Transcript indonesia electricity supply challenges

PT PLN (PERSERO)
INDONESIA ELECTRICITY
SUPPLY CHALLENGES:
TEN-YEAR ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT PLAN
2010-2019
1
ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019
1. The electricity demand growth estimated average 9.3% per
year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%, West Indonesia 10.2% and East
Indonesia 10.6%)
2. The electricity sales from year 2010 onwards is forecasted
by assuming an average economic growth of 6.2% and an
average population growth of 1.17%.
It is anticipated that the sales for those years would not be
constrained, as all of the power plants of the fast track
program would have been already in operation.
3. Electrification ratio increase from 65% in 2009 to 91% by
the end of 2019.
4. DSM program to shave and shift peak load has not been
taken into account.
2
DEMAND FORECAST 2010-2019
54 TWh
21 TWh
IB : 10.2%
JAVA-BALI SYSTEM
11 TWh
28 TWh
IT : 10,6%
252 TWh
115 TWh
JB : 8,97%
Electricity Demand growth average 9.3%/year
3
INDONESIA ELECTRICITY RATIO 2009 sekita63%
NAD
72,7%
Category :
> 60 %
Sumut
75,5%
Riau +
Kepri
44,7%
Kalselteng
56,3%
Kaltim
53,9%
Lampung
47,1%
Jabar+Banten
64,95%
20 - 40 %
Suluteng
go
51,2%
Kalbar
49,5%
Sumbar
67,6%
Sumsel+Jambi+Bengkulu
50,3%
41 - 60 %
Babel
48,4%
Sulselrabar
55,8%
Sulten
g
47,64
%
Maluku
53,5%
Bali
76,2%
Jateng+Yog
ya
70,2%
Jatim
61,6%
NTB
29,9%
NTT
21,7%
Papua + Irjabar
27,8%
POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING
1. Some ageing and inefficient oil-fired power plants are retired as
soon as more effcient plants are available.
2. Generation expansion planning is made on least-cost principle, by
looking for generation configuration that have minimum system
costs.
3. However, development of renewables (especially geothermal and
some hydro) is encouraged, by treating these as fixed plants prior
to optimisation process.
4. Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) of <1 day/year is used as
reliability criteria during planning process.
The reserve margin is restricted within 35-50% range based on net
dependable capacity. Rental power plants and excess power are
not taken into account.
5
POLICY IN GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING
5.
Gas supply is assumed to be available for Java Bali system, yet
for outside Java – Bali system gas-fired power plants are
considered only if there is a definite gas supply. LNG receiving
terminal is also considered as one option of gas supply.
6.
Development of small scale coal-fired powerplants is used to
substitute oil-fired powerplants for smaller systems, if there is no
local primary energy resource available.
7.
Coal-fired power plants with unit size of 1,000 MW supercritical
would be introduced into the Java-Bali system.
8.
PLN expects a bigger role from private sector in IPP development.
6
GENERATION CAPACITY EXPANSION PLAN
Additional Capacity 53,219MW up to 2019
PLN Generation 32,636MW and IPP 20,583MW, Average 4800MW/year
7,000
6,000
1,258
890
936
5,000
2,763
4,000
2,238
413
IPP
3,461
3,000
3,329
2,896
PLN
2,282
5,248
5,141
2,000
1,000
4,699
3,553
3,425
3,178
117
1,479
1,054
1,440
1,738
1,681
2015
2016
