Transcript Water in New Hampshire

Board of Directors
Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair
David Alukonis
William H. Dunlap
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
James Putnam
Measuring NH
in 2014
Stephen J. Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
A Visual Guide to the Year Ahead
Brian F. Walsh
Michael Whitney
January 2014
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
Todd I. Selig
Kimon S. Zachos
Directors Emeritus
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
Measuring 2014
The past year was full of weighty public policy debates in New
Hampshire: the passage of a new two-year state budget, debates
over legalized casino gambling and expanded Medicaid, and efforts
at developing a strategic economic plan for the state.
2014 shouldn’t be any less busy. The following seven charts provide
a selective overview of some of the issues that are sure to be part of
New Hampshire’s public policy conversations in the coming 12
months. As in recent years, the precise contours of these debates
are difficult to predict with clarity. But these charts scope out the
policy hot spots and should help generate discussion about the
issues likely to shape the state’s near future.
You’ll find lots more information on these topics at the Center’s
website – nhpolicy.org.
As population
growth slows…
New Hampshire Population Change Over Previous Year
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
71 973 975 977 979 981 983 985 987 989 991 993 995 997 999 001 003 005 007 009 011 013
19
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
New Hampshire continues to see very modest population growth coming out of the recession. If this
demographic trend continues, it will have big implications for the state’s economy, schools, and other
policy areas. If reversing this trend is a priority for policymakers, what steps can they take to address it?
…New Hampshire ages
NH Population Age 65 and Over:
Number (left scale) and Percent of Total (right scale)
500,000
100%
450,000
90%
400,000
80%
350,000
70%
300,000
60%
250,000
50%
200,000
40%
150,000
30%
100,000
20%
50,000
10%
0
0%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
65+ Pop
65+ Pop as a % of Total Pop
Continued slow in-migration will likely result in continued aging of the population. That trend – with
nearly a third of residents over age 65 by 2040 – will require changes in healthcare, housing,
transportation and other issues. Policymakers will begin laying the groundwork for that shift now.
An uncertain jobs picture
Index of Total NonFarm Employment
(Seasonally Adjusted)
101.0
100.0
US
NE
NH
Dec 2007 =100
99.0
New England
98.0
97.0
New Hampshire
96.0
95.0
94.0
United States
93.0
Ja
n
M -07
ay
Se -07
pJa 07
n
M -08
ay
Se -08
pJa 08
n
M -09
ay
Se -09
pJa 09
n
M -10
ay
Se -10
pJa 10
n
M -11
ay
Se -11
pJa 11
n
M -12
ay
Se -12
pJa 12
n
M -13
ay
Se -13
p13
92.0
2014 is expected to be the year that New Hampshire finally returns to the number of jobs it had
before the recession. Yet unemployment remains relatively high, and other states are seeing more
robust economic growth than New Hampshire. What steps are available to help return New
Hampshire to its traditional position near the front of the nation in job growth in 2014?
Projecting state revenues
NHCPPS Projection of 2014 Combined General Fund
& Education Trust Fund Revenues
(in millions of $)
Above (Below) Budget
$200
$100
$0
-$100
-$200
-$300
June
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
July
-$400
State revenues are expected to make a modest increase over 2013. Policymakers will
monitor those receipts through the coming months as an indicator of the state of the broader
economy. They will also decide what to do with a $76 million surplus from the previous fiscal
year: Restore recession-era spending cuts, or replenish the state’s reserve fund?
Medicaid expansion
Total Medicaid cases in NH, 2006-2013
Medicaid expansion will be a major topic of debate for the 2014 legislative session. While
enrollment in the program accelerated through the years of the Great Recession (20072010), total cases have been flat since that time. The decision of whether or not to
expand eligibility in 2014 will have a big impact on these figures in coming years.
Health care costs
still a concern
Average Family Health Insurance Premium
as % of Mean Family Income in New Hampshire
20%
18.2%
18%
16%
17.4%
16.9%
14%
15.4%
14.0%
12%
10%
10.2%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Year
While the rate of growth in healthcare costs in New Hampshire has abated somewhat, the issue
will continue to be a major topic of concern. The continued implementation of the Affordable Care
Act through 2014 will certainly bring about changes in healthcare costs and access, as well.
Common Core continues
Percent of students rated "at or above proficient"
on 2013 NAEP test
70
60
NH
US
50
40
30
20
10
0
4th Grade Reading
4th Grade Math
8th Grade Reading
8th Grade Math
As in most of the country, 2014 will see continued steps toward the implementation of the Common Core
standards at schools across New Hampshire. Granite State students typically score well above the
national average in standardized tests, but the Common Core will usher in a new set of assessments.
New Hampshire Center
for Public Policy Studies
Board of Directors
Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair
David Alukonis
William H. Dunlap
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
Richard Ober
James Putnam
Stephen J. Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Michael Whitney
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
Want to learn more?
• Online: nhpolicy.org
• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
• Our blog: policyblognh.org
• (603) 226-2500
Todd I. Selig
Kimon S. Zachos
Directors Emeritus
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”