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CGW4U
Chapter 6: Demographic Issues in Developing Countries
The Population Explosion
• A country will shift into the post-transition stage as they benefit
from economic and social growth. These social and economic
factors include: education, urbanization, health care, role of
women, resource availability, and technological advances.
Too Many People: The Demographic Trap
• A situation in which a developing country continues to have a
high BR, coupled with declining death rates (stuck in the late
transition stage). This problem causes a population increase
that threatens the country’s economic and social development.
• Ultimately, the demands of the growing population exceed the
carrying capacity of the country – overpopulation arises.
Problems Associated With Overpopulation:
Food, Education and Employment
• The most basic problem is providing enough
food. Some countries, like India, maintain
an adequate supply of food because of the
Green Revolution (period in the late 20th
Century of developing high-yield wheat and
rice crops).
• Low levels of education hinder demographic
transition – despite great efforts, more than
half of India’s adult population is illiterate.
• Country’s with booming populations have
difficulty providing jobs for everyone. Many
end up migrating to large cities in search for
work, but they don’t have the skills that are
necessary for jobs in the city (see feedback
loop Fig 6-3 on p.79)
Large, poorly
educated head to
cities in search of
employment
But many
segments of
advanced industry
need skilled
workers
Shortage of
wealth to
fund
education
Economic growth
suffers
Education
system is unable
to produce
enough skilled
workers
Growth in
industry is
hindered
India’s Approach to the Problem
• India’s population is projected to reach 1.5 billion by 2050. In the
1950’s, India’s population control focused on encouraging
sterilization and contraceptiontwo shortcomings: 1) they were
target-driven (no attention to role of women, education, economic
dev’l, and health, factors that reduce fertility; 2) a national, onesize-fits-all approach was adopted (ignoring cultural, religious,
economic differences within country)
China’s Approach to Overpopulation
• In 1958, the first attempt was the
Great Leap Forward (an
agricultural and industrial attempt
to accelerate the process of
demographic transition), which
had disastrous results – food
shortages and skyrocketing
death rates
• In the late 1960’s, China adopted
a one-child policy to address their
population problem (p.82-83).
Statistically successful but
brought other problems: obvious
human rights violations, shortage
of women, medical concerns, etc.
Kerala’s Demographic Transition
• Kerala is poor, its economy is stagnant, yet
demographic transition occurred – how? 1)
Education: vast majority are literate,
especially women. 2) Status of Women:
well educated & empowered. 3) Health
care: accessible and inexpensive. 4) Landreform: policies ensure every farmer owns
at least some land. 5) Government: has
provided for the needs of citizens. 6) Travel
& Employment: many citizens bring money
into country by working in the Mid-East oil
industry.
• Kerala’s demographic transition happened
by diffusion (understanding benefits of
smaller family spread through the region),
whereas other countries make structural
changes (like China’s one-child policy).
The Future of Population Control
• In 1994, the United Nations held a conference in Cairo known
as the International Conference on Population and
Development (ICPD). They realized that trying to control
population by dealing with fertility alone is doomed to failure.
Population growth will only be controlled through “big picture”
economic and social development
• Principles adopted are often controversial; countries’
‘willingness’ and ‘ability’ to adopt them are huge obstacles.