Transcript An Overview of Methods for Estimating Urban Populations

The Human Population:
Patterns, Processes, and Problematics
Lecture #4: Demographic Perspectives
Paul Sutton
[email protected]
Department of Geography
University of Denver
Establishing your ‘Demographic Perspective’
• Most people have a demographic perspective
which influences attitudes about immigration,
english-only policy, foreign aid, etc.
• By taking this class you will be exposed to a
significantly larger and more diverse set of
‘Demographic Perspectives’ that will hopefully
allow you to develop a fairly sophisticated one.
• Demography at the ‘Core’; whereas, various other
‘Theories’ are influential in their attempts to link
basic demographic phenomoena with social,
economic, and political processes.
Development of ‘Demographic Perspective’
• Basic Questions to answer:
– What causes populations to grow and change?
– What are the consequences of population growth?
• Doctrine vs. Theory
– Plato, Adam Smith, etc. produced Doctrine
– Easterlin, contemporary demographers produce
Theory
• Doctrine is statement of perceived Truth
• Theory is a scientific approach to explaining
observations and generally evolves with time.
Examples of Pre-Modern Doctrines Concerning Population
~1300 b.c. Book of Genesis: “Be Fruitful & Multiply”
~500 b.c. Confucius: Pop Growth Good; but, Govt. should balance population
with resources
360 b.c. Plato: Pop Quality more important than Pop Quantity
340 b.c. Aristotle: Pop size should be limited abortion ok
~100 b.c. Cicero: Pop growth good to maintain Roman Empire
~400 A.D. St Augustine: Abstinence best, Marry & breed 2nd
~1280 A.D. Thomas Aquinas: Celibacy NOT better than marrying
~1380 A.D. Ibn Khaldun: Population Growth necessarily good
because it increases occupational specialization and raises
incomes.
1500-1800 Mercantilism: Increasing National Wealth depends on
growing population that can stimulate export trade
1700-1800 Physiocrats: Wealth of a nation is in land, not people;
therefore population size depends upon the wealth of the land,
which is stimulated by free trade (laissez faire)
Modern Theories of Demography
• 1798 Malthus: Pop grows exponentially; Food Supply Arithmetically,
Misery & Poverty result in absence of ‘moral restraint’
• 1800 Neo-Malthusians: Same as Malthus but birth control ok
• 1844 Marxism: Each society has their own demographic destiny; Poverty
not a natural result of population growth
• 1870-1930 Precursors of Demographic Transition Theory (Mill, Dumont,
Thompson)
• 1945 Demographic Transition Theory: Evolution of Birth & Death
Rates stable pop > Growing pop > stable pop
• 1963 Theory of Demographic Change and Response: Causes and
Consequences of Population Change are intertwined
• 1968 Relative Cohort Size: Ever increasing cohorts impact earning
power and trade-offs are made between family size and standard of living
• 1890-Present Various Other Theories of Predictable Consequences
of Population Growth (Boserup, Goldstone, Durkheim, etc.)
Debates about the
social, economic, and
environmental
Consequences of
human population
growth have raged for
centuries. The figure
on the right
summarizes some of
the diverse
perspectives that have
arisen from these
dialogs.
"Heaven"
The Man in
the Middle?:
Malthus
and the dismal
ideas in his
GOD
Karl Marx
The Books:
Thomas Robert
Malthus
"Earth"
The Bible
The Communist
Manifesto
The Wealth
of Nations
The Origin of
the Species
Essay on the
Principle of
Population
Adam Smith
What did
Malthus say to
piss off so
many people?
Why do we still
talk about him?
