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Stuart Staniford, Editor The Oil Drum BP Statistical Review of World Energy US-DOE Energy Information Agency (EIA) ISO-NE The New York Times Colin Campbell, Geologist Cameron Wake, UNH Paleoclimatologist Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Union of Concerned Scientists J. David Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada Mark Archambault, Nashua River Watershed Assn.
US Census Bureau Widmeyer Research & Polling Richard Lawrence, ASPO-USA, Intel
The 100 Year Energy Transition
Composition of U.S. Energy Use
From renewable fuels to non renewable fuels in 200 years Cutler J. Cleveland, Prof. Geography and Environment, Boston University ASPO-USA Boston, MA October 27, 2006
Arthur L. Smith, CEO John S. Herold, Inc., ASPO Boston 2006
http://transitionculture.org/
Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute www.rmi.org
What’s so great about oil?
• Incredibly energy dense • One gallon of oil produces energy equivalent to
45 people toiling all day.
• Stable at room temperature • Easily stored and transported • Low cost of extraction (initially) • Versatile • Abundant http://transitionculture.org/
0% 3% 3% 1% 2% 7%
US Oil Consumption 2003
8% 46% 11%
How do we use oil?
Motor Gasoline Distillate Fuel Oil LPG Kerosene/Jet Fuel Residual Asphalt & Road Oil Petroleum Coke Lubricants Aviation Gas Other Petroleum 19% Mainly in transportation and space heating (65%) • World uses 84 million barrels/day • U.S. uses 21 million barrels/day (25%) Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC; Roger Bezdek, MISI; Robert Wendling, MISI February 2005
Kelly Sims Gallagher, JFK School of Government, ASPO-USA 2006 Boston
Dr. M. King Hubbert
USGS Research Geophysicist Shell Oil Geologist • In 1956, Hubbert predicted that US-48 oil production would peak in 1970.
• Hubbert further predicted a worldwide peak at "about half a century" from 1956.
Hubbert’s Production Curve
Production curve for a region = sum of the production of individual wells in the region.
In most oil regions, production lags discovery by about 40 years
Worldwide discovery peaked in 1964
60 60 50 40 Past Future Production 50 40 30 20 Past discovery by ExxonMobil Past after Exxon-Mobil 3yr moving average 30 20 10 10 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 0
Worldwide production and demand
Another way to look at global peak oil
The linearization of Hubbert’s curve.
P/Q vs. Q P=Annual production Q=Cumulative production World reserves are predicted to be 2.1 trillion bbl, by following the line to P=0.
We have used half.
Kenneth Deffeyes, Beyond Oil (2005) p 43, world oil production
US oil production
Hubbert linearization Kenneth Deffeyes, Beyond Oil (2005) p 38, US oil production
What does Hubbert’s theory mean?
• The oil production rate depends linearly on the fraction of the total oil that remains to be produced.
• The same is true for any other finite resource.
The ease of catching fish depends mostly on how many fish remain in the pond.
Kenneth Deffeyes
So what is ‘Peak Oil’?
• It is the point when further expansion of oil production becomes impossible because: • New production flows are fully offset by production declines (depletion) • You never run out of oil • You do run out of incremental flows • The world depends on oil products to support growth Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review, ASPO 2005 Conference Denver
Roger H. Bezdek, ASPO-USA Boston 2006 There is much uncertainty about the size of global oil reserves and depletion rates.
World production forecasts Graph made by Khebab of The Oil Drum, http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/13/225447/79
World Production Stopped Increasing in late 2004 Stuart Staniford, ASPO USA Boston 2006 Source - IEA.
World production
as of February 2007 Peak Oil Update - February 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers Khebab, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2300
Roger H. Bezdek, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
Where is it?
http://transitionculture.org/ Regular Oil
Is it really there?
Middle East reserves “jumped” in the 1980’s, after OPEC established production quotas based on reserves.
• Middle East reserves may be overstated by 300 billion barrels (Salameh 2004) • Only 20% of increased reserves are genuine (Deffeyes 2005) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy
We import 66% of our oil
What are the top 4 countries from which the US imports oil?
US Crude Oil Imports 2004 (EIA) Ecuador 2% United Kingdom 2% Kuwait 2% Angola 3% Iraq 6% Rest 13% Canada 17% Mexico 16% Nigeria 11% Venezuela 13% Saudi Arabia 15% Canada Mexico Saudi Arabia Venezuela Nigeria Iraq Angola Kuwait United Kingdom Ecuador Rest
http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/rankings/crudebycountry.htm
US Four Main Suppliers
61% of imports, 40% of total
• Canada peaked in 1973 – Will rely increasingly on Alberta oil sands, which require natural gas to produce (natural gas peaked in 2001).
• Mexico peaked in 2004 – Cantarell, its largest oilfield, went into irreversible decline in 2006. Mexican imported oil to US dropped 16% in 2006.
