Transcript Hog Outlook - Ron Plain - UK College of Agriculture

2011 Midwest/Great Plains & Western Outlook Conference
Hog & Pork
Outlook
Louisville,
August 15-16
Ron Plain
D. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural Economics
University of Missouri-Columbia
http://web.missouri.edu/~plainr/
Annual U.S. Pork Production, 1930-2011
Billion Pounds
25
actual
1.5% trend
20
15
10
2011 U.S. pork production
expected to be on trend
5
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
0
Cost of Production
Source: USDA/NASS
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
$ per bushel
Corn, Average Price Received,
Monthly, 1987-2011
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Cost of Slaughter Hog Production
Iowa State University Calculations, 1987-2011
$ Per Live Cwt
70
65
60
55
50
45
Marketing Month
Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
35
1987
40
Corn Price & Cost of Hog Production
Monthly, 1987-2011
70
7
Hog Cost
Corn $
65
60
6
5
55
50
4
45
3
40
2
35
1
30
Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
0
1987
25
Corn Price & Cost of Hog Production
Monthly, 1987-2011
70
7
Hog Cost
Corn $
65
60
6
5
55
50
4
45
3
40
2
35
1
$6.70 corn implies hog cost at $68/cwt live or $89/cwt car.
30
Source: Shane Ellis, Iowa State University
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
0
1987
25
Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 1997-2011
Iowa State University Calculations
$ Per Head
50
30
10
-10
-30
Source: Shane Ellis, Iowa State University
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
-70
1997
-50
Monthly Profit Per Pig
1997-02
Dollars
2007-11
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Source: Shane Ellis, Iowa State University
02&12
01&11
00&10
99&09
98&08
97&07
-80
Correlation of Profit & Lagged Hog Slght
20
%ChDaHogSlt Lag 5 Qtr
Profit
10
0
10-1
08-1
06-1
04-1
02-1
00-1
98-1
96-1
94-1
92-1
90-1
88-1
86-1
84-1
-20
82-1
-10
International Trade
U.S. Meat Exports, 2000-2011
800000
Tthousand pounds
700000
Beef
Pork
Broiler
Turkey
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jan- Jul
Jul
Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
00
01
02
03
04
JanJan07
08
09
10
11
05
06
U.S. Pork Imports & Exports
5,000
4,500
Imports
Exports
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
0
1980
Million Pounds
4,000
U.S. Pork Imports & Exports, 2000-2011
Mil. lbs.
600
Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent
Imports
500
Exports
400
300
200
100
Jan 11
Jan-10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
Jan-00
0
U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork
Production, 2006-2011
Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent
30
20
15
10
Imports
Exports
5
Apr
Jan 11
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan 10
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan 09
OCT
JUL
APR
Jan 08
OCT
JUL
APR
Jan 07
OCT
JUL
APR
0
Jan 06
% of Production
25
U.S. Pork Exports, 2006-2011
Mil. lbs.
160
Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent
Japan
Russia
140
Canada
S Korea
Mexico
China HK
120
100
80
60
40
20
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
0
Frozen Pork & U.S. Pork Exports, 2000-2011
700
600
Million pounds
500
400
300
200
100
Cold Storage
Exports
0
Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jan- Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
U.S. Hog Imports from Canada
Head per mo.
