Transcript fulis raodenoba - Grigol Modebadze

fulis masis zrda da inflacia
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fulis mniSvneloba
fuli aris aqtivebis is raodenoba ekonomikaSi romelsac adamianebi iyeneben
saqonlisa da momsaxurebis SesaZenad
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inflaciis klasikuri YTeoria
• inflacia aris fasebis saerTo donis zrda
• hiperinflacia es aris inflaciis araordinalurad maRali done
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inflaciis klasikuri YTeoria
• fulis raodenobrivi Teoria gamoiyeneba grZelvadiani periodSi fasiebis donis
da inflaciis dasadgenad
• rodesac fasebis saerTo done izrdeba fulis Rirebuleba ecema
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fulis miwodeba, moTxovna da sabazro wonasworoba
• fulis miwodebas gansazRvravs erovnuli banki da mis kontrols axdens Ria
sabazro operaciebiT
• fulze moTxovnas ganapirobebs ramodenime faqtori. maTSoris yvelaze
mniSvnelovania saprocento ganakveTi da fasebis saerTo done
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fulis miwodeba, moTxovna da sabazro wonasworoba
• sazogadoeba flobs fuls imitom rom fuli gacvlis sayovelTao saSualebaa
• ra raodenobis Tanxa eqneba sazogadoebas damokidebulia saqonlisa da
momsaxurebis fasze
• grZelvadian periodSi Tu ra raodenobis Tanxa unda qondes mosaxleobas
ganisazRvreba fulis miwodebis da moTxovnis tolobiT
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fulis miwodeba, moTxovna da sabazro wonasworoba
fulis Rirebuleba
1 /PP
(maRali)
fulis miwodeba
P P
1
1
/4
1.33
3
Efulis wonasworuli
Rirebuleba
Pfasebis done
/
12
A
2
(dabali)
fasebis wonasworuli
done
4
/
14
fulis moTxovna
(dabali)
0
fulis raodenoba
(maRali)
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monetaruli Carevis Sedegi
fulis Rirebuleba
1/P
MS1
Pfasebis done
MS2
P
1
1
(maRali)
1. fulis miwodebis gazrda
3
1.33
2. fulis Rirebulebis Semcireba/
4
12
/
A
2
B
14
/
(dabali)
(dabali)
fulis moTxovna
3. . . . and
increases
the price
level.
4
(maRali)
0
M1
M2
fulis raodenoba
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klasikuri dixotomia da monetaruli neitraliteti
• nominaluri cvladi aris cvladi romelic izomeba fulad erTeulSi.
• realuri cvladi aris cvladi romelic izomeba fizikuri erTeuliT
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klasikuri dixotomia da monetaruli neitraliteti
• realuri cvladi ar icvleba fulis raodenobis zrdasTan erTad
• fulis raodenobis cvlileba gavlenas axdens mxolod nominal cvladebze da ara
realurze.
• rodesac fulis raodenobis cvlileba gavlenas ver axdens cvladze am movlenas
monetaruli neitraliteti ewodeba
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fulis brunvis siCqare da raodenobrivi gantoleba
• fulis brunvis siCqare izomeba imis mixedviT Tu ramdenad swrafad gadadis
xelidan xelSi tipiuri erT lariani
V = (P  Y)/M
• sadac V aris brunvis siCqare
P - fasebis done
Y -warmoebis raodenoba
M –fulis raodenoba
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fulis brunvis siCqare da raodenobrivi gantoleba
• garkveuli maTematikuri gardaqmnis Semdeg gveqneba:
MV=PY
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fulis brunvis siCqare da raodenobrivi gantoleba
• raodenobrivi gantoleba gviCvenebs fulis raodenobis (M)kavSirs produqciis
nominalur RirebulebasTan (P*Y)
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fulis brunvis siCqare da raodenobrivi gantoleba
• raodenobrivi gantoleba gviCvenebs rom fulis raodenobs zrda rom moxdes
ekonomikaSi unda moxdes Semdegi sami faqtoris zrda:
• unda gaizardos Ffasebis saerTo done,
• unda gaizardos warmoebis raodenoba
• fulis brunvis siCqare unda Semcirdes.
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fulis brunvis siCqare da raodenobrivi gantoleba
• wonasworuli fasebis done, inflacia, fulis raodenobrivi Teoria
• fulis brunvis siCqare met-naklebad stabiluria droSi.
• rodesac erovnuli banki zrdis fulis raodenobas, is iwvevs proporciul cvlilebas
nominaluri warmoebis raodenobisas (P  Y).
• imitom rom fuli neitraluria, is gavlenas ver axdens warmoebis raodenobaze
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fuli da fasebi hiperinflaciis dros
• rodesac inflacia 50%-s cildeba gvaqvs hiperinflacia
• hiperinflacias adgili aqvs iseT qveynebSi sadac saxelmwifo fuls beWdavs im
mizniT rom dafaros gazrdili danaxarjebi
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(a) Austria
(b) Hungary
Index
(Jan. 1921 = 100)
Index
(July 1921 = 100)
100,000
100,000
Price level
Price level
10,000
10,000
Money supply
1,000
100
Money supply
1,000
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
100
1921
1922
1923
1924
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1925
(c) Germany
(d) Poland
Index
(Jan. 1921 = 100)
100,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000
10,000
100
1
Index
(Jan. 1921 = 100)
10,000,000
Price level
Money
supply
Price level
1,000,000
Money
supply
100,000
10,000
1,000
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
100
1921
1922
1923
1924
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1925
inflaciis gadasaxadi
• rodesac saxelmwifo zrdis Semosavlebs fulis beWvdis xarjze ewodeba inflaciis
gadasaxadi
• inflaciis gadasaxadi aris gadasaxadi maTTvis vinc flobs fuls.
• inflacia maSin mcirdeba rodesac saxlemwifo amcirebs danaxarjebs.
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fiSeris efeqti
• fiSeris efeqti gavmcnobs rom fulis raodenis zrdasTan erTad izrdeba inflacia
rasac mozdevs nominaluri saprocento ganakveTis zrdac igive raodenobiT
• realuri saprocento ganakveTi ucvleli rCeba.
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nominaluri saprocento ganakveTi da inflacia
Percent
(per year)
15
12
Nominal interest rate
9
6
Inflation
3
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
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inflaciis danaxarji
• Tu inflaciis zrdasTan erTad xelfasebic izrdeba maSin inflacia arafer kavSirSia
fulis msyidvelobiTi unaris SemcirebasTan da piriqiT
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gadasaxadis damaxinjeba inflaciis Sedegad
• sagadasaxado kanonmdebloba ar iTvaliswinebs inflacias, amitom mewarmes
ufro metis gadaxda uwevs mogebaze vidre sinamdvileSi ekuTvnis
• inflacia amcirebs saprocento sargebels, romelsac Cven depozitebze viRebT
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Table 1 How Inflation Raises the Tax Burden on
Saving
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