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2017
2018
2019
7
Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Jawa)
1. PLTU 1 Jateng-Rembang, 2x315MW, Cons. Zelan+Tronoh+Priamanaya, Contract Signed
21March2007
2. PLTU 2 Banten-Labuan, 2x300MW, Cons. Chengda+Truba Jurong, Contract Signed
21March2007
3. PLTU 1 Jabar-Indramayu, 3x330MW, Cons. Sinomach+CNEEC+PT Penta Adi Samudra,
Contract Signed 21March2007
4. PLTU 2 Jatim-Paiton, 1x660MW, Cons. Harbin PE+Mitra Selaras+Hutama Energi, Contract
Signed 7August2007
5. PLTU 1 Banten-Suralaya, 1x625MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri, Contract Signed
12March2007
6. PLTU 1 Jatim-Pacitan 2x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract Signed
7Augus2007
7. PLTU 2 Jabar-Pelabuhan Ratu, 3x350MW, Cons. Shanghai Electric+Maxima Infrastructure,
Contract Signed 7August2007
8. PLTU 3 Banten-Teluk Naga, 3x315MW, Cons. Dongfang Electric+Dalle Energy, Contract
Signed 7August2007
9. PLTU 3 Jatim-Tg. Awar Awar, 2x350MW, Sinomach+CNEEC+Penta Adi Samudra, Contract
Signed 25April2008
10. PLTU 2 Jateng-Adipala Cilacap, 1x660MW, Contract 22December2008, COD 2012
8
Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa)
1.
2.
3.
4.
PLTU 2 Sumut-Pangkalan Susu, 2x220MW, Cons. Guangdong+Nintec+Bagus Karya
PLTU Kepri-Tg. Balai Karimun, 2x7MW, Cons. Shangdong+Rekadaya Elektrika
PLTU NAD-Meulaboh, 2x110MW, Synohydro
PLTU 1 Riau-Bengkalis, 2x10MW, Cons. Guandong
Machinery+Modaco+Kelsri+Angkasa Buana
5. PLTU 2 Riau-Selat Panjang, 2x7MW, Bouwstead Maxitherm
6. PLTU Sumbar-Teluk Sirih, 2x212MW, Cons. CNTIC+Rekayasa Industri
7. PLTU Lampung-Tarahan Baru, 2x100MW, Jiangxi Electric Power Design Institute+Adhi
Karya
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
PLTU 3 Babel-Bangka Baru, 2x30MW, Cons. Truba,+China Shanghai Group
PLTU 4 Babel-Belitung 2x16,5MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Poeser Indonesia
PLTU 1 Kalbar-Parit Baru, 2x50MW, Cons. Bumi Rama Nusantara+Altons
PLTU 2 Kalbar-Bengkayang, 2x27,5MW, Cons. Guangdong Machinery+Wijaya Karya
PLTU Kalsel-Asam Asam, 2x65MW, Cons. Chengda+Wijaya Karya
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
PLTU 1 Kalteng, Pulang Pisau, 2x60MW
PLTU 1 NTB-Bima, 2x10MW, Guandong+Modaco Enersys+Angkasa Buana Cipta
PLTU 2 NTB-Lombok,2x25MW, Barata Indonesia
PLTU 1 NTT-Ende 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika
PLTU 2 NTT-Kupang, 2x16,5MW, Shandong Mavhinery+Poeser Indonesia
9
Fast Track Program Phase 1 (Outside Jawa)
18. PLTU Gorontalo, 2x25MW, Meta Epsi
19. PLTU 2 Sulut-Amurang, 2x25MW, Wijaya Karya
20. PLTU Sultra-Kendari, 2x10MW, Cons. Shangdong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika
21. PLTU Sulsel-Barru, 2x50MW, Cons. Hubei Hongyuan Engineering+Bagus Karya
22. PLTU Maluku Utara-Tidore, 2x7MW, Cons. Shandong Machinery+Rekadaya Elektrika
23. PLTU 3 Papua-Jayapura, 2x10MW, Cons. Modern Widya Technical+Boustead
Maxitherm
10
Fast Track Program Phase 2
•
More geothermal projects will be developed, and large coal fired
power plant in Java to be excluded from Fast Track Program Phase 2.
In addition to that, Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage Project will be
included in the program.

