Transcript Slide 1

April 22, 2015
University of Missouri Extension
Pat Guinan
April 22, 2015
2015 was warmest first quarter (Jan-Mar) for globe since
records began in 1880…
Missouri Climate Center/NOAA
Mild April in the Great Plains & Midwest…
Average Temperature Departure from Mean (°F)
April 1-20, 2015
+3-4°
+4-5°
+6-7°
+5-6°
MRCC
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/
50-55°F
55-60°F
60-65°F
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/mesonets/soilTemp.html
Generally wet April with pockets of dryness…
Accumulated Precipitation (in.)
Apr 1 – Apr 21, 2015
Accumulated Precipitation (in.)
Departure from Mean
Apr 1 – Apr 21, 2015
MRCC
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/
MRCC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
7-day precipitation forecast beginning
7:00 p.m., Tue, Apr. 21 thru 7:00 p.m., Tue, Apr 28, 2015
.25
0.5
1
0.5
1
1.5
3 2
.25 0.5
6-10 Day
Temperature Outlook
Apr 27- May 1, 2015
6-10 Day
Precipitation Outlook
Apr 27- May 1, 2015
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
David Reinbott
April 22, 2015
Issues Impacting Prices on April 22
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Strong U.S. dollar
Planting progress – 9% vs. 13%
Acres planted – change of 1- 2 million
Large world stocks
Growing S.A. crop
Avian bird flu
Grain sorghum acres up
2015 Grain Sorghum Budget
2015
Cost &
Returns
Adequate
Without
Sugarcane Adequate
Sugarcane
Aphid
Aphid
Control
Control
2015
Cost &
Returns
Corn
Revenue
A
Estimated Yield (Bu/Acre)
B
Estimated Price ($/Bushel)
Estimated Gross Revenue ($/Acre)
110
110
82.5
150
$4.60
$506.00
$4.60
$506.00
$4.60
$379.50
$3.70
$555.00
$ 328.06
$ 340.54
$ 334.29
$ 453.29
47.00
17.00
$ 392.06
47.00
17.00
$ 404.54
51.70
17.00
$ 402.99
52.00
17.00
$ 522.29
$177.95
$113.95
$165.46
$101.46
$45.21
($23.49)
$101.71
$32.71
Variable CostC
Total Variable Cost
Fixed Costs
I
Fixed Machinery Cost
Fixed Buildings & Bins Cost
Total Costs (Excluding Land)
Estimated Returns
Returns Above Variable Costs
Returns Above Total Costs
Weekly U.S. Dollar Futures
1 Million
less acres
Corn Balance Sheet
U.S. Corn: Supply & Use
2014/15
New Crop
2015/16
New Crop New Crop
2015/16 2015/16
Planted Acres
Harvested Acres
90.6
83.1
89.2
81.7
88.2
88.2
80.8
80.8
Yield
171
164
166
170
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total supply
1,232
14,216
25
15,473
1,828
13,399
25
15,252
1,828
13,411
25
15,264
1,828
13,735
20
15,583
Feed & Residual
Food, Seed, & Industrial
Ethanol
Total Domestic
Export
Total use
5,250
6,595
5,200
11,845
1,800
13,645
5,350
6,635
5,225
11,985
1,820
13,805
5,350
6,635
5,225
11,985
1,825
13,810
5,350
6,635
5,225
11,985
1,825
13,810
Ending Stocks
Stocks/Use
Ave Farm Price
1,828
13.4%
$3.70
1,447
10.5%
$4.25
1,454
10.5%
$4.10
1,773
12.8%
$3.80
2015 - 16 Corn Ending Stocks Projections Matrix
USDA 2015-16 Est. Beginning Stocks
USDA Estimated 2015-16 Demand
1.827 Billion Bushels
13.81 Billion Bushels
Import 0.025 Billion Bushels
Yield per Acre
Planted Harvested
Acres
Acres
154
86.7
79.5
0.284
87.2
79.9
0.354
87.7
80.4
0.425
88.2
80.8
0.496
88.7
81.3
0.566
89.2
81.8
0.637
89.7
82.2
0.707
90.2
82.7
0.778
90.7
83.1
0.848
91.2
83.6
0.919
91.7
84.0
0.990
156
0.443
0.514
0.586
0.657
0.729
0.800
0.872
0.943
1.015
1.086
1.158
158
0.602
0.674
0.747
0.819
0.891
0.964
1.036
1.109
1.181
1.253
1.326
160
0.761
0.834
0.907
0.981
1.054
1.127
1.201
1.274
1.347
1.421
1.494
162
0.920
0.994
1.068
1.142
1.217
1.291
1.365
1.439
1.514
1.588
1.662
164
1.079
1.154
1.229
1.304
1.379
1.454
1.529
1.605
1.680
1.755
1.830
165
1.158
1.234
1.309
1.385
1.460
1.536
1.612
1.687
1.763
1.838
1.914
166
1.237
1.314
1.390
1.466
1.542
1.618
1.694
1.770
1.846
1.922
1.998
167
1.317
1.393
1.470
1.546
1.623
1.700
1.776
1.853
1.929
2.006
2.082
168
1.396
1.473
1.550
1.627
1.704
1.781
1.858
1.935
2.012
2.089
2.166
169
1.476
1.553
1.631
1.708
1.786
1.863
1.940
2.018
2.095
2.173
2.250
Corn Yield 1960 - 2014
Bu./ac.
