Transcript Water in New Hampshire

Board of Directors
William H. Dunlap, Chair
David Alukonis
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
James Putnam
Understanding
Boundaries
Stephen J. Reno
Todd I. Selig
Michael Whitney
Leadership Seacoast retreat
Daniel Wolf
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
Directors Emeritus
January 8, 2014
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Kimon S. Zachos
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
Three trends
Growth
Percent Change in NH Population
30.0%
24.8%
25.0%
21.5%
20.5%
20.0%
13.8%
15.0%
11.4%
10.0%
8.5%
6.9%
5.0%
0.0%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data
2000
2010
Coming and going
Net Migration Into and Out of New Hampshire
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35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
-20,000
Demographics has shaped New Hampshire’s destiny over the past four decades. Over that
time, tens of thousands more people moved to the state than left. That population growth
resulted in higher education levels, increases in average personal income and higher
productivity for the state economy. But that trend has reversed itself in recent years (See pink
circle. Data for 2012 is not yet available.) What steps can policymakers take in 2013 to address
this slow-down in economic and population growth? Or is such growth even desirable?
Aging
New Hampshire began the 20th Century with the majority of its population under the age of 30 and relatively few
aged 60 and older. Watch how that shifts through the decades. Look out especially for the bump that arrives in
the 1950 Census – the Baby Boom Generation – and see how they dominate the subsequent decades. (When
you’ve watched the entire cycle, through 2010, press the down arrow key to continue the presentation.)
Politics
The Left
Has Anything Changed?
?
The Right
The NH Legislature in 2009
2009 New Hampshire General Court
224
176
Republicans
NH House
400
Members
Democrats
2009 New Hampshire Senate
14
10
Republicans
NH Senate
24
Members
Democrats
The Legislature Clearly
Changed
2011 New Hampshire General Court
2011 New Hampshire Senate
19
298
102
Republicans
NH House
400
Members
Democrats
5
Democrats
Republicans
NH Senate
24 Members
And Changed Again
2013 New Hampshire General Court
221
179
Republicans
NH House
400
Members
Democrats
2013 New Hampshire Senate
13
11
Democrats
Republicans
NH Senate
24 Members
1984
Voting
Patterns
Change
2012
What do these swings
really mean?
Agenda: What is the
Seacoast?
• Hope you walk away with
– A better understanding of ‘the Seacoast’
– An understanding of the Seacoast as compared to the
rest of the state
– A grounding in the major policy issues you will be
asked to take a leadership role on in the future
• Justice, Education, Arts and Culture, Economic
Development, Environment, Government
– An understanding of the tension between regional
and local issues and policies
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Here’s a basic overview of New
Hampshire’s population according to the
Census data from 2010. Not many
surprises here.
The most densely populated areas are in
the state’s southern areas, particularly
Rockingham, Hillsborough and Merrimack
counties.
The highest population centers are in and
around Manchester and Nashua, with
pockets of density scattered in the cities.
The North Country remains sparsely
populated.
Total state population increased 6.5
percent since 2000, with 1.3 million
people now calling New Hampshire home.
But let’s look at how that population has
shifted over the past decade…..
15
Pictionary – Draw the
Seacoast
• 5 School Administrative Units
• 4 Highways
• 3 Economic Development Hubs
• 3 Hospitals
• 1 Mental Health Center
• 1 Community Health Center
• 1 University
What Is
the
Seacoast?
Labor Markets
Hospital Service
Areas
Tourist Regions
Watersheds
Housing Markets
Seacoast Tourism Area
Atkinson
Barrington
Brentwood
Danville
Dover
Durham
East Kingston
Epping
Exeter
Farmington
Fremont
Greenland
Hampstead
Hampton
Hampton Falls
Kensington
Kingston
Lee
Madbury
Milton
New Castle
Newfields
Newington
Newmarket
Newton
North Hampton
Plaistow
Portsmouth
Rochester
Rollinsford
Rye
Sandown
Seabrook
Somersworth
South Hampton
Strafford
Stratham
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Large Part of the State
Population 2010
279,978
264,833
207,177
104,287
118,111
51,092
27,642
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How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7
655.9
378.6
187.6
112.7
28.1
Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)
$68,370
$66,789
$65,231
$52,897
$54,781
$55,237
$56,329
Greater
Concord
Greater
Manchester
$43,106
$31,358
Great North
Woods
White
Mountains
Region
Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region
Monadnock
Region
Seacoast
Region
Greater Nashua
Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%
35.1%
33.2%
30.5%
25.6%
30.4%
26.0%
14.4%
Great North
Woods
White
Mountains
Region
Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region
Monadnock
Region
Seacoast
Region
Greater
Concord
Greater
Manchester
Greater Nashua
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This map details where the growth
and loss in population, town by
town, occurred since 2000.