• Saudi Arabia may be at peak now – When its largest field (Ghawar) peaks, KSA will peak (Matt Simmons, Simmons International, oil investment banker) • Venezuela – Producing more heavy crude each year (expensive to refine) – Nationalizing its energy industries
Living the Oil Age in an Irish pub
http://transitionculture.org/
1900 2000 2100
New York Times editorial March 1, 2006
“The concept of peak oil has not been widely written about. But people are talking about it now. It deserves a careful look—largely because it is almost certainly correct.”
Why does Peak Oil matter?
• 80-95% of all transport on the planet is fueled by oil products and transport accounts for 70% of oil use • All petrochemicals are produced from oil • 99% of all lubrication is done with oil products • 95% of all goods in our stores get there using oil • 99% of our food involves oil or gas for fertilizers, agrochemicals, tilling, cultivation and transport.
Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review, ASPO 2005 Conference Denver
Challenges to the food system
• Declining supply of fossil fuels • Fewer farmers – Only 1/7 of the human labor is required today as compared to 1900 (because of fossil fuels), therefore fewer people know how to farm.
• Water – Snowpack in the Sierras is declining, reducing CA irrigation water.
– Non-renewable aquifers are being depleted.
– Will bring pressure on other regions to compensate.
• • Climate instability – Droughts, floods and stronger storms due to climate change • Land and topsoil availability – Soil depletion and development pressures Decreasing genetic diversity of crops – Limits natural adaptability to the above stresses •
These problems are all related to one another. The common factor is availability of cheap energy.
Substitutes for conventional oil?
• Oil sands • Oil shale • Coal & CTL • Natural gas • Wind • Solar PV & thermal • Nuclear • Hydro • Biomass • Landfills All are important.
Together they will not deliver the flows required by current & future demand at reasonable price.
We must reduce demand through efficiency and using less.
How serious a problem is this?
Peaking of World Oil Production:
Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management
Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader
(commissioned by US Department of Energy, February 2005) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf
No single fuel can replace oil
“Oil has the greatest energy density of any fuel known to man, apart from nuclear. This means all alternatives are inferior.”
Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review
“Peak oil is a turning point in history of unparalleled magnitude, for never before has a resource as critical as oil become headed into decline from natural depletion without sight of a better substitute.”
Dr. Colin Campbell, renowned oil geologist
How should we face this?
• Collectively, Humanity is: • Very clever, very ingenious, very adaptable • So it is reasonable to be optimistic.
• It is reasonable to anticipate technical solutions we cannot currently envisage.
• But humanity is also greedy, competitive, short-sighted and tribal.
• Concern & apprehension are appropriate.
Chris Skrebowski, Editor Petroleum Review, ASPO 2005 Conference Denver
A Look at Climate Change
Why reducing fossil fuel use is essential now
Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Average temperatures from a range of IPCC energy scenarios short of deep cuts in fossil fuel use Threshold of severe danger: 2 o C above pre-industrial average temperature (EU target not to exceed)
Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
Moving south
Dr. Cameron Wake, University of NH, ASPO-USA Boston 2006 Union of Concerned Scientists, Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast
Natural Gas Resources
• U.S natural gas peaked in 2001.
• Drilling has doubled in 5 years.
• Production is declining.
J. David Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
Falling behind on the treadmill
If we stopped drilling gas wells, production would drop at 25% per year.
J. David Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
The gas we use is primarily from U.S. and Canada
J. David Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada, ASPO-USA Boston 2006
Source: ISO-NE
New England generates 29% of its electricity from natural gas
2003 New England Total Electric Generation by Energy Source, Percentage (%): ISO-NE Hydro 6% Interchange 4% Misc.
1% Wood/refuse 5% Oil 5% Oil/gas 10% Natural gas 29% Natural gas Nuclear Coal Oil/gas Hydro Oil Wood/refuse Interchange Coal/oil Misc.
Pumping load Coal 12% Nuclear 26%
Natural gas and fertilizer
• Natural gas is the feedstock for chemical fertilizers • Haber-Bosch process produces ammonium nitrate (fertilizer) from atmospheric nitrogen and the hydrogen in methane (natural gas) • As natural gas supply declines, the price of chemical fertilizers will increase • Organic fertilizers and farming methods must fill the growing deficiency.
Implications of peak oil and natural gas
• • •
Agriculture:
• 10 “petro calories” for each 1 food calorie on average • Average food item travels about 1,400 miles from origin to consumers.
• Transcontinental shipment of food may become cost prohibitive.
• Preserving quality agricultural land close to towns is vital
Transportation
: • All municipal functions dependent on fuel and transportation (fire, police, schools, etc.) will become more expensive. • Trains may replace trucks as preferred for transporting goods • Plan for walkable and bikeable communities.
Goods and Services:
• More will need to be produced locally and regionally. • Small-scale manufacturing, local craftsmen and small businesses will be the economic engine of the future.
Mark Archambault, Nashua River Watershed Assn.
Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil Awareness
(“Post Petroleum Stress Disorder”)
Common symptoms include:
Clammy palms / nausea A sense of bewilderment and unreality An irrational grasping at unfeasible solutions Fear Outbreaks of nihilism / survivalism Exuberant optimism “I always told you so” syndrome Rob Hopkins, TransitionCulture.org
Four Scenarios
Rob Hopkins, TransitionCulture.org
Climax (post-modern cultural chaos) Techno-Fantasy Green-Tech Stability Energy & Resource Use Population Pollution Earth stewardship Pre-industrial sustainable culture Historical Time
Agriculture 10.000yrs BP Industrial Revolution Baby Boom
Atlantis Great Grand Children Future Time Old Growth Forest
Creative Descent Option
Transition plan for towns • Energy Descent Action Plan – (Rob Hopkins, www.TransitionCulture.org
) – Develop a vision in 20 years time for what the town could be – Back-cast from that vision to see practical steps – Design a road map to incorporate those steps • Areas to consider – Food and water security – Health care system; physical and psychological health – Home heating – Employment – a more local ecomomy – Schools – what skills will our children need?
– Community – we’re in this together
Food Security
De-industrialization of agriculture is required • Every calorie of industrially produced food requires on average 10 calories of fossil fuel inputs.
– Agriculture accounts for about 17 percent of the U.S. annual energy budget.
– Agriculture is the single largest consumer of petroleum products as compared to other industries.
– The U.S. military uses only about half that amount.
• A radical reduction of fossil fuel inputs to agriculture is needed.
• An increase in labor inputs – Change thinking about physical work as degrading – Health clubs? Your workout is going to be on a farm (Dr. Vandana Shiva) • A reduction of transport, with production being devoted primarily to local consumption.
Richard Heinberg presentation to the E. F. Schumacher Society in Stockbridge, MA. 10/28/2006
Implications for
Dick Lawrence, ASPO Boston 2006
History and Future of Farms
Jefferson’s ideal agrarian democracy Tractors replace horses Pesticides & fertilizers Massive farm bankruptcies Peak Oil Community farms
Toward a Local Food System
• Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) – direct grower to buyer – Buyer pays same price for better food – Grower sells at retail instead of wholesale • Farmers’ Markets – Ready outlet for farmers – Reduce trips to supermarket & fuel costs – Builds community • Create a Mass Food Co-op – Statewide organic food buying cooperative – Could be patterned after the Oklahoma Food Coop (Bob Waldrop, www.OklahomaFood.coop)
Victory Gardens
• During WW II, people in the US, Canada and the UK planted Victory Gardens in back yards, empty lots and apartment rooftops, to ease pressure on food sources for the war effort.
• Nearly 20 million Americans planted victory gardens.
• Government encouraged home canning so that commercially canned products could be sent to the troops.
• The harvest provided about 40% of all vegetable produce consumed by the nation.
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Energy efficiency at home
KWHr/Day KWHr/Day We reduced electricity usage in our home 42% by: • 18 CFL bulbs, cost: $0 with free home energy audit • Clothes drying rack, cost: $20 • Turning off electronics, cost: $0
Are people ready for change?
Are people ready for change?
New American Drean - a
Public Opinion Poll conducted in July 2004 by Widmeyer Research & Polling, Takoma Park, MD 1,092 Americans 18 years of age and older • • • • • • • • • 87% think our current consumer culture makes it harder to instill positive values in our children.
81% think American society is too focused on shopping and spending.
91% believe that preserving and protecting the environment for future generations should be important in defining the American Dream.
74% said Americans cannot continue to use natural resources at current levels without negative consequences.
81% said that protecting the environment will require most of us to make major changes in the way we live.
71% said that our dependence on oil leads to conflicts and wars with other countries.
83% said the most effective way to deal with our dependence on oil was to conserve energy by using less and developing new energy efficient technologies.
83% say we need to rebuild our neighborhoods and small communities ( http://www.culturalcreatives.org/Library/docs/NewPoliticalCompassV73.pdf
)
Answer: Yes
http://www.newdream.org/about/PollResults.pdf
What Harvard Local is doing
•
The energy transition is a positive opportunity to rebuild vital, local communities and economies.
• Harvard Local supports and is doing work in the following areas: – Local foods – Energy efficiency and renewable energy strategies – Climate action – Re-localization of the economy – Youth projects – Working with other towns – Public education – Envisioning a healthier society after fossil fuels www.harvardlocal.org
What you can do
• Hone your gardening skills • Reduce your fossil fuel dependency • Get to know your neighbors
“The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them.” – Albert Einstein
Some resources
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www.EnergyBulletin.net
www.TheOilDrum.com
Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World; Richard Heinberg, 2004. The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies; Richard Heinberg, 2003. Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak; Kenneth S. Deffeyes, 2005. Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy; Matthew R. Simmons 2005.
Against the Grain: How Agriculture Has Hijacked Civilization; Richard Manning, 2004. The Omnivore's Dilemma: A Natural History of Four Meals; Michael Pollan, 2006. The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century; James Howard Kunstler, 2005. Petrodollar Warfare: Oil, Iraq and the Future of the Dollar; William R. Clark, 2005.
Radical Simplicity: Small Footprints on a Finite Earth; Jim Merkel, 2003.