Population

APHG – Spring 2013

Low Growth in Denmark

Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s,with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.

Demographic Transition in England

England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population growth in the mid-eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of the demographic transition.

Demographic Transition

 Less developed countries : mortality revolution after World War II; changes did not result from economic development within the countries, but were a result of international aid.

 The impact of Western technology moves a population from a stage I into a stage II. Industrialization and economic development moves populations into a stage IV

The Demographic Transition

The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high birth and death rates, to declines first in birth rates then in death rates, and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most rapid in the second stage.

Population Pyramids

• Population pyramids – A bar graph showing a place’s age and sex composition – Shape of the pyramid is determined mainly by the CBR – Age distribution • Dependency ratio – Sex distribution • Sex ratio

Population Age Structure Diagram

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision

Rapid Growth Slow Growth No Growth

Population Pyramids – Stages Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia

2 3

Slow Growth United States Australia Canada

4

Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Ages 0-14 Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden Ages 15-44

5

Ages 45-85+

Demographic Transition Model: Development & Population Intersect…

Population Pyramids in U.S. Cities

Population pyramids can vary greatly, with different fertility rates (Laredo vs. Honolulu), or among military bases (Unalaska), college towns (Lawrence), and retirement communities (Naples).

Future Population Trends

Key Issue 4:

Why Might the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?

  Malthus on overpopulation Declining birth rates  World Health Threats  Malthus argued that the world’s rate of population increase was far outrunning the development of food supplies  Malthus claimed that population increased geometrically, while food supply increased arithmetically.

 Malthus concluded that population would press available resources in every country, unless “moral restraint” produced lower birth rates or unless diseases, famine, war, or other disasters produced higher death rates.

Malthus Theory

• Malthus on overpopulation –

An Essay on the Principle of Population

(1798): Population grows geometrically while food supply grows arithmetically – Criticism of Malthus includes the following: • Pessimistic viewpoint • Failure to consider technological innovation • Marxist critique

Malthus Theory

Neo – Malthusians: Some geographers are taking another look at Malthus’s theory, because of the unprecedented rate of natural increase in LDC’s. Neo – Malthusians paint a frightening picture of a world in which billions of people are engaged in a desperate search for food and fuel.

Malthus’s Critics: Criticism has been leveled at both the population growth and resource depletion sides of Malthus’s equation. They argue that a larger population could stimulate economic growth and therefore produce more food. Some political leaders, especially in Africa, argue that more people will result in greater power.

Food and Population, 1950 –2000

Malthus vs. Actual Trends

Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the second half of the twentieth century.

Malthus: Theory & Reality

Reasons for declining BR

• Declining birth rates – Reasons for declining birth rates • Reliance on economic development • Distribution of contraceptives –Reducing birth rates with contraception

Crude Birth Rate Decline, 1981 –2001

Crude birth rates declined in most countries between 1981 and 2001 (though the absolute number of births per year increased from 123 to 133 million).

Use of Family Planning

Both the extent of family planning use and the methods used vary widely by country and culture.

Projections of World Population

Future of World Population Growth: Three Scenarios, 2000 to 2100  World population is projected to increase to 7.8 billion by 2025  8.9 billion by 2050  If the growth rate does not fall and the worlds population reaches 11 billion by 2100, the population will have doubled in about 100 years

Components of Population Change Future of World Population Growth: Three Scenarios, 2000 to 2100

Patterns of Population Change

Q&A: Why does it take so long to slow or stop population growth?

Population Momentum:  Growth through natural increase occurs when the birth rate exceeds the death rate.

 The rate of natural increases of a population depends on birth and death rates, which are strongly influenced by the population age.

 The momentum of population growth in less developed countries will be slowed when the larger number of young adults resulting from previous high fertility have passed out of the childbearing years and a smaller generation reproduces at replacement level fertility.

 Two strategies have been successful in reducing birth rates. Economic development and distribution of contraceptives.

Impacts of Rapid Population Growth

Environmental Conditions: In the past, a relatively small global population with a low level of technology meant a fairly low impact on the environment. Today, however, the combination of a larger global population and high technology has led to many problems.

 Pollution of air, soil, and water  Deforestation and desertification

As the global population doubles sometime in the next 43 years, the pollution level will double – unless we change the way we extract resources from the environment.

Resource Availability

 Although increasing our level of technology enables us to extract more resources from the environment, we do not know if this process is infinite: there may be a limit to the number of resources we can extract from our planet.

 The availability of resources is largely determined by access to technology and resources.

Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth Environmental Relationships Per Capita Annual Renewable Freshwater Availability, 1950, 1995, 2050

Source: Population Action International, Sustaining Water, Erasing Scarcity.

Housing & Hunger

 Countries below “The Line,” population is growing faster than housing is being built; these countries cannot afford to build enough housing quickly enough to keep up with the growing population.

 As this cycle continues, the number of homeless people will increase.  At the present time, we can grow enough food to feed the world. However, people go hungry because we cannot distribute the food adequately. This problem has a direct effect on the mental development of children.

The

Brandt Line

is a visual depiction of the North-South divide, proposed by German Chancellor Willy Brandt in the 1980s. It approximately encircles the world at a latitude of 30 ° N, passing between North and Middle America, north of Africa and India, but dipping south so as to include Australia and New Zealand in the “Rich North.”

The map above showing the north-south divide as been updated recently to include countries like South Africa, Singapore and Taiwan. It was based upon the Brandt line and shows the more economically developed countries in blue and the less economically developed countries in red.