180.0
175.0
170.0
165.0
160.0
155.0
150.0
145.0
140.0
135.0
130.0
125.0
120.0
115.0
110.0
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
80.0
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
55.0
50.0
Yield
Linear (Yield)
171.0
164.7
160.4
158.8
153.9152.8
150.7
149.1
148.0
147.2
142.2
138.6
138.2
136.9
134.4
133.8
131.5
129.3
127.1
126.7
123.1
119.8
119.4
118.5
118
116.3
113.5
113.2
109.5108.9
108.6
106.7
101.0
100.7
97.0
85.8
88.1
91.2
91
90.8
87.9
86.3
74.0
73.1
84.6
81.1
80.1
79.5
72.3
71.8
67.8
64.6 62.9
62.4
2014/2015
2012/2013
2010/2011
2008/2009
2006/2007
2004/2005
2002/2003
2000/2001
1998/1999
1996/1997
1994/1995
1992/1993
1990/1991
1988/1989
1986/1987
1984/1985
1982/1983
1980/1981
1978/1979
1976/1977
1974/1975
1972/1973
1970/1971
1968/1969
1966/1967
1964/1965
1962/1963
1960/1961
54.6
United States Corn Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use
Million Bushels
Ending Stocks
2,200
2,100
25.0%
Ending Stocks/Use
2,000
1,900
1,800
20.0%
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
15.0%
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
10.0%
800
700
600
500
5.0%
400
300
200
100
14-15
13-14
12-13
11-12
10-11
09-10
08-09
07-08
06-07
05-06
04-05
03-04
02-03
01-02
00-01
99-00
98-99
97-98
96-97
95-96
94-95
0.0%
93-94
0
0
14-15
13-14
12-13
11-12
10-11
09-10
08-09
07-08
06-07
05-06
04-05
03-04
02-03
01-02
00-01
99-00
98-99
97-98
96-97
95-96
94-95
93-94
United States Corn Exports
Million Bushels
2,500
2,250
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
World Corn Ending Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use
Million Metric Tons
210
35%
200
Ending Stocks
190
Ending Stocks to Use
30%
180
170
25%
160
150
20%
140
130
15%
120
110
10%
100
90
5%
80
70
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
0%
1996/97
60
World Coarse Grain and Wheat Ending Stocks & Ending
Stocks\Use
35%
Ending Stocks
Ending Stocks to Use
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
0%
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
Million Metric Tons
470
450
430
410
390
370
350
330
310
290
270
250
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
South America Corn Production and Exports
Million Metric Tons
130.0
120.0
Production
Exports
Dom. Use
ES
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
0.0
1996/97
10.0
China Corn Production and Domestic Consumption
Million Metric Tons
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
Dom Cons.
