Transcript Vehicle to Grid Power Analysis Seminar NREL, Washington

Vehicle to Grid Power
Analysis Seminar
NREL, Washington, DC
28 September 2005
Willett Kempton
University of Delaware
Four Big Problems
Global climate change. Evidence in the past two
years suggest far more risk than before.
Peak oil production; demand from China and India
soaring; $200B/year in Middle East wars.
US economy extraordinarily vulnerable to external
supply and distant politics.
Renewable energy plentiful and now cheap, limited
by intermittent supply.
An Unexpected
Synergy
It may be easier to solve all of these
problems at once than one at a time.
Vehicle to Grid power (“V2G”) as a bridging
technology.
Vehicle to Grid
Arrows indicate direction of power flow
V2G Basic Math
Average car driven 1 hour/day --> time
parked is 23 hours/day
Daily average travel: 32 miles
Practical power draw from car: 10 - 20 kW
US power generation=811 GW; load=417 GW
US 191 million cars x 15 kW = 2,865 GW
How Much Power?
Denmark
UK
USA
Avg. Electric
Load (GW)
3.6
40
417
Light vehicles
(106)
1.9
28.5
191
29
427
2,865
Vehicle GW
(if electric drive
@ 15 kW each)
How Much Power?
Denmark
UK
USA
Avg. Electric
Load (GW)
3.6
40
417
Light vehicles
(106)
1.9
28.5
191
29
427
2,865
Vehicle GW
(if electric drive
@ 15 kW each)
... power in cars >> generation or load
Which vehicles will be
available first?
Fuel cell?
Plug-in hybrid?
Battery?
(all work for V2G, distinct advantages for each)
Fuel Cell Vehicle: Honda FCX
NRC Review of H2
"Since using hydrogen as a transportation fuel
would necessitate several significant
breakthroughs, other alternatives to achieve the
program goals should be explored and additional
research supported if such alternatives show
comparable prospects for success. The committee
suggests that high-energy batteries for pure
battery electric vehicles might be such an
alternative. "
From: Executive Summary, “Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR
and Fuel Partnership”, National Research Council, draft, August 2005, page ES-5
(www.nap.edu/execsumm_pdf/11406.pdf)
Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle: DaimlerChrysler Sprinter
Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle: DaimlerChrysler Sprinter
Revolution in Battery
Technology
Today’s automotive starter batteries: Leadacid
RAV4 EV (and Toyota Prius hybrid battery):
Nickel Metal-hydride
New batteries based on Lithium, Li-ion or
Li-polymer: 5x lighter for same energy!
These advances make possible large battery
storage for vehicles.
Which atom would you schlep?
Which atom would you schlep?
Pb=207.2
Ni=58.9
Li=6.9
So, what can you do
with these batteries?
Venturi Fetish
58 kWh Li-ion
180 kW
400 km range
standard:
WiMax 802.16
2 Intel chips
Oracle 10G
iPod
V2G
0-100 km/h in 4.5 sec, max 170 km/h
19 Sep 05 press release:
http://www.internetnews.com/ent-news/article.php/3549956
Mitsubishi Colt platform
In-wheel motor
13 kWh Li-ion, 2 x 20kW in-wheel motors;
developing 50 kW in-wheel motor
Toyota Scion conversion by AC Propulsion
“We plan to manufacture safetycertified electric vehicle conversions
and sell them to retail and fleet
customers. The conversions will be
based on the Scion xA and xB, the
new sport compact vehicles built by
Toyota...
Toyota Scion conversion by AC Propulsion
“We plan to manufacture safetycertified electric vehicle conversions
and sell them to retail and fleet
customers. The conversions will be
based on the Scion xA and xB, the
new sport compact vehicles built by
Toyota...
“We plan two models, a base
model, and a premium with a
larger battery. The base model
will outperform the RAV4 EV
and is expected to sell for
about the same price.”
But, don’t we need to
wait for the big OEMs?
OEM Automobile Logic
• Automobile as receiver of petroleum;
isolated from other energy systems
• Engine as the primary value added,
owned by OEM (other components
commodity items, from suppliers)
• Expertise in combustion, mechanical
engineering, low-cost production
• No expertise or IP in electrochemistry,
power electronics, power markets
• Consumer’s performance space
inviolable
BEV and PHEV Logic
• Non-fossil carriers essential to the future
• Hydrogen unlikely, especially in the near
term, thus electricity primary carrier
• CO2 displacement very large, especially
with hydro or wind
• Electricity as carrier leads to V2G logic...
