Transcript Water in New Hampshire

Board of Directors
William H. Dunlap, Chair
David Alukonis
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
James Putnam
The Changing
Demographics of Freedom
and Carroll County
Todd I. Selig
Michael Whitney
Daniel Wolf
Freedom Planning Board Public Meeting
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
Directors Emeritus
Sheila T. Francoeur
Sunday, July 13, 2014
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Kimon S. Zachos
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
Freedom is one of the “older”
towns in New Hampshire
• Freedom’s median age
is 53.1 years
• Of the 244 towns and
cities in NH, Freedom
is one of 26 with a
median age of greater
than 50 years.
• Median age state wide
is 37.2 years
Source: 2010 census
Carroll County Population over 65
years old is forecast to increase
from 25% to 35% by 2025
Source: Census and NH OEP forecast
Freedom’s population skews
much older than the US and NH
Source: US Census Bureau
Outmigration has contributed to
these age group patterns
Net Migration Into and Out of New Hampshire
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
Source: US Census Bureau
20
11
20
09
20
07
20
05
20
03
20
01
19
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
19
75
19
73
19
71
-20,000
Future NH Population growth
anticipated to be slower
Ten Year Percent Change in New Hampshire Population by Decade End
Actual
Forecast
24.8%
21.5%
20.5%
13.8%
11.4%
8.5%
6.5%
3.3%
3.8%
1.1%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: Census and NH OEP forecast
2020
2030
2040
Economics
NH Grew Slower than US in
last decade
Source: Daniel Lee, Plymouth State University
Carroll County 40 year share of state
economic growth is steady at 3%
Source: Daniel Lee, Plymouth State University
The outlook is generally
improving, but problems remain
• Business activity: year-over-year increases in New England, but
performance varies across sectors.
– Manufacturers and tourism: contacts note strong results
– Software and IT services firms cite strengthening sales
– staffing services respondents indicate activity has picked up
recently, while retail reports are somewhat mixed.
• Hiring:
– Some firms note that jobs in selected occupations remain
difficult to fill.
– Outlooks remain quite positive, but not sufficiently positive to
result in plans for increased hiring.
• Single-family home sales and prices: declined year-over-year in
March in four of the six New England states.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, June 4, 2014
Manufacturing, construction and
financial activities have not
recovered, government shrinks
Change in New Hampshire Jobs
5,400
6,600
3,100
3,000
900
400
-900
-1,900
-3,600
-5,000
G
ov
er
nm
en
ity
ta
l
&
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is
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ea
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&
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os
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of
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ic
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rv
rv
Se
tiv
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nc
na
s
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ic
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iti
es
n
tio
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Fi
Source: NH Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau
t
Dec 07 to Dec10
Dec 10 to Dec 13
-7,700
ns
Tr
a
&
e
ad
Tr
5,400
po
st
on
C
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an
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ac
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r
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n
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
0
-500
-2,000
-4,000
-6,000
-4,900
-8,000
-10,000
-12,000 -11,200
-14,000
2011-2012 job growth is dominated
by below average wage jobs
Source: NH Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau
Working Age Population Will Decline
significantly in Carroll County
Change in Working Age Population (Age 20 to 64)
2010 to 2020 2010 to 2030
United States
3.4%
1.0%
New Hampshire
-1.6%
-7.3%
Strafford
Hillsborough
Rockingham
Sullivan
Merrimack
Belknap
Cheshire
Grafton
Carroll
Coos
0.9%
0.0%
0.5%
-2.2%
-2.7%
-3.6%
-4.8%
-7.5%
-5.3%
-11.5%
-2.9%
-5.2%
-5.6%
-5.9%
-8.6%
-9.2%
-10.9%
-13.7%
-14.2%
-25.6%
13
Source: NH OEP forecast
Income per Household in
Freedom declining
Adjusted Gross Income in zip 03836
$70,000
$64,314
$60,271
$60,000
$53,992
$51,554
$50,000
$46,244
$48,413
$46,259
$53,607 $54,542
$48,071
$44,584
$42,121
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: IRS statistics by zip code
14
Increase in Freedom EITC filings
Earned Income Tax Credit Filings in zip 03836
120
101
100
96
93
80
40
2007
2008
53
50
42
69
60
58
60
67
41
39
20
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: IRS statistics by zip code
2006
2009
2010
2011
15
Freedom property tax base
is shrinking
Freedom, NH Equalized Value w/o Utilities
$ 600,000,000
$ 500,000,000
$ 400,000,000
$ 300,000,000
$ 200,000,000
$ 100,000,000
$0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: NH Dept of Revenue Administration
16
Freedom property tax base
recovery lagging NH average
Index of Equalized Property Values (2008=100)
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
Freedom Town
State Average
80.0
75.0
70.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: NH Dept of Revenue Administration
2012
2013
17
Housing
NH Real Estate Has
Finally Hit Bottom
NH Single-Family Residential Home Sales and Price (MLS)
Source: NH Association of REALTORS
25,000
20,000
Decline from the Peak:
Sales -40% from 2004
Price -25% from 2005
$300,000
Median Home Price
$250,000
$200,000
15,000
Number of Units Sold
$150,000
10,000
$100,000
5,000
$50,000
0
$0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Units sold
Median Price
2013 YTD thru December
19
Carroll County
Recovery in Carroll County
mirrors state real estate recovery
$240,000
1,600
$230,000
1,400
$220,000
1,200
$210,000
1,000
$200,000
800
$190,000
600
$180,000
$170,000
400
$160,000
200
$150,000
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Median Price
Source: NH Housing Finance analysis
Number Sold
Number Sold
Median Sold Price
MLS Residential Property Sales By Year
Freedom’s portion of “second
homes” has been shrinking, but
still higher than NH/county.