800,000
Slaughter Hogs
700,000
Feeders Pigs
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0
Meat Demand
U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption
Pounds
Pork
Beef
Turkey
Broilers
Fish
Source: USDA/ERS
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption
Pounds
Source: USDA/ERS
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
Grains, Feed and Residual
Bil. Bushels
8
7
6
DDGS
5
Wheat
4
Oats
3
Barley
2
Sorghum
1
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
Corn
1978
0
Forecast Change in Meat Production
Type
Beef
Pork
Chicken
Turkey
All Meats
--Percent Change-2010-11
2011-12
- 0.7%
- 4.3%
+1.0%
+1.6%
+1.3%
+1.0%
+2.4%
+0.4%
+0.7%
- 0.4%
Source: USDA-OCE WASDE, August 2011
Change in Retail Meat Demand
Base Elasticity = - 0.75
% change from
year ago
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-8
2002 >
May
Sep
2003
May
Sep
2004
May
Sep
2005 >
May
Sep
2006 >
May
Sep
2007>
May
Sep
2008>
May
Sep
2009>
May
Sep
2010>
May
Sep
2011>
May
-4
-6
Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
Change in Pork Demand
% change from
year ago
Base Elasticity = - 0.75
8
3
-2
-12
2002 >
May
Sep
2003
May
Sep
2004
May
Sep
2005 >
May
Sep
2006 >
May
Sep
2007>
May
Sep
2008>
May
Sep
2009>
May
Sep
2010>
May
Sep
2011>
May
-7
Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
Change in Pork Export Demand
Base Elasticity = - 0.5
% change from
year ago
110
90
70
50
30
10
-10
-50
2002 >
May
Sep
2003 >
May
Sep
2004 >
May
Sep
2005 >
May
Sep
2006 >
May
Sep
2007>
May
Sep
2008>
May
Sep
2009>
May
Sep
2010>
May
Sep
2011>
May
-30
Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
Change in Hog Demand
Base Elasticity = - 0.2
% change from
year ago
18
13
8
3
-2
-12
2002 >
May
Sep
2003
May
Sep
2004
May
Sep
2005 >
May
Sep
2006 >
May
Sep
2007>
May
Sep
2008>
May
Sep
2009>
May
Sep
2010>
May
Sep
2011>
May
-7
Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
250
2001 >
May
Sep
2002 >
May
Sep
2003 >
May
Sep
2004 >
May
Sep
2005 >
May
Sep
2006 >
May
Sep
2007 >
May
Sep
2008 >
May
Sep
2009 >
May
Sep
2010 >
May
Sep
2011 >
May
Retail Boneless Pork Prices
Retail Prices, Monthly, 2001-2011
Cents/lb
500
450
Bacon
Source: USDA/ERS
Chops
Ham
400
350
300
Source: U.S. Commerce Department
11-1
10-3
10-1
09-3
09-1
08-3
08-1
07-3
07-1
06-3
06-1
05-3
05-1
Percent Change
Growth in Real GDP
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
U.S. Unemployment Rate,
Seasonally Adjusted, 1996-2011
11
10
8
7
6
5
4
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
3
1996
Percent
9
Average Duration of Unemployment
Current Situation
• The government is broke, unemployment
is high, the stock market has collapsed,
the economy is barely growing, and
consumer confidence is the lowest since
May 1980.
• Needless to say, this is not good for
domestic meat demand.
Inventory Surveys
D
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
99
Thousand Head
U.S. Swine Breeding Herd, 1999-2011
6300
6200
6100
6000
5900
5800
5700
Canadian Swine Breeding Herd, 2000-2011
1700
1650
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
11
Ja
n
10
Ja
n
09
Ja
n
08
Ja
n
07
Ja
n
06
Ja
n
05
Ja
n
04
Ja
n
03
Ja
n
02
Ja
n
01
Ja
n
00
1200
Ja
n
Thousand Head
1600
Hog Inventory Reports
U.S. June
Canada April
All Hogs & Pigs
Kept for Breeding
Kept for Marketing
100.5
100.3
100.6
101.4
99.6
101.6
Under 50 lbs
50-119 lbs.
120-179 lbs.
180 lbs. and over
100.1
99.8
103.3
99.5
101.3
99.5
104.0
Sep-Nov Farrowings
Dec-Feb Farrowings
Mar-May Farrowings
Jun-Aug Farrowing Intentions
Sep-Nov Farrowing Intentions
98.8
99.4
98.2
97.4
98.9
98.6
97.9
100.7
99.8
Hog Inventory Reports
U.S. June
All Hogs & Pigs
Kept for Breeding
Kept for Marketing
Which is
important?
More sows or
fewer litters?
Under 50 lbs
50-119 lbs.
120-179 lbs.