Positives of Map:

Simplifies data so that it's easy to understand.

GDP is used which is an easy to access data source.

Negatives of Map:

Doesn't include some countries which are more economically developed.

Generalized patterns with some countries above the Brandt line less developed less than some below.

Medical Care & Education

 Providing sufficient health care is already a problem in many places; even the United States cannot provide health care to all its inhabitants. As the global population grows, this problem will, too.  Worldwide about 8 million babies die annually before their first birthday.

 As countries develop economically, infant mortality usually declines.

 Every year, more and more people are illiterate and every year, more of the illiterate are women .

Status of Women

 Although women have gained more political and economic rights in the United States, in most of the rest of the world, women have lost ground

Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth The Status of Women

Source: Demographic and Health Surveys, 1991–1999

Women's Age at First Marriage (years) and Family Size (TFR) in Selected Countries, 1990s

Global Security & Wilderness

 Remember, as population grows, the demand for resources grows. If there is a limit to the amount of resources, competition for what is available will increase, which will threaten political and economical infrastructures.

 The more population grows, the more difficult it is to maintain wilderness area.  It is hard to preserve wilderness in poor areas: food and money!

Patterns of World Urbanization

Q&A:

What are the social implications of rapid population growth in less developed countries?

 Rural, dependent on agriculture and hunting for survival.

 In 1800, only 3% of the world’s population lived in urban areas.

   1900, almost 14% were urbanites, only 12 cities had 1 million or more people.

1950’s, 30% of the world’s population resided in urban centers. 83 cities had over 1 million 2000, about 47% of the world’s population lived in urban areas(2.8 Billion)   411 cities over 1 million Developed nations are about 76% urban  40% of residents of less developed countries live in urban areas

Future Urbanization Patterns

 2030, 60% of the world’s population will be urban  Most urban growth will occur in less developed countries.

Q&A:

What is an urban area?

Any place with a population of 2500 + urban; some set a minimum of 20,000.

 2000, 39% of the world’s urbanites lived in agglomerations of 1 million  15% resided in agglomerations of 5 million or more.

 8% of Americans live in cities of 1 million or more.

Megacities

 10 Million habitants = megacities  1950: 8cities had populations of 5 million or more 2 of them in less developed countries  2000: 41  2015, 59 megacities will exist, 48 in less developed countries  1950, only one city had more than 10 million people  2015, 23 cities are projected to hold over 10 million people; all but four will be in less developed countries.

Largest Urban Agglomerations, 1950, 2000, 2015

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 1999 Revision

Top 10 Largest Urban Agglomerations in 1950, 2000, 2015

1950 2000 2015 1. New York, USA 12.3 1. Tokyo, Japan 2. London, England 8.7

26.4 1. Tokyo, Japan 26.4

2. Mexico City, Mex. 18.4 2. Bombay, India 26.1

3. Tokyo, Japan 6.9

3. Bombay, India 18.0 3. Lagos, Nigeria 23.2

4. Paris, France 5.4

5. Moscow, Russia 5.4

6. Shanghai, China 5.3

7. Essen, Germany 5.3

4. Sao Paulo, Brazil 17.8 4. Dhaka, Bang. 21.1

5. New York, USA 16.6 5. Sao Paulo, Bra 20.4

6. Lagos, Nigeria 7. Los Angeles 13.4 6. Karachi, Pakistan 19.2

13.1 7. Mex. City, Mex. 19.2

8. Buenos Aires, Arg 5.0

9. Chicago, USA 4.9

8. Calcutta, India 12.9 8. New York, USA 17.4

9. Shanghai, China 12.9 9. Jakarta,Indonesia17.3

10. Calcutta, India 4.4 10.Buenos Aires, Arg 12.6 10. Calcutta, India 17.3

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2005 Revision

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sc4HxPxNrZ0

Growth of Urban Agglomerations, 1950–2015

Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?

Epidemiologic Transition: World Health Threats

 Stage 1:

Pestilence and famine

 Stage of pestilence and famine  Infectious and parasitic diseases were principal causes of death  Black Plague  Pandemics  Stage 2:

Receding pandemics

 Stage of receding pandemics  Occurs over a wide geographic area  Effects a high proportion of the population  Cholera

Cholera in London, 1854

Stage 2: Receding pandemics Cholera and Dr. John Snow By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the source of the waterborne epidemic.

Epidemiologic Transition

 Stage 3:

Degenerative diseases

 Degenerative and human created diseases  Decrease in deaths from infectious diseases and an increase in disorders associated with aging  Cardiovascular disease and cancer  Stage 4:

Delayed degenerative diseases

 Delayed degenerative diseases  Heart diseases and cancer  Life is extended through medical advances

Epidemiologic Transition

 Stage 5:

Reemergence of infectious diseases?

 Stage of reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases  Evolution of diseases  Poverty  Travel  Malaria  Tuberculosis  SARS  AIDS – Three reasons why it might be happening: » Evolution » Poverty » Improved travel

HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2011

The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.

SARS Infections in China, 2003

China had 85 percent of the world's SARS cases in 2003. Within China, the infection was highly clustered in Guangdong Province, Hong Kong, and Beijing.

Tuberculosis Death Rates, 2000

The tuberculosis death rate is a good indicator of a country’s ability to invest in health care. TB is still one of the world’s largest infectious-disease killers.

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