The composition of project will consist of: geothermal 48%, hydro
12%, gas combined cycle 14% and coal fired outside Java-Bali 26%.

The capacity of the projects will be as follows:

Java-Bali: geothermal 2,137 MW, hydro 1,000 MW and gas
combined cycle 1,200 MW.

Outside Java-Bali: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 174 MW,
geothermal 2,596 MW, and gas combined cycle 240 MW.

Total Indonesia: coal plant 2,616 MW, hydro 1,174 MW,
geothermal 4,733 MW and gas combined cycle 1,440 MW,
totalling 9,963 MW.
Fast Track Program Phase 2

The second phase of fast track program will consist of 3,649 MW of
PLN’s project and 6,314 MW of IPP project.

The 1,200 MW gas combined cycle in Java-Bali is Muara Tawar Add-On
2,3,4 project. This project is very strategic in that it will meet the future
demand by the year 2011-2012, however the feasibility of the project
will subject to gas supply availability.

The 1,000 MW hydro project in Java-Bali is Upper Cisokan Pumped
Storage. This project is very strategic as it will serve as peaking unit to
replace the role of oil fired plants.

Most geothermal projects will be IPP. To ensure the success of the
projects within the time frame of the program (up to 2014), geothermal
developers must take immediate project preparation and PLN must make
immediate geothermal IPP procurement.
Summary of Fast Track Program Phase 2
REGION
Steam
Coal PP
Combined
Cycle PP
(MW)
(MW)
Geo PP
Hydro PP
Total
(MW)
(MW)
(MW)
JAVA-BALI
-
1.200
2.137
1.000
4.337
OUTSIDE
JAVA-BALI
2.616
240
2.596
174
5.626
TOTAL
2.616
(26%)
1.440
(14%)
4.733
(48%)
1.174
(12%)
9.963
(100%)
Map of Fast Track Program Phase 2
SUMATERA
•
•
•
•
PLTA : 174 MW
PLTP : 2285 MW
PLTU : 1100 MW
PLTGU : 120 MW
KALIMANTAN
• PLTU : 840 MW
• PLTGU : 120 MW
SULAWESI
• PLTP : 195 MW
• PLTU : 418 MW
MALUKU
PAPUA
• PLTP : 40 MW
• PLTU : 44 MW
• PLTU : 114 MW
NTT
• PLTP : 46 MW
• PLTU : 30 MW
JAMALI
•
•
•
•
PLTP : 2.137 MW
PLTU :
0 MW
PLTGU : 1.200 MW
PLTA : 1.000 MW
NTB
• PLTP :30 MW
• PLTU :70 MW
TOTAL
•
•
•
•
PLTA
PLTP
PLTU
PLTGU
TOTAL
:
:
:
:
:
1174
4733
2616
1440
9963
MW
MW
MW
MW
MW
Investment of Fast Track Program Phase 2
PLN
Plant
Steam Coal PP
Combined Cycle PP
Geothermal PP
Hydro PP
Total
IPP
Capacity
(MW)
Investment
380
549
2,236
3,231
1,440
1,210
-
-
655
917
4,078
10,195
1,174
1,148
-
-
3,649
3,824
6,314
13,426
(Million USD)
Capacity
(MW)
Investment
(Million USD)
TRANSMISSION EXPANSION PLANNING
JAVA-BALI 2008-2018
KEBUTUHAN TRANSMISI JAWA-BALI 2008-2018
Satuan kms
TRANSMISI
2008
500 kV AC
2009
159
2010
2011
127
4
2012
329
2013
920
2014
606
2015
444
500 kV DC
100
2017
60
2018
340
350
150 kV
564
3,497
1,403
1,120
70 kV
14
80
10
22
578
3,735
1,541
1,146
TOTAL
2016
727
482
560
282
644
Total
3,089
350
276
12
9,567
126
1,056
1,402
1,166
726
1,094
336
352
13,132
KEBUTUHAN TRAFO JAWA-BALI 2008-2018
Satuan MVA
TRAFO
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1,666
4,666
3,000
2,000
1,000
4,000
3,500
3,000
6,000
150/70 kV
160
490
160
150/20 kV
1,820
4,800
7,920
4,036
3,570
3,480
3,330
3,690
5,370
60
460
190
90
90
80
80
150
3,706
10,416
11,270
6,126
4,660
7,560
6,910
6,840
500/150 kV
70/20 kV
TOTAL
2008
2017
2018
Total
1,000
29,832
100
910
5,160
1,980
45,156
190
130
100
1,620
11,560
5,290
3,180
77,518
