Transcript Slide 1

Ron Plain
April 22, 2015
Source: USDA/ERS
Jan 15
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
Jan 05
Jan 04
Jan 03
Jan 02
Jan 01
Jan 00
U.S. Retail Pork Prices, 2000-2015
Cents Per Pound
450
400
350
300
250
200
Cost of Slaughter Hog Production, 2000-2015
$ Per Live Cwt
80
Actual
75
Forecast
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
Marketing Month
Source: Iowa State University & University of Missouri
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
35
U.S. Hog Imports from Canada
Head per mo.
800,000
Slaughter Hogs
Feeders Pigs
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Source: USDA/ERS
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0
U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S.
Pork Production, 2006-2015
% of
Production
30
Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent
25
20
15
Imports
10
Exports
5
Jan 06
APR
JUL
OCT
Jan 07
APR
JUL
OCT
Jan 08
APR
JUL
OCT
Jan 09
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 10
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 11
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 12
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 13
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 14
Apr
Jul
Oct
2015
0
Source: USDA/ERS
250
200
0
4-15
5-06
5-27
6-16
7-07
7-28
8-18
9-08
9-29
10-20
11-10
12-01
12-22
01-12
02-02
02-23
03-16
04-06
04-27
05-18
06-08
06-29
07-20
08-10
08-31
09-21
10-12
11-02
11-23
12-14
01/04
01/25
02/15
03/08
New PEDV & PDCoV Cases by Week
NAHLN Reports
New Cases
350
300
PDCoV
PEDV
150
100
50
2013-2015 Week Ending
Source: AASV & NAHLN
U.S. Pigs per Litter by Month
Head
10.6
10.4
Pigs per litter:
10.2
Dec-Feb 14: - 5.5%
10
Dec-Feb 15: +6.7%
9.8
9.6
9.4
9.2
9
Source: USDA/NASS
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
8.6
2003
8.8
Barrow & Gilt Live Weights
Iowa-Minnesota Weekly Average
Pounds
290
2013
285
2014
280
record
2015
275
270
2014 average was 284.4 lbs, up 8.5 lbs from 2013
Source: USDA/AMS
DE
C
V
NO
CT
O
SE
P
G
AU
L
JU
N
JU
AY
M
AP
R
AR
M
FE
B
JA
N
265
Thou. Head
2400
HOG SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
2300
2200
2100
2000
1900
2014 hog slt - 4.6%
2015 YTD slt + 6.8%
1800
1700
1600
JAN
APR
Avg. 2009-13
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
JUL
2014
OCT
2015
H-S-05
04/17/15
March Hog Inventory
All Hogs & Pigs
Kept for Breeding
Kept for Marketing
107.2
102.2
107.7
Under 50 lbs
50-119 lbs.
120-179 lbs.
180 lbs. and over
109.4
106.6
106.0
108.9
Jun-Aug Farrowings
Sep-Nov Farrowings
Dec-Feb Farrowings
Mar-May Farrowing Intentions
Jun-Aug Farrowing Intentions
103.5
103.3
102.4
102.1
97.9
Source: USDA - NASS
-6
Source: USDA/NASS
DJF15
DJF14
DJF13
DJF12
DJF11
DJF10
DJF09
DJF08
DJF07
DJF06
DJF05
DJF04
DJF03
DJF02
DJF01
DJF00
DJF99
Sows Farrowed by Quarter - U.S.
% change
from yr. ago
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
$ Per Cwt.
135
BARROW AND GILT PRICES
Iowa – So. Minnesota, Carcass Base Price, Weekly
125
115
105
95
85
75
65
55
45
JAN
APR
JUL
Avg. 2009-13
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
OCT
2014
2015
H-P-09
04/13/15
Commercial Pork Production Forecast
Million Pounds
2013
2014
2015
------ Change -----2013-14 2014-15
Qtr 1
5,777
5,785
6,155
+ 0.1% + 6.4%
Qtr 2
5,519
5,504
5,720*
- 0.3% + 3.9%
Qtr 3
5,622
5,423
5,915*
- 3.6%
+ 9.1%
Qtr 4
6,274
6,132
6,450*
- 2.3%
+ 5.2%
Year
23,187
22,844
24,240*
- 1.5%
+ 6.1%
*Forecast
Source: USDA - OCE
Iowa-Minn. Hog Price Forecast
Negotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight
2012
2013
2014
2015
Qtr 1
$84.78
$80.17
$ 95.15
$64.10
Qtr 2
$85.45
$89.33
$115.67
$68-72*
Qtr 3
$83.15
$95.37
$111.79
$68-72*
Qtr 4
$79.93
$82.36
$ 88.65
$62-66*
Year
$83.36
$86.87
$102.83
$66-70*
*Forecast price – prior day purchased
Net Slaughter Hog Price,
Monthly Average 2002-2015
Dollars per cwt.
150
Cash
Futures
130
110
90
70
Jan 16
Jan 15
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
Jan 05
Jan 04
Jan 03
30
Jan 02
50
Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 2006-2015
Iowa State University Calculations
$ Per Head
100
Actual
Forecast
80
60
40
20
0
-20
Forecast Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
-60
2006
-40