V2G Logic
• Cars: A power resource too large to
ignore
• V2G makes electric power capacity
cheap, but electric energy is still
expensive
• Today, market value for grid
management
• Future, enable very large renewable
energy
• Optimize design for both transport and
electric system -- OEMs will not do this
Example logical
disconnect: The Plug
• OEM:
stay at 110 VAC, 2 kW is plenty for
overnight charging, use off-the-shelf power
components, no electrician needed (save
$500), anyway where’s the V2G rate schedule?
• V2G:
add 15kW connection, get fast charge,
sell regulation services (add revenue of
$3,000/year), start with regional markets.
Example logical
disconnect: The Plug
• OEM:
stay at 110 VAC, 2 kW is plenty for
overnight charging, use off-the-shelf power
components, no electrician needed (save
$500), anyway where’s the V2G rate schedule?
• V2G:
add 15kW connection, get fast charge,
sell regulation services (add revenue of
$3,000/year), start with regional markets.
The OEMs don’t get it. They aren’t going to get it until
someone else puts the pieces together and shows how
it works.
Better to demonstrate
the V2G business
model without OEMs
Better to demonstrate
the V2G business
model without OEMs
• V2G revenues mean we can afford to
make cars that costs $10K too much
• Less capitalized manufacturing process
allows design refinements as we
understand the businesses
• The critical cost barriers are components,
not low-cost assembly
Which power markets?
Not bulk power, because costs > revenue
Ideal to start selling mostly power (capacity) not
so much energy ... ancillary services (A/S)
A/S: Regulation, spinning reserves, reactive
power, etc ~ $10B/year in US
Vehicle can run regulation while parked and
charging (next slides)
Regulation from hydro
Regulation from V2G (drive, charge & A/S)
A sequence of markets
High value regulation great for buying down
initially high vehicle cost
About 1 - 3% of the vehicle fleet saturates
regulation, up to perhaps 4-5% saturates
other A/S, then start selling peak power
As V2G costs drop and A/S saturates, start
selling storage for intermittent renewables
(8-38% of fleet enables 50% wind!)
So, let’s look at some business models...
PJM A/S Regulation:
Single Vehicles
Average DPL costs for Ancillary Service
regulation: $6,800,000/year ($6.8M)
Average PJM regulation contract price in
2003 was $38.33 $/MW-h
Single vehicle, 15 kW, available 18 h/d, A/S
reg -> $3777 revenue/year
PJM contracts 1 MW, so, need an
aggregator (e.g., Delmarva, Verizon Cellular
or ...)
A/S Regulation: Fleet
operator as IPP
100 vehicles, parked 18h/d (16 h * 5 days +
24 h * 2 days), 80% available, each 20 kW
A/S regulation services at $38/MW-h.
Single connection point, single meter, 2 MW
peak “generator” --> higher ISO comfort
Revenue: 100*18h*365d*.8*.02MW*$38=
$400,000/year revenue from fleet
($4,000/car/year)
Regional assembly
Buy gasoline vehicle, modify to electric with V2G
2
10 lifts in a 10,000-15,000 ft warehouse, 15-20
employees, produce 250 cars/year, 2 shifts=500
Vehicle conversion local, battery assembly local,
cars sourced from OEM, drive sourced from AC
Propulsion, national/local sourcing of: gearbox,
wiring harness, non-drive electronics, metal parts.
Production could start in 12 - 18 months!
Assembler Finances
Engineer for each platform: Cost about $1 - $2M
for engineering and testing. Add $2M for NTSA
crash tests, manufacturer certification.
Set up shop for $US 0.4 to 1.0 million; working
capital about $3 m
Assembler cost breakpoints at 500, 2,000
vehicles/year; OEM cost breaks at 30,000 100,000/year
Vehicle cost at 250/year perhaps $45k; an
argument for public subsidy
Transition Strategy
Start simple: Battery now, e-hybrid later
Small fleets: 100 car V2G fleet = 1 MW;
demonstrate V2G business models
Production in several regions, develop
technology, drive down component costs
Develop standards for V2G (e.g. response time,
metering, at least 10 kW/car, drawdown limits,
etc)
THEN we need the OEMs, low-cost production at
> 50,000 cars/year
How to launch a V2G industry?
Well under $20 M gets several fleets going
OR, a couple of state PUCs could
allow/ratebase/require their IOUs to buy 100
vehicle size V2G fleets
OR, a municipal government or urban peak power
user could provide free CBD parking & free
charge in exchange for V2G
OR, a state legislature could use a small gasoline,
electric, or car registration fee to buy down
initial costs of V2G vehicles
Vision
One-half vehicle fleet is electric drive: battery plus
plug-in hybrid
One-half of electric energy from wind, eventually
other renewables
Climate change is greatly slowed down; US can
survive (a while) without foreign oil
CO2-free electricity, high-penetration intermittent
renewables, and CO2-free transportation: an
unexpected and dramatic synergy