Seasonal Homes as a Percent of Area Housing Stock
70
65.5
60
54.9
54.8
52.3
50
42.8
42.2
40
30
20
11.3
10.4
10.3
10
0
1990
2000
NH
Carroll County
2010
Freedom Town
Source: New Hampshire Census reports
21
Carroll County Rents Rise and
Vacancies Fall
Carroll County
Median Gross Apartment Rent
Rents have risen to
$1,000 and vacancy
has dropped to 5%
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
Carroll County
$0
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
Apartment Vacancy Rates
All units
2 BDR
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
Source: NH Housing Finance
Residential Surveys
All units
2 BDR
Mismatch With the Inventory—Small
Households, Large Units—Downsizing to
What?
Bedroom Count in Owner
Occupied Units
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Average Bedrooms = 2.64
Source: Big Homes, Small Households, NH Center on Policy studies
Average HH size = 2.46
23
Supply of Housing Stock
doesn’t fit Demand
• Baby Boomers want to downsize and live on a
single floor to “age in place.”
– They need to sell their larger homes to do so.
• Younger households, burdened with student loans
and with lower wage jobs, are less able to qualify
under tighter bank standards to buy.
– They are looking for non-conventional alternatives,
like co-ownership and “doubling up.”
• Younger households are not providing the liquidity
for older seller to “move up” or “down size.”
Source: Big Houses, Small Households: Perceptions, Preferences and Assessment, NH Center for Policy Studies
24
The Holy Grail: A
Small Home
• Both Baby Boomers and young households are
looking for a small ranch or cape style house on
one level:
– But the Baby Boomers may not be able to sell
their larger home to have the cash to buy
– Young households may not be able to afford
the purchase price.
• In many towns, housing stock of larger homes
and zoning regulations make the cost of housing
too high for young people.
25
Source: Current Population Survey Mobility Estimates
.8
0
.7
5
.7
0
.6
5
.6
2
.6
0
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5
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0
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5
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0
.3
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.3
0
.2
5
.2
0
.1
8
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84
79
74
69
64
61
59
54
49
44
39
34
29
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Most Seniors Do Age In
Place
Northeast US Annual Mobility by Age, 2012 to 2013
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
26
What seniors need to age in
place does not match supply
Need to Age in Place:
Supply Available:
• Low maintenance, smaller,
efficient units
• First floor bedroom and bath
• No stairs into unit
• Wider entry and bathroom doors
• Adapted bathrooms and
kitchens
• Higher electrical outlets
• Levers, not knobs
• Access to public transportation
27
Too few potential in home care
workers available to support aging
in place
NH Residents Age 85 and Older per 100 Women Age 25 to 44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Belknap
Carroll
Cheshire
Coos
Grafton
Hillsborough
2010
2030
Merrimack
Rockingham
Strafford
Sullivan
28
Source: Census and NH OEP forecast
NH’s Changing Environment Has
Consequences
Environment
• New Hampshire’s population
growth is slowing down
• Job quality is poor
• Elders will be increasingly
larger share of owners and
renters
• Young home buyers are
challenged
• Recent trend away from
ownership and towards rental
• Different problems in different
regions
• General public, town officials
and business are not aware of
issues affecting NH’s housing
Consequences
• Fewer new households, and
fewer families
• Overpayment problems for low
income renters
• Elder overpayment, and Elders
not aware of options available
• Future home owners not aware
of ownership pitfalls and
advantages
• Multi-family production
shortages
• Geographic diversity more
important than urban core.
• Town officials not comfortable
changing existing regulations.
29
Source: Big Homes, Small Households, NH Center on Policy studies
New Hampshire Center
for Public Policy Studies
Board of Directors
William H. Dunlap, Chair
David Alukonis
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
James Putnam
Todd I. Selig
Michael Whitney
Daniel Wolf
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
Directors Emeritus
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Want to learn more?
• Online: nhpolicy.org
• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
• Our blog: policyblognh.org
• (603) 226-2500
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Kimon S. Zachos
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”