180 lbs. and over
Sep-Nov Farrowings
Dec-Feb Farrowings
Mar-May Farrowings
Jun-Aug Farrowing Intentions
Sep-Nov Farrowing Intentions
Canada April
100.5
100.3
100.6
101.4
99.6
101.6
100.1
99.8
103.3
99.5
101.3
99.5
104.0
98.8
99.4
98.2
97.4
98.9
98.6
97.9
100.7
99.8
Daily Hog Slaughter by Quarter
% change from
yr. ago
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
DJF11
DJF10
DJF09
DJF08
DJF07
DJF06
DJF05
DJF04
DJF03
DJF02
DJF01
DJF00
DJF99
-10
DJF11
DJF10
DJF09
DJF08
DJF07
DJF06
DJF05
DJF04
DJF03
DJF02
DJF01
DJF00
DJF99
Breeding Herd by Quarter
% change from
yr. ago
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Hog Slaughter & Breeding Herd by Quarter
% change from
yr. ago
10
8
Br Herd
D Hog Slt
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Correlation = 0.20
-8
DJF11
DJF10
DJF09
DJF08
DJF07
DJF06
DJF05
DJF04
DJF03
DJF02
DJF01
DJF00
DJF99
-10
DJF11
DJF10
DJF09
DJF08
DJF07
DJF06
DJF05
DJF04
DJF03
DJF02
DJF01
DJF00
DJF99
Sows Farrowed by Quarter
% change from
yr. ago
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Sows Farrowed & Hog Slaughter by Quarter
% change from
yr. ago
10
8
Sows Far
D Hog Slt
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Correlation = 0.78
-8
DJF11
DJF10
DJF09
DJF08
DJF07
DJF06
DJF05
DJF04
DJF03
DJF02
DJF01
DJF00
DJF99
-10
DJF11
DJF10
DJF09
DJF08
DJF07
DJF06
DJF05
DJF04
DJF03
DJF02
DJF01
DJF00
DJF99
U.S. Sows Farrowed by Quarter
% change
from yr. ago
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
JFM11
JFM10
JFM09
JFM08
JFM07
JFM06
JFM05
JFM04
JFM03
JFM02
JFM01
JFM00
JFM99
Canada Sows Farrowed by Quarter
% change
from yr. ago
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
Sows Farrowed-U.S. & Canada Combined
% change
from yr. ago
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
DJF11
DJF10
DJF09
DJF08
DJF07
DJF06
DJF05
DJF04
DJF03
DJF02
DJF01
DJF00
DJF99
-6
Slaughter
Thousand
Head
Weekly F.I. Sow Slaughter
70
2010
2011
65
60
55
50
45
2011 sow slaughter is down 0.2%
Source: USDA/AMS
EC
D
O
V
N
T
O
C
SE
P
UG
A
JU
L
JU
N
Y
M
A
PR
A
R
M
A
FE
B
JA
N
40
Thousand
Head
Slaughter of U.S. Sows
60
2010
2011
55
50
45
40
2011 slaughter of U.S. sows is up 2.8%
Source: USDA/AMS
EC
D
O
V
N
T
O
C
SE
P
UG
A
JU
L
JU
N
Y
M
A
PR
A
R
M
A
FE
B
JA
N
35
Weekly Slaughter of U.S. Sows
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.7
2010
0.6
2011
Source: USDA/AMS & Ron Plain
EC
D
O
V
N
T
O
C
SE
P
UG
A
JU
L
JU
N
Y
M
A
PR
A
R
M
A
FE
B
0.5
JA
N
% of Inventory
1.0
Estimated Gilt Retention & Sow Loss, 2010-11
GG Cattle & Hog Fax
100
80
60
40
Gilts Retained
20
Sow Loss
Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
2011
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
0
2010
Thousand Head Per Week
120
Weekly Hog Slaughter
Millions
2.5
2.4
2009
2010
2011
2.3
2.2
2.1
2
1.9
1.8
Source: USDA/AMS
DE
C
V
NO
T
O
C
SE
P
G
AU
L
JU
N
JU
AY
M
AP
R
AR
M
B
FE
JA
N
1.7
Actual & Predicted Change in B&G Slaughter
U.S. Weekly F.I. Hog Slaughter, 2011
% change from
yr. ago 8
USDA Jun Forecast
Actual
6
4
2
0
-2
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
2011
-4
Hog Slaughter Plant Closings
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
February 2000 AVA Pork-Shamokin, PA
June 2000 Farmland-Dubuque, IA
July 2001 Excel-Marshall, MO
December 2001 AMPAC/Iowa Pork-Chicago, IL
January 2003 Hormel-Rochelle, IL
May 2004 RC Pork-Downs, KS
September 2005 Smithfield-Smithfield, VA
March 2006 Bryan Foods-West Point, MS
January 2009 Meadowbrook-Rantoul, IL
April 2010 Morrell-Sioux City, IA
Triumph plans to build in East Moline, someday
$/head
Gross Hog Packing Margin
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
Source: Ron Plain
Weekly Gross Pork Packer Margin, 200
Pound Carcass
60
$ per Head