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
Production
1996/97
230.0
220.0
210.0
200.0
190.0
180.0
170.0
160.0
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0
2014/2015
2013/2014
2012/2013
Domestic Consumption
2011/2012
2010/2011
2009/2010
2008/2009
2007/2008
Production
2006/2007
2005/2006
2004/2005
2003/2004
2002/2003
2001/2002
2000/2001
World Grain Sorghum
Million Metric Tons
80
Exports
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2014/2015
2013/2014
2012/2013
2011/2012
Domestic Consumption
2010/2011
2009/2010
2008/2009
2007/2008
Production
2006/2007
2005/2006
2004/2005
11
2003/2004
2002/2003
2001/2002
2000/2001
China Grain Sorghum
Million Metric Tons
12
Imports
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
May 2015 Corn Futures
December 2015 Corn Futures
Cattle Outlook (title)
Ron Plain
April 22, 2015
Retail Choice Beef Prices, Monthly
Cents per Pound
700
650
10 monthly records in 2014
600
550
500
450
400
350
Source: USDA/ERS
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
250
2000
300
U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption
Pounds
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
Source: USDA/ERS
2015f
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
150
U. S. Calf Crop, 1945-2014
Million Head
60
2014: 33.9 million head, up 0.5%
First increase since 1995
55
50
45
40
Source: USDA/NASS
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
30
1945
35
U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S.
Production, monthly
Percent
20
18
Imports
16
Exports
14
12
10
8
6
4
Source: USDA/ERS
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0
2003
2
Dollar Exchange Rate
USDA expects 2015 meat exports to be down 6% and
meat imports to be up 4% compared to 2014.
CATTLE SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
725
675
625
575
525
475
2014 cattle slaughter was down 6.9%
2015 year-to-date is down 6.0%
425
375
JAN
APR
JUL
Avg. 2009-13
OCT
2014
2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-S-08
04/17/15
Pounds
910
STEER DRESSED WEIGHT
Federally Inspected, Weekly
2014 steer dressed weight was up 1.0%
2015 year-to-date weight is up 1.6%
900
890
880
870
860
850
840
830
820
810
JAN
APR
JUL
Avg. 2009-13
OCT
2014
2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-S-18
04/17/15
Thou. Head
150
140
TOTAL COW SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
2014 cow slaughter was down 13.8%
2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
JAN
APR
JUL
Avg. 2009-13
OCT
2014
2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-S-14
04/17/15
HEIFER SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
200
180
160
140
2014 heifer slaughter was down 7.9%
2015 year-to-date is down 5.9%
120
100
JAN
APR
JUL
Avg. 2009-13
OCT
2014
2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
C-S-13
04/17/15
Cattle on Feed
Mil. Head
12.0
Large U.S. Feedlots, Monthly
Mar 1 cattle on feed:
down 0.5%
11.5
2012
11.0
2013
10.5
2014
10.0
2015
9.5
JAN
FEB MAR APR MAY JUN
JUL
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
$ Per Cwt.
185
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES
5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly
175
165
155
145
135
125
115
105
95
85
JAN
APR
JUL
Avg. 2009-13
OCT
2014
2015
Data Source: USDA-AMS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
04/13/15
Choice Steer Breakeven Price
S. Plains Cattle Feedlots, Monthly
$ Per Cwt.
195
Breakeven
Projected Breakeven
175
155
Cost of Gain is roughly $73/cwt.
135
115
Source: LMIC
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
75
2004
95
U.S. Commercial Beef Production
Million Pounds
Qtr 1
2013
2014
2015
6,172
5,868
5,660
----- % Change ----2013-14 2014-15.
- 4.9% - 3.5%
.
Qtr 2
6,516
6,183
6,240*
- 5.1% +0.9%
.
Qtr 3
6,609
6,178
6,210*
- 6.4% +0.5%
.
Qtr 4
6,423
6,023
6,100*
- 6.2% +1.3%
.
Year
25,720 24,252
24,210*
*forecast
- 5.7% - 0.2%
5 Area Slaughter Steer Prices
Choice Steers Per Live Hundredweight
2012
2013
2014
2015
Qtr 1
$125.29
$125.52
$146.34
$162.43
Qtr 2
$121.91
$124.95
$147.82
$162-168*
Qtr 3
$119.69
$122.30
$158.49
$157-169*
Qtr 4
$125.54
$130.77
$165.60
$157-171*
Year
$122.86
$125.89
$154.56
$160-167*
*forecast
Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price,
Monthly Average 2000-2015
Dollars per Cwt.
180
Cash
160
Futures
140
120
100
80
Jan 16
Jan 15
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
Jan 05
Jan 04
Jan 03
Jan 02
Jan 01
Jan 00
60
OKC 750-800# Feeder Steer Price,
Monthly Average 2000-2015
Dollars per Cwt.