Charles Darwin
18th Century Europe
Prelude to Malthus’ 1798 essay
• Optimistic Time for Liberal Democracy
– Marquis de Condorcet (shaped French Revolution but was nonetheless
killed by revolutionaries wrote: Sketch for an historical picture of the progress of the
human mind Book was an outlandish writing that argued for universal education,
universal suffrage, equality before the law, freedom of thought and expression,
women’ rights, redistribution of wealth, system of national insurance and pensions –
what a wacky liberal )
– William Godwin (father of Mary Shelly who wrote Frankenstein wrote a
don’t worry be happy book titled: Enquiry concerning Political Justice and its
influences on Morals and Happiness
• Perfectibility of Human Society seemed possible
• There were poor people (lots of them) but they existed
because of bad social institutions (according to Godwin & Condorcet)
• Malthus shows up and pisses on this parade of optimism
in his 1898 Essay on the Principle of Population
Thomas Robert Malthus 1766-1834
In this famous work, Malthus posited his hypothesis that
(unchecked) population growth always exceeds the growth
of means of subsistence. Actual (checked) population
growth is kept in line with food supply growth by "positive checks“
(starvation, disease and the like, elevating the death rate) and
"preventive checks" (i.e. postponement of marriage, etc. that
keep down the birthrate), both of which are characterized by
"misery and vice". Malthus's hypothesis implied that actual
population always has a tendency to push above the food supply.
Because of this tendency, any attempt to ameliorate the condition
of the lower classes by increasing their incomes or improving
agricultural productivity would be fruitless, as the extra means
of subsistence would be completely absorbed by an induced boost
in population. As long as this tendency remains, Malthus argued,
the "perfectibility" of society will always be out of reach.
In his much-expanded and revised 1803 edition of the Essay, Malthus concentrated on bringing empirical
evidence to bear (much of it acquired on his extensive travels to Germany, Russia and Scandinavia). He also
introduced the possibility of "moral restraint" (voluntary abstinence which leads to neither misery nor vice)
bringing the unchecked population growth rate down to a point where the tendency is gone. In practical
policy terms, this meant inculcating the lower classes with middle-class virtues. He believed this could be
done with the introduction of universal suffrage, state-run education for the poor and, more controversially,
the elimination of the Poor Laws and the establishment of an unfettered nation-wide labor market. He also
argued that once the poor had a taste for luxury, then they would demand a higher standard of living for
themselves before starting a family. Thus, although seemingly contradictory, Malthus is suggesting the
possibility of "demographic transition", i.e. that sufficiently high incomes may be enough by themselves to
reduce fertility.
Charles Darwin on Malthus
"In October 1838, that is, fifteen months after
I had begun my systematic inquiry, I happened
to read for amusement Malthus’ on Population,
and being well prepared to appreciate the
struggle for existence which everywhere
goes on from long- continued observation
of the habits of animals and plants, it at once
struck me that under these circumstances
favorable variations would tend to be
preserved, and unfavorable ones to be
destroyed. The results of this would be
the formation of a new species. Here, then
I had at last got a theory by which to work".
Charles Darwin, from his autobiography. (1876)
Summarizing The Principle of Population
• Cause of Population Growth:
– People naturally breed more than enough to replace themselves
• Consequence of Population Growth:
– Population oustrips food supply, starvation & misery
– Moral Restraint
Acres Under Cultivation
• Avoiding the Consequences:
on
i
t
la
u
p
Po
Food Shortage
ply
p
u
S
Food
Food Surplus
Time
Criticism of Malthus
(there’s a lot of it)
• Malthus Essay on the Principle of Population
must have been important because it has been
attacked by so many.
• Flawed Premises: Population growth geometric,
Food Growth arithmetic (linear), Population
growth causes poverty.
• Failure to anticipate Technological progress and
change.
Neo-Malthusians
• People like Garret Hardin, Paul Ehrlich, Lester
Brown, Sandra Postell, and others still contend
that a growing population causes social,
economic, political, and environmental problems.
• “There are good reasons for using Malthus as a point of
departure in the discussion of population theory. These
are the reasons that made his work influential in his day
and make it influential now. But they have little to do
with whether his views are right or wrong….Malthus’
theories are not now and never were empirically valid,
but they nevertheless were theoretically significant.”
The Marxist Perspective
• Karl Marx & Friedrich Engels teenagers in Germany in 1834
when Malthus died. Malthus influential there and laws against
marriage unless you could demonstrate financial viability.