50
40
30
20
10
Avg 02-09
2010
2011
0
JAN
APR
JUL
Calculation: Byproduct + Cutout – Negotiated net
OCT
Productivity Growth
U.S. Pigs Per Litter by Quarter
% change
from yr. ago
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
DJF11
DJF10
DJF09
DJF08
DJF07
DJF06
DJF05
DJF04
DJF03
DJF02
DJF01
DJF00
DJF99
-1
Barrow & Gilt Live Weights
Iowa-Minnesota Weekly Average
Pounds
277
2008
275
273
2009
271
269
2010
267
2011
265
263
261
259
Source: USDA/AMS
DE
C
V
NO
T
O
C
SE
P
G
AU
L
JU
N
JU
M
AY
AP
R
M
AR
FE
B
JA
N
257
Barrow & Gilt Live Weights
Iowa-Minnesota Annual Average
Pounds
280
270
Actual
Trend
260
250
240
230
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
220
Weekly Pork Production
500
480
Million Pounds
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
2002-09
2010
2011
300
Jan
Apr
Source: USDA AMS
Jul
Oct
Prices
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
Jan 05
Jan 04
Jan 03
Jan 02
Jan 01
Jan 00
Cents Per Pound
U.S. Retail Pork Prices, 2000-2011
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
Retail Pork Prices
2000-08
2009
2010
2011
350
340
Cents/pound
330
320
310
Record high
300
290
280
270
260
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Source: BLS & USDA/ERS
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Hog Cutout Value, Weekly
$ per cwt.
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Avg.
2004-08
2009
2010
Source: USDA/AMS
T
O
C
JU
L
PR
A
JA
N
2011
Barrow & Gilt Negotiated Base Price
$/cwt
2002-09
2010
2011
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Source: USDA Prior Day Slaughter reports
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$ per cwt.
National Base Slaughter Hog Price,
Weekly
105
100
95
90
Avg.
2004-08
2009
85
80
75
2010
70
2011
65
60
55
50
Source: USDA Prior Day Purchased reports
T
O
C
JU
L
PR
A
JA
N
45
$ per head
10# Early Weaned Pigs, Delivered,
Weekly
60
55
50
40
Avg.
2004-08
2009
35
2010
45
30
2011
25
20
15
Source: USDA/AMS
T
O
C
JU
L
PR
A
JA
N
10
Pork Cutout and Hog Price, Weekly, 2009-2011
120
Cutout
Carcass
110
90
80
70
60
Source: USDA/AMS
Apr
2011
Oct
Jul
Apr
2010
Oct
Jul
Apr
50
2009
$/cwt
100
Hog Base Price as Percent of Pork Cutout, Weekly,
2008-2011
110
105
95
90
85
Source: USDA/AMS
2011
2010
2009
80
2008
Percent
100
My Forecast
Commercial Hog Slaughter Forecast
Million Head
2010
2011
2012
------Change-----10-11
11-12.
Qtr 1
27.630*
27.486*
27.450
- 0.5% - 0.1%
Qtr 2
26.074*
26.113*
26.300
+ 0.2% +0.7%
Qtr 3
26.930*
27.250
27.100
+ 1.2% - 0.5%
Qtr 4
29.626*
29.250
29.980
- 1.3% +2.5%
Year
110.260*
110.099 110.830
- 0.1% +0.7%
Note: Q1 10 & Q4 11 & Q3 12 have only 63 slaughter days
*actual
Iowa-Minn Hog Price Forecast
Negotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight
2009
2010
2011
2012
Qtr 1
$57.23*
$66.81*
$78.95*
$80-84
Qtr 2
$57.32*
$79.04*
$91.80*
$87-91
Qtr 3
$51.43*
$79.44*
$95-98
$86-90
Qtr 4
$54.98*
$65.20*
$80-84
$76-80
Year
$55.23*
$72.67*
$86-88
$82-85
*actual price – prior day purchased
Iowa-Minn Live Hog Price Forecast
Negotiated Live Base Price Equivalent
2009
2010
2011
2012
Qtr 1 $43.49* $50.78* $60.00* $61-64
Qtr 2 $43.56* $60.07* $69.77* $66-69
Qtr 3 $39.09* $60.37* $72-75
$65-68
Qtr 4 $41.78* $49.56* $61-64
$58-61
Year
$62-65
$41.97* $55.19* $66-68
*actual carcass price x 76%
U.S. Hog Net Carcass Price,
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Futures
Jan 07
Jan 05
Jan 04
Jan 03
Cash
Jan 06
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
Jan 02
Dollars Per Cwt
Monthly Average, 2002-2011
Thru Feb 2013 all hog futures contracts are above $80 per cwt
Major Uncertainties
• Domestic meat demand
• Exchange rates & exports
• Feed costs
• Governmental policy
– Bio fuels
– GIPSA
– Animal rights
Any Questions?