250
Cash
230
Futures
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
Jan 16
Jan 15
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
Jan 05
Jan 04
Jan 03
Jan 02
Jan 01
Jan 00
70
Estimated Average Cow Calf Returns
Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual
$ Per Cow
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
David Reinbott
April 22, 2015
Issues Impacting Prices on April 22
•
•
•
•
•
Record acres and production
U.S. acres – plus 1 – 2 million acres
U.S. exports
Large S.A. crop
Large world stocks
1 Million
more
acres
Soybean Balance Sheet
U.S. Soybean: Supply & Use
2014/15
New Crop
2015/16
New Crop New Crop
2015/16 2015/16
Planted Acres
Harvested Acres
83.7
83.1
84.6
83.8
85.6
85.6
84.7
84.7
Yield
47.8
44.6
44.6
46.0
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total supply
92
3,972
30
4,094
370
3,737
20
4,127
370
3,780
20
4,170
370
3,898
20
4,288
Crush
Seed & Feed
Export
Total use
1,795
136
1,790
3,721
1,800
120
1,800
3,720
1,800
120
1,825
3,745
1,800
120
1,825
3,745
373
10.0%
$10.10
407
11.0%
$9.75
425
11.3%
$9.50
543
14.5%
$8.50
Ending Stocks
Stocks/Use
Ave Farm Price
2015 - 16 Soybean Ending Stocks Projections Matrix
USDA 2015-16 Est. Beginning Stocks
Estimated 2015-16 Demand
0.37 Billion Bushels
3.72 Billion Bushels
Import 0.020 Billion Bushels
Yield per Acre
Planted Harvested
Acres
Acres
42.1 42.6 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.1 46.6
82.1
81.3
0.092 0.132 0.173 0.214 0.254 0.295 0.336 0.376 0.417 0.458
82.6
81.8
0.113 0.154 0.194 0.235 0.276 0.317 0.358 0.399 0.440 0.481
83.1
82.3
0.134 0.175 0.216 0.257 0.298 0.339 0.380 0.421 0.463 0.504
83.6
82.8
0.154 0.196 0.237 0.279 0.320 0.361 0.403 0.444 0.485 0.527
84.1
83.3
0.175 0.217 0.258 0.300 0.342 0.383 0.425 0.467 0.508 0.550
84.6
83.8
0.196 0.238 0.280 0.322 0.364 0.405 0.447 0.489 0.531 0.573
85.1
84.2
0.217 0.259 0.301 0.343 0.385 0.428 0.470 0.512 0.554 0.596
85.6
84.7
0.238 0.280 0.322 0.365 0.407 0.450 0.492 0.534 0.577 0.619
86.1
85.2
0.259 0.301 0.344 0.386 0.429 0.472 0.514 0.557 0.600 0.642
86.6
85.7
0.279 0.322 0.365 0.408 0.451 0.494 0.537 0.579 0.622 0.665
87.1
86.2
0.300 0.343 0.386 0.430 0.473 0.516 0.559 0.602 0.645 0.688
47.1
0.498
0.522
0.545
0.568
0.591
0.615
0.638
0.661
0.685
0.708
0.731
44.0
43.5
2014-15
39.7
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
43.042.9
42.2
41.7
2010-11
39.6
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
41.4
2005-06
34.134.2
2004-05
38.1
2003-04
38.938.9
2002-03
37.6
2001-02
2000-01
1999-00
1998-99
37.6
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
32.3
1994-95
1993-94
1992-93
34.1
33.9
33.3
1991-92
1990-91
1989-90
1988-89
1987-88
1986-87
1985-86
26.5
1984-85
32.1
1983-84
1982-83
1981-82
49
48
47
46
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
1980-81
1979-80
Soybean Yields 1979 - 2014
Bu./acre
Yield
47.8
Linear (Yield)
44.0
41.9
40.0
38.0
36.6
35.3
33.9
32.6
31.5
30.1
28.1
26.2
27.0
Soybean Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use
Million Bushels
600
20%
575
Ending Stocks
550
18%
Ending Stocks to Use
525
500
16%
475
450
425
14%
400
375
12%
350
325
10%
300
275
250
8%
225
200
6%
175
150
125
4%
100
75
2%
50
25
0%
13-14
12-13
11-12
10-11
09-10
08-09
07-08
06-07
05-06
04-05
03-04
02-03
01-02
00-01
99-00
98-99
97-98
96-97
95-96
94-95
93-94
0
Mil. Bu.