Some obvious points: the biggest
increases came in Hillsborough and
Rockingham counties. We can also
see the influence that Interstate 93
has on population growth over the
past decade.
Other pockets of large increase: the
Conway and Plymouth regions, the
Lakes Region and the Upper Valley.
We’ll return to those later.
And while nearly every region saw
some increase in population, the
declines were focused largely on
the North Country.
Education
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But while the overall state population
increased, the number of school-aged
children fell: a loss of more than 22,000
students, or a 7 percent decline since
2000.
As this map shows, that drop was
spread across the state, with a few
towns gaining in school-age population.
But flip back to the previous map. You’ll
see that many of the areas that had the
biggest gains in total population saw a
decline in their school-aged numbers:
portions Hillsborough County and the
Rochester area, for instance. How might
that trend shape discussions about
education spending, both at the state
and local level?
More broadly, policymakers will have to
consider what steps to take to build the
education system in a state where the
student population is declining.
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Natives?
Population Born in another state (%)
58.1%
52.8%
55.7%
45.4%
33.2%
Merrimack Valley Region
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Transportation: Where do
people work?
% of workers commuting to out of state jobs
26.1%
20.5%
13.9%
9.2%
7.1%
4.4%
Merrimack Valley Region
A Dynamic
System
Coughlin et. Al. “Demographics, Destiny, and Anticipating the Future of the Transportation System.
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Manufacturing as a share of all Wages (2010)
30.0%
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25.0%
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18.6%
13.8%
9.1%
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Government, Healthcare
and Manufacturing –
Seacoast Region
Compensation by Major Industry - Seacoast Region
16.0%
4.0%
2.0%
14.6%
14.0%
12.4%
12.0%
6.0%
12.2%
10.4%
10.0%
9.6%
8.0%
7.7%
5.8%
5.3%
3.6%
3.5%
1.3%
3.0%
1.1%
3.5%
1.5%
0.9%
1.9%
0.0%
Water is not
a local issue
Ground Water Systems
Analysis
Studies Looking at Needs/
Demand
Wright and Pierce. 1011. “Drinking Water Infrastructure in New Hampshire:
A Capital Investment Needs Analysis”
Healthcare is local
but …. ?
New Hampshire Hospitals
30 Minute Drive Time
Watch NH’s Population
Change
New Hampshire began the 20th Century with the majority of its population under the age of 30 and relatively few
aged 60 and older. Watch how that shifts through the decades. Look out especially for the bump that arrives in
the 1950 Census – the Baby Boom Generation – and see how they dominate the subsequent decades. (When
you’ve watched the entire cycle, through 2010, press the down arrow key to continue the presentation.)
•
•
•
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•
The most recent Census numbers help
paint a more detailed portrait of New
Hampshire’s demographic patterns. In
this map, the darker the shade of the
community, the older the median age of
its residents. (The statewide median age
was 41.1 years in 2010, up from 37.1 in
2000.)
We see here that New Hampshire can
essentially be divided into two regions
when it comes to age: an older northern
half, and a younger southern half.
But even in the “younger” half, there is a
further subdivision, with the eastern
region – between Interstate 93 and the
Seacoast -- significantly younger
than the western portion.
How might those divisions shape future
policy discussions related to health care,
education and public spending?
(White areas of the map are unincorporated areas for which the
Census Bureau did not release information.)
38
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This map plots the oldest segment
of the population – those aged 85
and older – town by town.
(Statewide, 1.9 percent of New
Hampshire’s population was 85 or
older in 2010.)
The darker communities, those with
a higher share of elderly residents,
will face additional challenges in
caring for that population. And as
New Hampshire ages faster than
the nation as a whole, these
communities will pave the way for
the kinds of changes likely facing
the rest of the state in coming years.
An older population requires a
different mix of social, health care,
housing, transportation and other
services. How can New Hampshire
best prepare for those needs?
