Transcript Eurabia? - Eric Kaufmann

‘Eurabia?
The Foreign Policy Implications of
West Europe’s Religious Composition in 2025
and Beyond’
Eric Kaufmann
Birkbeck College, University of London
[email protected]
'Eurabia' Discourse, 2015
• America (Steyn,
Lewis)
• Europe (Bolkestein,
Chesnais, etc)
• 2015 is
scaremongering, but:
– What are the
demographic
trends?
– What are the political
implications for
domestic and foreign
policy?
Modernity, Demography, Politics
• In the long run, populations stable
• Demography: Modernity Brings Demographic
Transition
• Politics: Modernity Makes Numbers Count, Not
Kings
• 'Masses Ushered into History': what the masses
believe matters:
–
–
–
–
Nation
Ethnic group
Class
Even religion (not of the king, but popular creeds)
Modernity = Demographic Conflict?
• Telescopes Global Instability within nations
• Uneven Demographic Transition, uneven age
structures. Global migration pressures.
• Nationalism: geopolitics. Which nation is growing,
which losing, which old, which young?
• Liberty: relaxed immigration. Permits global
demographic instability to affect the country
• Democracy: elections as a census. Which ethnic
group will dominate the election and hold power?
• Equality: more rights and entitlements. Which
ethnic group pays tax, which gets the benefit?
Modernity: Pacific Forces
• Technology: insulates small, rich countries
from populous poor aggressors
• Liberty: softens inter-ethnic and international boundaries (??)
• Nationalism: integrates or assimilates
internal ethnic diversity (??)
• Modernity and Demography: where does
the balance lie? Arguably the conflict
drivers are more potent than the mitigators
Demographic Change and Ethnic
Violence
• Tight Ethnic Boundaries + Demographic
Change:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Lebanon
Israel/Palestine
N. Ireland
Bosnia
Kosovo
Uganda
Ivory Coast
Assam/India
USA c. 1840-60; 1885-1925? France, c. 1900?
Ethnic Change in the West
• Looser ethnic boundaries + integration can
dissipate conflict
• California: 90 pc white in 1960; 50 pc in
2000; 30 pc in 2050; USA 90 pc white in
1960, 50 pc white in 2050
• UK: 8 pc nonwhite in 2001, 25 pc in 2050;
• No 'Rivers of Blood', despite demographic
change
Takes Two to Tango
• Inter-Faith Marriage: from 90 pc endogamy to
50 pc among American Jews and Catholics after
1960
• Inter-Racial Marriage: 1/3 of Hispanics, ½ of
East Asians, even 10 pc of African-Americans in
USA
• UK: more children with one white and one black
parent being born than with two black parents
• Holland: high Indonesian and Caribbean
intermarriage
• Gellner & counter-entropic resistance (Jews)
• Will Muslim minorities follow the trend?
Estimated Proportion of Muslims in Selected
European Countries, c. 2000
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
g
d
ia
in
ry
al
nd
n
n
a
a
g
ur
a
a
a
p
g
u
l
l
b
t
S
in
Po Hun
om Por
em
F
x
R
Lu
Source: (Maréchal 2002)
Ita
ly
d
k
ds
en ium ece
ria any lan
ar
t
n
d
e
m
lg
us
re
rla
rm tzer
w
e
A
e
en
G
e
S
B
i
D
th
G
Sw Ne
K
U
e
nc
a
Fr
Source: Goujon et al. 2006
Muslim Demographic Trends
• Austria 9-10 pc Muslim in 2025
• Switzerland 7-8 pc Muslim in 2025
• Current Estimate: W. Europe 7-8 pc Muslim in
2025 – similar to France today
• Urban concentration in 'majority minority' cities:
Amsterdam (49 pc non-Dutch in 2004); Leicester
(50 pc nonwhite by 2010, Birmingham by 2027)
• Younger: 1/5 UK births to foreign-born mother;
½ in London; 1/3 in Moscow; 15 pc in Rome
No Muslim Secularization
Attendance at Religious Services, by Faith and Age,
2004 ESS
Weekly Attendance
RC
Prot
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Eastern
Muslims
18-24
25-34
35-44
W. European Muslim sample of 3.17%, N = 174
45-54
55-64
65+
Low Muslim Secularization……
Religious Retention by Faith and Birthplace, UK, 2001-3
(Excludes nonidentifiers. 'Practice' is self-description)
UK BP Muslims
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Foreign BP Muslims
UK Afro Christians
Foreign Afro Christians
UK White Christians
Foreign White Christians
2001
Attend Worship*
2003
Retain Religious Practice*
Ethnic Endogamy Rates, Couples, 2001 UK Census
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
B Caribbean
Chinese
B African
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Political Effects in 2025
• Effects felt first in maternity wards and
primary schools, much later in voting
booth. 2025 too early.
• Unless immigrant groups concentrate in
'swing' constituencies (i.e. California,
Florida and Hispanics)
• Foreign Policy: More likely effect is media
and political elite fears of youth
radicalization
A Delayed Effect
Source: ‘The
Moment of Truth’,
Ha’aretz,
8 February 2007
Wildcards
• White v. Nonwhite coalition (nationalist
cleavage)
• Christian-Secular anti-Muslim coalition
(civilizational cleavage)
• Muslim-Christian 'religious' coalition?: 55% of
London's Christians are nonwhite. More mosque
attendance than Anglican. Shift from ethnicsectarian to religious cleavage in USA, 19681980. (moral-religious cleavage)