United States Soybean Exports
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
88- 89- 90- 91- 92- 93- 94- 95- 96- 97- 98- 99- 00- 01- 02- 03- 04- 05- 06- 07- 08- 09- 10- 11- 12- 13- 1489 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
World Soybean Ending Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use
Million Metric Tons
95
35%
90
Ending Stocks
85
30%
Ending Stocks to Use
80
75
70
25%
65
60
55
20%
50
45
15%
40
35
30
10%
25
20
15
5%
10
5
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
0%
1996/97
0
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
Production
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
325
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
World Soybean Production and Use
Million Bushels
350
Domestic Consumption
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
China Soybean Production, Domestic Use and Imports
Million Metric Tons
95
90
Production
85
Domestic Use
Imports
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
0
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
South America Soybean Production
Million Metric Tons
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2015 May Soybeans
2015 November Soybeans
Ron Plain
April 22, 2015
Source: USDA/ERS
Jan 15
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
Jan 05
Jan 04
Jan 03
Jan 02
Jan 01
Jan 00
U.S. Retail Pork Prices, 2000-2015
Cents Per Pound
450
400
350
300
250
200
Cost of Slaughter Hog Production, 2000-2015
$ Per Live Cwt
80
Actual
75
Forecast
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
Marketing Month
Source: Iowa State University & University of Missouri
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
35
U.S. Hog Imports from Canada
Head per mo.
800,000
Slaughter Hogs
Feeders Pigs
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Source: USDA/ERS
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0
U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S.
Pork Production, 2006-2015
% of
Production
30
Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent
25
20
15
Imports
10
Exports
5
Jan 06
APR
JUL
OCT
Jan 07
APR
JUL
OCT
Jan 08
APR
JUL
OCT
Jan 09
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 10
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 11
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 12
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 13
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan 14
Apr
Jul
Oct
2015
0
Source: USDA/ERS
250
200
0
4-15
5-06
5-27
6-16
7-07
7-28
8-18
9-08
9-29
10-20
11-10
12-01
12-22
01-12
02-02
02-23
03-16
04-06
04-27
05-18
06-08
06-29
07-20
08-10
08-31
09-21
10-12
11-02
11-23
12-14
01/04
01/25
02/15
03/08
New PEDV & PDCoV Cases by Week
NAHLN Reports
New Cases
350
300
PDCoV
PEDV
150
100
50
2013-2015 Week Ending
Source: AASV & NAHLN
U.S. Pigs per Litter by Month
Head
10.6
10.4
Pigs per litter:
10.2
Dec-Feb 14: - 5.5%
10
Dec-Feb 15: +6.7%
9.8
9.6
9.4
9.2
9
Source: USDA/NASS
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
8.6
2003
8.8
Barrow & Gilt Live Weights
Iowa-Minnesota Weekly Average
Pounds
290
2013
285
2014
280
record
2015
275
270
2014 average was 284.4 lbs, up 8.5 lbs from 2013
Source: USDA/AMS
DE
C
V
NO
CT
O
SE
P
G
AU
L
JU
N
JU
AY
M
AP
R
AR
M
FE
B
JA
N
265
Thou. Head
2400
HOG SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
2300
2200
2100
2000
1900
2014 hog slt - 4.6%
2015 YTD slt + 6.8%
1800
1700
1600
JAN
APR
Avg. 2009-13
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
Livestock Marketing Information Center
JUL
2014
OCT
2015
H-S-05
04/17/15
March Hog Inventory
All Hogs & Pigs
Kept for Breeding
Kept for Marketing
107.2
102.2
107.7
Under 50 lbs
50-119 lbs.
120-179 lbs.
180 lbs. and over
109.4
106.6
106.0
108.9
Jun-Aug Farrowings
Sep-Nov Farrowings
Dec-Feb Farrowings
Mar-May Farrowing Intentions
Jun-Aug Farrowing Intentions
103.5
103.3
102.4
102.1
97.9
Source: USDA - NASS
-6
Source: USDA/NASS
DJF15
DJF14
DJF13
DJF12
DJF11
DJF10
DJF09
DJF08
DJF07
DJF06
DJF05
DJF04
DJF03
DJF02
DJF01
DJF00
DJF99
Sows Farrowed by Quarter - U.S.
% change
from yr. ago
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
$ Per Cwt.