Unintended consequence: more kids out of wedlock on the dole.
• Marxist theory has no explanation for the ‘why’ of population
growth (essentially agrees with Malthus). However, the
consequences of population growth are dependent upon the
social, economic, and political system in place. Capitalism
produces overpopulation and poverty; Socialism allows for
ready absorption of new population into economy with no
problems.
• Capitalism created overpopulation intentionally to be used as a
tool to keep labor in its place. Thus capitalism, not
overpopulation, caused poverty.
Criticism of the Marxists
• Marx and later Lenin held that under Socialism there
would be no population problem(s).
• Russia and China both had problems of a very different
nature: Russia was de-populating whereas China’s
population was growing too much.
• In fact, China perceived its population problems to be so
profound that it initiated the coercive “one-child’ policy
to curb its population growth. Promoting both later
marriage (Malthusian) and abortion and contraception
(Neo-Malthusian)
History of United Nations Population Conferences
• 1972 Bucharest: Developed Countries to 3rd World:
“Stop having so many Children you’ll undermine your
economic development” 3rd World Response:
“Development is the best Contraceptive”
• 1982 Mexico City: Developed Countries to 3rd World:
“Population growth has nothing to do with economic
development” 3rd World Response: “Can we have some
foreign aid to help us curb these wild growth rates”
• 1992 Cairo: “It’s all about status of women” The
Population – Feminist – Environmentalist rallying cry
Prelude to
Demographic Transition Theory
• John Stuart Mill
• Arsene Dumont
• Emile Durkheim
John Stuart Mill
(1806-1873)
• Standard of Living influences Fertility:
–
‘In proportion as mankind rises above the condition of the beast, population is
restrained by the fear of want, rather than by want itself. Even where there is
no question of starvation, many are similarly acted upon by the apprehension of
losing what have come to be regarded as the decencies of their situation in life.’
• Population & Resources in a race. By increasing
people’s standard of living you can decrease birth rates.
(post Plague, post French Revolution)
• Empowering women reduces birth rates because
women want fewer children than men.
Arsene Dumont
• People limit their fertility to allow climbing the
social ladder; rather, than Mill’s ideas about
falling down the social ladder. “Social
capillarity”
• Democracy increases social mobility thus
causing lower fertility rates
• Dumont was consequently an ardent socialist
because he thought socialism would increase
birth rates
Emile Durkheim
(1858-1917)
• Focused more on the consequences of population
growth rather than the causes
• “The division of labor varies in direct ratio with the
volume and density of societies, and, if it progresses in a
continuous manner in the course of social development,
it is because societies become regularly denser and
more voluminous”
• Population growth leads to specialization which echoes
Darwin and Ibn Khaldun
Demographic Transition Theory
• Describes a transition from High Birth and Death rates
to Low Birth and Death rates with population growth
during transiton (cause death rates drop first)
• Warren Thompson (1929) showed that countries fell into
three main groups:
– Group A (Western Europe and U.S.) High increase to
Low increase eventually to negative growth
– Group B (Italy, Spain, and Central Europe) dropping
growth rates. 30-50 years ahead of Group A
– Group C (The rest of the world) Little or no control
over birth or death rates
Theory to Explain Fertility Decline:
“The Demographic Transition”
Criticism of
Demographic Transition Theory
• Theory must match empirical observations,
explain, and predict.
• Many state that the Demographic Transition
Theory only describes what has happened in
some countries at certain times.
• What is the ‘cause’ of the changes to birth and
death rates? Modernization, Industrialization,
Improvements in Health Care, Changes to the
status of women?
Reformulation of
Demographic Transition Theory
• Geographic studies of the spatial diffusion of fertility
decline in places like Spain took place along cultural
rather than levels of urbanization or economic
development.
• A certain level of economic development is a necessary
but not sufficient condition for fertility decline. New
ideas suggested that secularization a more important
pre-cursor of fertility decline.
