Transcript Water in New Hampshire - Lakes Region Planning Comm

Board of Directors
Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair
David Alukonis
William H. Dunlap
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
Richard Ober
James Putnam
Stephen J. Reno
Searching for an
Economic
Recovery
Lakes Region Planning Commission
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Monday, September 30, 2013
Michael Whitney
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
Todd I. Selig
Kimon S. Zachos
Directors Emeritus
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
What is New Hampshire
Labor Markets
Hospital Service
Areas
Tourist Regions
Watersheds
Housing Markets
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Lakes Region has about
10% of NH residents
Population 2011
295,221
261,249
226,293
134,976
93,999
28,950
51,174
Merrimack Valley Region
If you live in the Lakes
Region, you work here.
% of workers commuting to out of state jobs
30.7%
19.1%
13.3%
13.1%
9.5%
7.0%
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Lakes Region relies on
Manufacturing
Manufacturing as a share of all Wages (2011)
27.5%
25.0%
18.3%
14.7%
12.3%
8.5%
5.0%
0.0%
Lakes Region also relies on
Tourism
Accomodation and Food Services as a share of all Wages (2011)
12.0%
10.1%
10.0%
8.0%
6.4%
5.9%
6.0%
4.0%
3.5%
2.8%
2.6%
3.1%
2.6%
2.3%
2.2%
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Lakes Region is 2nd in %
Seasonal Homes
Seasonal Homes as % of Total
36.8%
30.9%
22.9%
11.9%
9.0%
6.0%
0.8%
1.2%
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Lakes Region Highest
Property Value per Capita
2012 Property Value per Person
$182,650
$164,556
$126,414
$111,021
$92,598
$71,971
Above NH average Property
Crime in Lakes Region
Property Crime Rate in Largest Town/City
4,683.2
4,127.2
3,822.9
3,459.9
3,380.2
3,350.0
3,012.8
2,459.4
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Lakes Region Educational
Attainment close to average
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
37.6%
35.0%
31.4%
28.4%
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Lakes Region Social Need
is Above State Average
Percent of persons in Poverty (2007-2011)
13.7%
10.6%
8.1%
5.1%
The Geography of Need
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Percentage of the Population
with a BA or better
2010 Median HH Income
Poverty Rate
Households with Food
Stamps
Medicaid Members as a %
per Pop
Low to Moderate Income Pct
Elementary Per Pupil
Expenditures 2009/10
2011 Actual Property Tax
Rate
Voter Participation (%) in the
Last Election
Poverty Under 18
Poverty 65 plus
2011 High School graduation
rate
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Lakes Region Incomes
Average Household Income (2007-2011)
$94,960
$84,879
$73,166
$61,736
$50,818
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Lakes Region Wages
Average Weekly Wage (2011)
$1,089.00
$981.02
$845.89
$918.46
$779.66
$698.50
$620.31
Anecdotal evidence from the Fed
Bank of Boston, July 17, 2013
• Economic activity in New England continues to expand at a
moderate pace, according to business contacts.
• Retailers, tourism contacts, manufacturers and consulting and
advertising contacts all report modest increases in sales.
• Commercial real estate conditions are improving or holding
steady, depending on location.
• Residential real estate contacts report increases in both house
prices and sales.
• Overall prices are rising at a modest pace, generally in line with
cost increases.
• Most businesses are holding employment steady, with substantial
staffing changes only at firms experiencing significant increases
or decreases in sales.
• Contacts generally expect the recent trend of moderate growth to
continue.
Calculated Risk has the clearest
picture of the problem we face:
NH – Less of a decline,
but a slower recovery
Index of Total NonFarm Employment
(Seasonally Adjusted)
101.0
100.0
New England
New Hampshire
98.0
97.0
96.0
95.0
94.0
United States
93.0
92.0
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99.0
US
NE
NH
Migration slowed in last
decade
Net Migration Into and Out of New Hampshire
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
20
11
20
09
20
07
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
19
75
19
73
19
71
-20,000
A Few Thoughts on
Demographics = Destiny
Growth in the past driven by
high rates of migration.
Percent Change in NH Population
30.0%
24.8%
25.0%
21.5%
20.5%
20.0%
13.8%
15.0%
10.0%
11.4%
8.5%
6.9%
5.0%
0.0%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data
U.S. Census figures released in December show that the 2000s saw the slowest rate of
population growth in New Hampshire in six decades. Later this year, the Census Bureau will
release specific population figures for counties and communities. What will those numbers tell
us about the state’s demographic patterns over the past decade?
NH Population forecasts revised
down
Total NH Population
New Hampshire Population Forecasts
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
OEP11/06
800,000
RPC05/13
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
NH Population forecasts revised
down, especially for 0-19 yr olds
NH School Age Population
New Hampshire School Age (0 to 19) Population Forecasts
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
OEP11/06
200,000
RPC05/13
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
The new 60? Significant future
growth of the population 75 - 79
Change in the NH Population Over the Age of 65 - 2010 to 2030
60,000
50,000
55,911
46,572
43,012
40,000
29,437
30,000
21,464
20,000
10,000
0
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 84
85 +
23
Declining Number of Teens
and Twenty Year Olds
New Hampshire Population Age Group 15 to 29
300,000
Actual
Forecast
2010
2020
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2030
2040
And Spending Patterns
Change with Age Too.