135
BARROW AND GILT PRICES
Iowa – So. Minnesota, Carcass Base Price, Weekly
125
115
105
95
85
75
65
55
45
JAN
APR
JUL
Avg. 2009-13
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
OCT
2014
2015
H-P-09
04/13/15
Commercial Pork Production Forecast
Million Pounds
2013
2014
2015
------ Change -----2013-14 2014-15
Qtr 1
5,777
5,785
6,155
+ 0.1% + 6.4%
Qtr 2
5,519
5,504
5,720*
- 0.3% + 3.9%
Qtr 3
5,622
5,423
5,915*
- 3.6%
+ 9.1%
Qtr 4
6,274
6,132
6,450*
- 2.3%
+ 5.2%
Year
23,187
22,844
24,240*
- 1.5%
+ 6.1%
*Forecast
Source: USDA - OCE
Iowa-Minn. Hog Price Forecast
Negotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight
2012
2013
2014
2015
Qtr 1
$84.78
$80.17
$ 95.15
$64.10
Qtr 2
$85.45
$89.33
$115.67
$68-72*
Qtr 3
$83.15
$95.37
$111.79
$68-72*
Qtr 4
$79.93
$82.36
$ 88.65
$62-66*
Year
$83.36
$86.87
$102.83
$66-70*
*Forecast price – prior day purchased
Net Slaughter Hog Price,
Monthly Average 2002-2015
Dollars per cwt.
150
Cash
Futures
130
110
90
70
Jan 16
Jan 15
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
Jan 05
Jan 04
Jan 03
30
Jan 02
50
Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 2006-2015
Iowa State University Calculations
$ Per Head
100
Actual
Forecast
80
60
40
20
0
-20
Forecast Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
-60
2006
-40
David Reinbott
April 22, 2015
Issues Impacting Prices on April 22
• Plains drought/rain
• World ending stocks going up
Feb-15
Apr-15
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Oct-11
Dec-11
Thousand Contracts
Wheat Managed Money (Spec Funds)
Net Position
Wheat Balance Sheet
U.S. Wheat: Supply & Use
2014/15
New Crop
2015/16
Planted Acres
Harvested Acres
56.8
46.4
55.4
46.9
Change
-1.4
0.5
Yield
43.7
45.4
1.70
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total supply
590
2,026
145
2,761
691
2,130
150
2,971
101
104
5
210
Feed
Food, Seed, & Industrial
Total Domestic
Export
Total use
160
1,037
1,197
880
2,077
165
1,045
1,210
1,000
2,210
5
8
13
120
133
684
32.9%
$6.05
761
34.4%
$5.40
77
1.5%
-$0.65
Ending Stocks
Stocks/Use
Ave Farm Price
Wheat Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use
Million Bushels
60%
1,050
1,000
Ending Stocks
950
Ending Stocks/Use
900
50%
850
800
750
40%
700
650
600
550
30%
500
450
400
20%
350
300
250
200
10%
150
100
50
0%
0
9394
9495
9596
9697
9798
9899
9900
0001
0102
0203
0304
0405
0506
0607
0708
0809
0910
1011
1112
1213
1314
1415
World Wheat Ending Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use
Million Metric Tons
220
40%
Ending Stocks
210
Ending Stocks to Use
35%
200
190
30%
180
170
25%
160
150
20%
140
15%
130
120
10%
110
100
5%
90
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
0%
1996/97
80
2015 July Wheat
Joe Horner
April 22, 2015
Dairy Outlook in a Nutshell
• Supply Neutral
–
–
–
–
US cow numbers – rising slowly 1.1% (Feb 2015 year over year)
US milk per cow – rising 0.6% (Feb 2015 year over year)
US milk production – rising 1.7% (Feb 2015 year over year)
California drought constraining 1/5 milk (-3.8% Feb 2015 year over year)
• Demand Neutral
– Domestic – Spring flush moving supply to storage
– Exports – Strong dollar hurting exports vs. NZ & EU
– Global – Chinese and Middle Eastern weakness
• Outlook Better than feared
– Margins pressured, but milk price hasn’t collapsed
– Cull cow prices vs. milk prices dictate length of low prices
Stocks – Rising
Bullish
Neutral
Bearish
Bearish
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/pages/content/farmBill/fb_MPPDTool.jsp
Dairy Price Outlook
USDA – All Milk Price
February 17, 2015
MO Farm Forecast
1st Half
2015
2nd Half
2015
2015
$16.00 - $17.00
$17.05 - $19.30
$17.05 -$17.65
$18.25
$19.00
$18.50