16
Project Name
COD
Financing Plan
Transmisi 275 kV Sumatera (Payakumbuh –
Padangsidempuan)
2012 Loan JICA
Transmisi 275 kV Rengat – Garuda Sakti
(220 km)
2014 unallocated
Transmisi Sumatera-Jawa ± 500 kV HVDC
2016 USD 2,3 milyar, Loan JICA
Jawa-Bali Crossing 500 kV HVAC
2015 USD 328 juta, akan
diusulkan ke ADB
Interkoneksi Kalbar-Serawak 275 kV HVAC
2012 USD 101 juta, akan
diusulkan ke ADB
Interkoneksi Sumatera-Malaysia ± 250 kV
HVDC
2015 USD 353 juta, akan
diusulkan ke ADB/JICA
Perkuatan Transmisi Sistem Jakarta dan Bali
2011 USD 420 juta, KE
2012
Perkuatan Transmisi Kota-Kota Besar di
Jawa
2012 USD 250 juta, IBRD
Transmisi 500 kV AC Tj Jati - Ungaran –
Pemalang – Mandirancan – Indramayu
(±500 km)
2015 USD 300 juta, unallocated
17
DISTRIBUTION EXPANSION PLAN
ADDIONAL DISTRIBUTION FACILITY
•MV
•LV
•DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER
•ADDITIONAL COSTUMER
UP TO 2019:
: 181,000KMS  16,500 KMS/YEAR
: 249,500KMS  22,700 KMS/YEAR
: 35,000 MVA  3,200 MVA/YEAR
: 27,4 MILION 2,5 MIO/YEAR
18
PLN INVESTMENT
INVESTMENT
PROJECTION UP TO
2019 : USD 64,7
BILLION, INCLUDING
INVESTMENT FOR
LIFE
EXTENSION/REFURBI
SHMENT EXISTING
GENERATION, SPARE
IBT
Juta USD
8,000.0
7,000.0
6,000.0
5,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
2009
Column1
Pembangkit
Transmisi
Distribusi
Total Investasi
2010
2009
3,777.0
1,065.8
598.2
5,441.0
2011
2010
3,495.3
1,985.9
774.4
6,255.6
2012
2013
2011
3,188.3
1,939.7
1,080.4
6,208.4
2014
2012
2,851.1
1,297.4
1,006.8
5,155.3
2015
2013
3,143.0
1,145.7
947.5
5,236.1
2016
2017
2014
2,427.4
1,521.7
987.1
4,936.1
2018
2015
2,854.7
2,072.9
1,165.6
6,093.3
2019
2016
3,548.0
1,227.4
1,185.9
5,961.3
2017
4,270.4
592.2
1,300.2
6,162.8
2018
4,304.7
719.7
1,337.7
6,362.1
2019
4,721.4
851.6
1,304.4
6,877.4
Jumlah
38,581.2
14,419.9
11,688.3
64,689.4
19
PLN + IPP INVESTMENT
Juta USD
INVESTMENT
PROJECTION UP TO
2019 : USD 83,0
BILLION OR USD 7,6
BILLION PER YEAR,
INCLUDING
INVESTMENT FOR LIFE
EXTENSION/REFURBIS
MENT EXISTING
GENERATION, SPARE
IBT
9,000.0
8,000.0
7,000.0
6,000.0
5,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
2009
Column1
Pembangkit
Transmisi
Distribusi
Total Investasi
2010
2009
4,858.0
1,065.8
598.2
6,522.0
2011
2010
5,100.2
1,985.9
774.4
7,860.5
2012
2011
5,099.0
1,939.7
1,080.4
8,119.1
2013
2014
2012
5,369.2
1,297.4
1,006.8
7,673.4
2015
2013
5,810.6
1,145.7
947.5
7,903.8
2016
2014
5,061.4
1,521.7
987.1
7,570.2
2017
2018
2015
4,901.0
2,072.9
1,165.6
8,139.6
2019
2016
5,194.7
1,227.4
1,185.9
7,608.0
2017
5,483.1
592.2
1,300.2
7,375.5
2018
5,026.0
719.7
1,337.7
7,083.4
2019
4,987.8
851.6
1,304.4
7,143.8
Jumlah
56,891.0
14,419.9
11,688.3
82,999.2
20
PLN PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM
PROYEK
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
PLN
On-going dan Committed Project
Muara Karang
PLTGU
Muara Tawar Blok #5
PLTGU
Priok Extension
PLTGU
500
194
234
500
Suralaya #8
PLTU
Labuan
PLTU
Teluk Naga/Lontar
PLTU
945
Pelabuhan Ratu
PLTU
1,050
Indramayu
PLTU
990
Rembang
PLTU
630
Pacitan
PLTU
Paiton Baru
PLTU
Tj. Awar-awar
Cilacap Baru / Adipala
PLTU
PLTU
Sub Total On-going & Committed
Rencana
Upper Cisokan PS
300
300
630
660
700
660
800
3,399
3,359
243
-
PLTA
Muara Tawar Add-On 2,3,4
PLTGU
Jawa Barat (LNG Terminal)
