Transcript Chapter One - Globalization101

Lesson 3: Population Theories
Adapted from Rubenstein textbook, Chapter
2
Variations in Population Growth
The Demographic Transition Model
1. Low growth
2. High growth
3. Moderate growth
4. Low growth
Model predicts that all countries would over time go
through four demographic transition stages.
The Demographic Transition
Fig. 2-13: The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high
birth and death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and
finally to a stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most
rapid in the second stage.
Demographic Transition in Britain
Fig. 2-14: England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population growth in
the mid-eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition.
Limitations to DT Model
 The model is overly generalized to the European experience.
 The model is too rigid. It assumes that all countries go through
all four phases of demographic transition.
 The model does not take into account other variables, such as
war, political turmoil, etc.
 Question: Can contemporary less developed countries hope to
achieve either the demographic transition or the economic
progress enjoyed by more developed countries that passed
through the transition at a different time and under different
circumstances? Why or why not?
 Question? Is the socioeconomic change experienced by
industrialized countries a prerequisite or a consequence of
demographic transition? Explain
Thomas Malthus on Population Change
 In 1798, he published the
Essay on the Principle of
Population
 Populations grow
exponentially: i.e. 1, 2,
4, 16, 32, etc.
 Food supply grows
arithmetically: i.e. 1, 2,
3, 4, etc.
 Consequence:
eventually, the
population will exceed
the food supply
capacity.
300
250
200
Population
150
Food
100
50
0
1
2
3
4
Thomas Malthus on Population Change
 So, population would
rise until it reaches its
limits. Potential limits:
 Preventive checks postponement of
marriage (lowering
of fertility rate),
increased cost of
food, abortion, etc.
 Positive checks famine, war, disease,
would increase the
death rate.
 Providing food and
shelter to the poor ->
population growth and
increased poverty.
Population grows
geometrically….
Population exceeds
carrying capacity…
Population is kept in
“check”–
preventative and/or
positive checks
Critiques on Malthus
 Humans can actually increase their own food supply –
productivity does not remain stagnant.
 Besides for this theories about helping the poor, can you
think of other critiques or do you think his basic premise
is right?
Food &
Population,
1950-2000
Malthus vs.
Actual Trends
Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production,
but food production actually expanded faster than population in the
2nd half of the 20th century.
Will the World Face an Overpopulation
Problem?
Yes:
 “The world's biggest problem? Too many people... Our unsustainable population
levels are depleting resources and denying a decent future to our descendants. We
must stop the denial….Globally, the effects of overpopulation play a part in
practically every daily report of mass human calamity…What to do? Stop the denial.
Perpetual growth is the creed of a cancer cell, not a sustainable human society.” – Lost
Angeles Times, July 21 2011
 “World Bank president Robert McNamara has warned…they are doing too little to
avoid a non-military threat that ranks in importance with thermonuclear war. The nonmilitary threat he says is overpopulation – 11 billion people crammed into a world that
now has trouble holding four billion.” – The Phoenix, April 30 1977
 “Americans are starting to realize that the underdeveloped countries of the world face
an inevitable population-food crisis..it now seems that it will continue to its logical
conclusion: mass starvation…Of these poor, a minimum of ten million people , most
of them children, will starve to death during each year of the 1970s…but this will be a
mere handful compared to those that will be starving before the end of the century.”
The Population Bomb 1968
Will the World Face an Overpopulation
Problem?
No
 “The World Is Not Overpopulated… The UN projects, under its medium-growth
scenario, that the human population will remain relatively stable at 9 billion until the
year 2300.The reason is that birth rates are naturally falling around the world... If
population poses a problem, it is likely due to distribution, not to growth... There are
many wide-open spaces for the population to expand. The trick will be to figure out
a way to incentivize responsible growth, not to discourage it entirely.” - Real Clear
Science, July 20, 2011
 A common green orthodoxy today is that there are too many people on this planet,
and that we need to do something about it…Obviously, demographic modeling
contains lots of cultural and political assumptions, and should be treated as
politically informed rather than neutral observations…It becomes clear that in a
sexist, imperialist, capitalist world, it is impossible to separate discussion of
population control from hierarchies of oppression. Which population is going to be
“controlled” and how will this control come about?... As relatively rich Western
countries consume the most energy, it is often argued that it is their populations, in
particular, that should be curbed…But to imply that the Earth should come before a
child can lead down a dangerous path. It may lead to a resentment of those social
groups that migrate or reproduce more often than others. – Shift magazine