New Hampshire Population by Selected Age Groups
600,000
Actual
Forecast
2010
2020
Number of Residents
500,000
Wealth Creation Crowd
400,000
300,000
200,000
Wealth Preservation Crowd
100,000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
25 to 49
50 to 74
2030
2040
Younger groups less likely
to form a household
Headship Ratios - Census Years
Belknap County, NH
0.80
1990
0.70
2000
0.60
2010
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
15 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 to 74
75 years
and over
Total
Younger groups less likely
to be home owners
Home Ownership - Census Years
Belknap County, NH
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
1990
2000
2010
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
15 to 24
years
25 to 34
years
35 to 44
years
45 to 54
years
55 to 64
years
65 to 74
years
75 years
and over
Total
The increase in the Senior
Population in the Lakes
Population by Age Group
Lakes Region Planning Commission
25,000
History 2010 Base Year
2025
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Under 15
15 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 to 74
75 to 84
85 & older
Means a change in age by
Ownership
Owner Households
Lakes Region Planning Commission
30,000
History 2010 Base Year
2025
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Under Age 65
65 & Older
And also a change in
rental demand
Renter Households
Lakes Region Planning Commission
10,000
History 2010 Base Year
2025
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Under Age 65
65 & Older
In this context, what should
we invest in?
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Human Capital
Economic Creativity
Business Base
Costs of Business?
Infrastructure?
Quality of Life?
NH Rank in Public Policy
Indicators
WA
MT
ME
ND
ID
OR
MN
WI
SD
VT
NH
NY
MA
CTRI
MI
WY
PA
IA
NE
OH
UT
NV
CA
IL
CO
KS
IN
KY
NC
TN
AZ
OK
NM
AR
SC
MS
HI
TX
MD DE
WV
VA
MO
AL
GA
LA
FL
AK
Public Policy Dashboard 2013
Overall Ranking
#1 is Best
1 to 10
11 to 25
26 to 40
41 to 50
NJ
Public Policy Indicators
Compared to Neighbor and
Competitor States
State and Rank
New Hampshire
Educations
and
Fiscal Workforce Regulatory
17
14
22
Cultural
Business
Workforce and Natural
Growth and
Housing Resources Energy Infrastructure Health
Retention Overall
31
2
28
27
20
7
8
Maine
Massachusetts
Vermont
31
37
35
36
1
32
42
41
31
29
41
32
10
1
7
35
20
24
33
35
43
49
16
22
31
2
11
39
5
26
North Carolina
South Carolina
Texas
Virginia
33
28
8
11
11
29
16
4
14
17
28
20
25
15
21
35
16
36
45
9
13
33
41
27
18
12
10
15
30
47
38
9
27
30
23
29
15
31
25
4
NH Excels on Current
Climate Indicators
NH Economic Dashboard 2013
Area
WFHousing
Regulatory
Cultural
EdWorkFrc
Cultural
EdWorkFrc
EdWorkFrc
EdWorkFrc
Fiscal
Fiscal
Indicator
Homeownership rates
Pollution Abatement / $ Value Added
Percent of tree cover urban areas
High School grad rate
Voter turnout rate
Pct of pop in Science & Engineering workforce
Pct w/Associates+
Percent of children aged 3-4 in preschool
State Business Tax Climate Index
Public health/welfare spending per person in poverty
NH Rank - Top Ten Out of 50 Indicators
NH Rank
2
3
3
4
4
5
6
6
7
7
But NH Lags on Future
Climate Indicators
NH Economic Dashboard 2013
Area
Fiscal
Infrastructure
WFHousing
Health
Fiscal
Energy
GrowthReten
Regulatory
EdWorkFrc
EdWorkFrc
Indicator
NH Rank
Top marginal corporate tax rate
38
Percent of bridges deficient or obsolete
39
Owner costs more than 30% of Income
43
Health Care Expenditures per Capita by State of Residence, 2009
43
State debt per $ Personal Income
45
Industrial Electric Prices
46
Capital Investment Projects per 100,000 pop
46
Land Use Restriction
47
Change in 35-44 y.o share of population, 2000 to 2010
48
Average student debt
50
NH Rank - Bottom Ten Out of 50 Indicators
A Full Proof Economic Indicator
New Hampshire Boat Registrations and Payroll Employment (000's)
105000
700
100000
650
95000
90000
600
85000
550
80000
75000
500
70000
450
65000
400
19
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9
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20 0
0
20 1
0
20 2
0
20 3
0
20 4
0
20 5
0
20 6
0
20 7
0
20 8
0
20 9
1
20 0
1
20 1
12
60000
NH Boat Registrations
NH Payroll Employment
New Hampshire Center
for Public Policy Studies
Board of Directors
Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair
David Alukonis
William H. Dunlap
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
Richard Ober
James Putnam
Stephen J. Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Michael Whitney
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
Want to learn more?
• Online: nhpolicy.org
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• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
• Our blog: policyblognh.org
• (603) 226-2500
Todd I. Selig
Kimon S. Zachos
Directors Emeritus
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”