PLTGU
PLTGU Baru
PLTGU
PLTG Baru
PLTG
PLTU Baru
PLTU
Tangkuban Perahu 1
PLTP
Kamojang
PLTP
Kesamben
PLTA
Kalikonto-2
PLTA
Matenggeng PS
PLTA
Grindulu PS
PLTA
Sub Total Rencana
Total PLN
243
625
150
1,360
-
500
500
700
-
-
-
-
350
1,500
750
1,500
400
1,000
600
1,000
800
3,000
110
60
40
37
62
800
3,399
150
3,509
243
760
760
650
2,010
1,500
1,500
1,412
1,412
443
443
500
500
2,380
2,380
3,793
3,793
4,300
4,300
21
IPP PROJECT JAWA-BALI SYSTEM
PROYEK
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
IPP
On-going dan Committed Project
Kamojang #4
PLTP
Darajat #3
PLTP
Wayang Windu
PLTP
110
Bekasi Power
PLTGU
130
Cikarang Listrindo
PLTGU
100
50
Cirebon
PLTU
Paiton #3-4 Exp
PLTU
815
Tanjung Jati B Exp
PLTU
1,320
Celukan Bawang
PLTU
Sub Total On-going & Committed
Rencana
110
Banten
PLTU
Madura (1x400 MW)
PLTU
Bali Timur
PLTU
Sumatera Mulut Tambang
PLTU
PLTU Jawa Tengah (Infrastruktur)
PLTU
PLTP Percepatan Tahap 2 IPP
PLTP
Rajamandala
PLTA
Jatigede
PLTA
Sub Total Rencana
Total IPP
RESERVE MARGIN
MW
%
230
710
130
250
2,265
250
-
-
660
400
200
1,200
-
-
-
175
365
1,000
1,000
785
445
250
47
110
-
Total Tambahan
TOTAL KAPASITAS SISTEM
660
-
-
175
565
1,942
1,845
2,110
110
230
710
2,440
815
1,942
1,845
2,110
910
3,629
4,219
2,683
1,575
3,952
3,345
3,522
22,796
26,030
30,209
32,816
34,391
38,343
41,688
45,210
29
34
41
39
33
36
35
35
22
SUMMARY
For the next 10 years
•
The average electricity demand would grow at 9.3%/year (Jawa-Bali 8.97%,
West Indonesia 10.2% and East Indonesia 10.6%)
•
Total additional generation capacity for Indonesia is 53,219 MW, consists of
32,636 MW of PLN projects and 20,583 MW of IPP projects
•
Development of renewable energy, especially geothermal, is encouraged,
by additional 5,006 MW by 2018
•
Total additional transmission network would reach 44,257 kms for all
voltage levels, and total additional of transformers would be 103,000 MVA
for all voltage levels.
•
Total additional distribution network is 175,013 kms for MV, 222,018 kms for
LV, 30,877 MVA for distribution transformers and 25 million new customer
connections.
23
SUMMARY
• Total investment needed for Gen + Trans + Dis is US$ 64,69 billion
(PLN only) or US$ 82,99 billion (PLN+IPP).
• Investment needed for PLN power plant projects alone is US$
38,581 billion, and for IPP projects is US$ 18,31 billion.
24
SUMMARY
Some strategic generation projects:
• CCGT Muara Tawar Add-on 2, 3, 4, 1,200 MW, commissioned in
2011-2012.
• Fast Track Generation Project 10,000 MW Phase 2 with total
capacity of 11,355 MW year 2011-2014 (this figure might change
due to recent government’s will to promote more geothernal).
• Upper Cisokan Pumped Storage of 4x250 MW in 2014 (WB)
• CFPP Jawa Tengah Infrastruktur (IFC) 2x1,000 MW in 2014-2015.
• CFPP mine mouth in Sumatera 6x600 MW in 2016-2017
(transferred to Java Bali system)
• CCGT LNG Bojanegara 3x750 MW in 2015-2017.
25
SUMMARY
Some strategic transmission projects:
• HVDC transmission between Sumatera and Java in 2016.
• Sub-sea 150 kV Java-Bali circuit 3,4, 2010
• Batam – Bintan interconnected system using sub-sea 150 kV, 2010
• 275 kV transmission connecting West Kalimantan – Serawak in
2011
• 500 kV Java-Bali Crossing from Paiton to Kapal/near Denpasar in
2015
26
PT PLN (PERSERO)
27