• Macro to Micro explanations for fertility decline
– Rational Choice Theory, the wealth flow in pre-modern
societies is from children to parents but this changes as a
society becomes modern. Children as helpers on the farm to
children as expensive tuition bills and sullen teenage looks.
Demographic Transition as
a set of transtions
• The Epidemiological Transition: Lower death rates from
improved sanitation, antibiotics, etc.
• The Fertility Transition: Shift from high (uncontrolled)
birth rates to low (controlled) birth rates
• The Migration Transition: Spatial differences in the
aforementioned transitions and technological gains create an
overpopulated rural area.
• The Age Transition: Much larger older population
• The Family and Household transition: Structural
changes to economy and society resulting from older more
urban population
Theory of Demographic Change and Response
• How do causes and consequences of population growth
interact? Are they independent?
• Specifically: “How and under what conditions can a mortality
decline lead to a fertility decline?”
• As mortality declines, more children survive to
adulthood, more pressure on family resources, family
responds to pressures.
• Family response is to Personal Goals, NOT National
goals.
• I have two sisters and a brother (my parents had four
children). I have one child and at most will have one more.
Kingsley Davis and Richard Easterlin might argue that I am
limiting my fertility in order to maintain the same or better
standard of living that my parents had.
Easterlin’s Relative Cohort Size Hypotheis
• People want to live at or better than the standard of living
they experienced as teenagers.
• If your prospects look good you will breed early, if they
look bad you will postpone breeding.
• Age structure of aggregate population also comes into
play in a demographic feedback cycle:
•
“The increase in relative cohort size that occurs as a result of declining mortality during the
demographic transition in part determines when the fertility portion of the transition begins.
The increasing proportion of young adults generates a downward pressure on young men’s
relative wages; this in turn causes young adults to accept a tradeoff between family size and
material well-being. This acceptance of a tradeoff could mark a turning point in a society’s
regulation of fertility, setting in motion a “cascade” or “snowball” effect in which total fertility
rates tumble as social norms regarding individual control of fertility and accaptable family
sizes begin to change” (Macunovich 2000)
• Some people are now suggesting that one response to this
kind of pressure was more women entering the workforce.
Theories about the Consquences
of Population Growth
• Malthus laid down the gauntlet and stated population
growth inevitably results in misery.
• Much of pre 20th century thought addressed these issues.
• 20th century thought has gone back to looking at causes
rather than consequences of population growth to gain
greater understanding of the big picture (fertility,
mortality, migration, age and sex structure, population
attributes and spatial distribution)
• Modern Outlook: Population Growth not a simple thing;
not caused by any specific set of forces, not necessarily
resulting in any particular consequences
Consquences continued…
• Jack Goldstone: Population growth a precursor of early
modern world. Large young populations forced change
and revolution
• Stephen Sanderson (also Boserup, Durkheim & others)
“Had paleo-lithic hunter gatherers been able to keep their populations from
growing, the whole world would likely still be surviving entirely by hunting and
gathering”
Population growth as driving force behind
agricultural and industrial revolution.
• Robert Kaplan’s The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the
dreams of the Post Cold War posits that demographic
forces in tandem with natural and institutional resource
shortages paint an ugly near future for the human race.
Why are there so few
Demography departments in
Colleges and Universities?
• Demography is weak on theory but strong on
evidence. The evidence or empirical observations
are numerous and confusing which makes it
difficult to generate overarching theory.
• Demography is embedded in many other
disciplines (Geography, History, Sociology,
Economics, Political Science) Statistics may
meet the same fate.
A provocative hypothesis
involving demographic perspectives
• Stephen Leavitt – Noted author of
“Freakonomics” and professor of
Economics at the University of Chicago had
a very controversial explanation for the
drop in crime rates in the early 1990s.
What was it?
Next Up: Population Processes
•
•
•
•
Chapter 4: Mortality
Chapter 5: Fertility Concepts and Measures
Chapter 6: The Fertility Transition
Chapter 7: Migration