Omaha Corn Prices, Weekly, 2008-2011
8
7
5
4
3
Source: USDA/AMS
2011
2010
2009
2
2008
$/Bushel
6
Frozen Pork, 2000-2011, Start of the Month
700
650
Million Pounds
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
Jan JUL Jan JUL Jan JUL Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
U.S. Pork Exports, 2000-2011
Mil. lbs.
Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent
600
500
400
300
200
100
Jan 11
Jan-10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
Jan-00
0
-10
2002
Apr
Jul
Oct
2003
Apr
Jul
Oct
2004
Apr
Jul
Oct
2005
Apr
Jul
Oct
2006
Apr
Jul
Oct
2007
Apr
Jul
Oct
2008
Apr
Jul
Oct
2009
Apr
Jul
Oct
2010
Apr
Jul
Oct
2011
Apr
% Change Year Ago
Change in Domestic Beef Demand
Base Elasticity = -0.75
15
10
5
0
-5
Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
Sows Farrowed & Breeding Herd by Quarter
% change from
yr. ago
10
8
Br Herd
Sows Far
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
DJF11
DJF10
DJF09
DJF08
DJF07
DJF06
DJF05
DJF04
DJF03
DJF02
DJF01
DJF00
DJF99
-10
Sows Farrowed, Breeding Herd & Hog
Slaughter by Quarter
% change from
yr. ago
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
D Hog Slt
Br Herd
Sows Far
-8
DJF11
DJF10
DJF09
DJF08
DJF07
DJF06
DJF05
DJF04
DJF03
DJF02
DJF01
DJF00
DJF99
-10
D
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
10
09
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
99
Thousand Head
U.S. Swine Breeding Herd, 1999-2011
6300
6200
6100
6000
5900
5800
5700
M
09
08
AM
11
AM
10
AM
AM
07
ar
06
ar
05
ar
04
ar
03
ar
02
ar
01
ar
00
AM
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
Thousand Head
U.S. Sows Farrowed, 2000-11
3300
3200
3100
3000
2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
Barrow & Gilt Carcass Weights
U.S. Annual Average
Pounds
210
205
Actual
200
Trend
195
190
185
180
175
170
165
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
160
Barrow & Gilt Negotiated Live Price
$/cwt
80
2004-07
2008
2009
2010
2011
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr May Jun
Source: USDA Prior Day Purchased reports
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct Nov
Dec
MPR Negotiated Carcass Hog Prices, WCB
minus ECB, Weekly, 2009-10
$/cwt
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Source: USDA/AMS Prior Day Purchased
Dec
Sep
Oct
Nov
Jul
Aug
Apr
May
Jun
2010
Feb
Mar
Dec
Nov
Aug
Sep
Oct
May
Jun
Jul
2009
Feb
Mar
Apr
-3
U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-May 2011
Change From Year Ago
Country
000 lbs
Percent
Japan
80,639
14.8%
Mexico
10,799
2.6%
S. Korea
157,270
147.3%
Canada
18,135
10.4%
China & HongKong
49,624
37.4%
Australia
17,748
25.6%
Russia
39,504
125.3%
TOTAL
315,257
17.9%
Source: USDA/ERS
U.S. Hog Imports & Exports
Mil. head
12
Imports
10
Exports
2010 hog imports were down 10%
8
6
4
2
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
0
U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption
Pounds
Source: USDA/ERS
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150