What do Baby Boomers
Want? Zoning
US Economy
Alternative Scenarios
• Stronger Near Term Rebound – Jobs and
housing grow more than expected (10%
probability)
• Slower Near Term – US business
confidence drops due to Washington
Gridlock & Europe recession worsens (25%
probability)
Source: Moody’s Analytics, August 2013
Page 41
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Rochester-Dover
Index of Total NonFarm Employment
101.0
100.0
99.0
97.0
United States
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New Hampshire
96.0
95.0
94.0
Rochester-Dover
93.0
92.0
US
NH
Rochester-Dover
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105.0
103.0
Portsmouth
101.0
New Hampshire
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95.0
United States
93.0
US
NH
Portsmouth
In this context,
where should we invest?
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Health Care
Education/Workforce
Natural and Cultural Resources
Energy
Fiscal
Infrastructure
Workforce Housing
Regulatory
Business Growth and Retention
44
Public Policy Indicators Compared
to Neighbor and Competitor
States
State and Rank
New Hampshire
Educations
and
Fiscal Workforce Regulatory
17
14
22
Cultural
Business
Workforce and Natural
Growth and
Housing Resources Energy Infrastructure Health
Retention Overall
31
17
28
27
20
7
13
Maine
Massachusetts
Vermont
31
37
35
36
1
32
42
41
31
29
41
32
12
24
16
35
20
24
33
35
43
49
16
22
31
2
11
40
14
29
North Carolina
South Carolina
Texas
Virginia
33
28
8
11
11
29
16
4
14
17
28
20
25
15
21
35
26
39
48
19
13
33
41
27
18
12
10
15
30
47
38
9
27
30
23
29
17
31
25
9
Overall Business Ranking
Human Capital Ranking
Workforce Housing
Ranking
NH Excels on Current
Climate Indicators
Area
WFHousing
Regulatory
EdWorkFrc
Cultural
EdWorkFrc
EdWorkFrc
EdWorkFrc
Fiscal
Fiscal
GrowthReten
Indicator
Homeownership rates
Pollution Abatement / $ Value Added
High School grad rate
Voter turnout rate
Pct of pop in Science & Engineering workforce
Pct w/Associates+
Percent of children aged 3-4 in preschool
State Business Tax Climate Index
Public health/welfare spending per person in poverty
Manufacturing Supercluster Concentration (LQ)
NH Rank
2
3
4
4
5
6
6
7
7
7
But NH Lags on Future
Climate Indicators
Area
Fiscal
Infrastructure
WFHousing
Health
Fiscal
Energy
GrowthReten
Regulatory
EdWorkFrc
EdWorkFrc
Indicator
NH Rank
Top marginal corporate tax rate
38
Percent of bridges deficient or obsolete
39
Owner costs more than 30% of Income
43
Health Care Expenditures per Capita by State of Residence, 2009
43
State debt per $ Personal Income
45
Industrial Electric Prices
46
Capital Investment Projects per 100,000 pop
46
Land Use Restriction
47
Change in 35-44 y.o share of population, 2000 to 2010
48
Average student debt
50
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A Comment on Regions
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
37.6%
35.0%
31.4%
28.4%
14.7%
Looking forward: The ecology of
a successful economy
There’s this …
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Human Capital
Financial Capital
Economic Creativity
Business Base
Costs of Business
Infrastructure
Quality of Life
And then … Brad Feld
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A Strong Pool of Tech Founders
Local Capital
Killer Events
Access to Great Universities
Motivated ‘Champions’
Local Press, Organizational Tools
Alumni Outreach
Wins
Recycled Capital
Second-Time Entrepreneurs
Attractive to Engineers
Tent-pole local tech companies
52
How does this relate to
existing initiatives
• Many initiatives designed to deal with perceived long term
issues.
– Governor Hassan: Innovate NH Jobs
– Former Governor Lynch: The green launching pad
– New use of unemployment funds – train individuals to build new small
businesses.
– Community College System
• Hypertherm and Community College collaboration
• The Advanced Manufacturing Partnership (Albany)
– UNH Innovation
– UNH, STEM initiatives (NHCF, Business NH coalition)
– Granite State Futures – planning generally – housing and transportation.
– Stay, Work, Play.
• Question: Are they working? Is there a problem?
– Are conditions getting better/worse?
– What about regional approaches
53
Can you name 5 institutions
which help support
informed public policy
decisions in the Seacoast
Region?
New Hampshire Center
for Public Policy Studies
Board of Directors
William H. Dunlap, Chair
David Alukonis
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
James Putnam
Stephen J. Reno
Todd I. Selig
Michael Whitney
Daniel Wolf
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
Directors Emeritus
Sheila T. Francoeur
Want to learn more?
• Online: nhpolicy.org
• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
• Our blog: policyblognh.org
• (603) 226-2500
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Kimon S. Zachos
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”