Transcript Slide 1

January 21, 2015
University of Missouri Extension
David Reinbott
January 21, 2015
U.S Corn Production, 1994 to 2014
January Corn Production Estimate Minus
November Forecast 2005/06 to 2014/15
U.S. Average Corn Yield, 1960 to 2014
January Corn Yield Estimate Minus November
Forecast 2005/06 to 2014/15
Jan 15 FSA update
86,504 +219 th
4,093
95.48%
December 1 Corn Stocks, 2005/06 to 2014/15
First Quarter Feed and Residual Use of Corn
2005/06 to 2014/15
First Quarter Corn Consumption Minus Trade Guess
2005/06 to 2014/15
Ending Stocks of U.S. Corn
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
180
2006/07
190
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
Million Metric Tons
World Corn Ending Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use
210
35%
200
Ending Stocks
30%
170
Ending Stocks to Use
25%
160
150
140
20%
130
120
15%
110
100
10%
90
80
5%
70
60
0%
Corn Balance Sheet
Planted Acreage (mil.)
Harvested Acreage
Yield (bu/ac.)
2015-16
2014-15
FAPRI
2015-16
90.6
87.9
88.6
83.1
80.3
80.9
171
165
165
Production (mil. bu.)
Beginning stocks
Imports
14,216
1,232
25
13,250
1,883
25
13,350
1,877
20
Total
15,472
15,158
15,247
1,750
5,275
5,175
1,395
1,775
5,146
5,175
1,410
1,850
5,400
5,175
1,400
13,595
13,506
13,825
Ending stocks
1,877
1,652
1,422
Average price
$3.65
$3.81
$4.10
Export (mil. bu.)
Feed and residual
Ethanol
Other Processing
Total
March 2015 Corn Futures
December 2015 Corn Futures
Cattle Outlook (title)
Ron Plain
January 21, 2015
Retail Choice Beef Prices, Monthly
700
Cents per Pound
650
600
10 monthly records in 2014
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: USDA/ERS
Source: USDA/ERS
2015f
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
200
190
180
170
160
150
1945
Pounds
250
240
230
220
210
U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption
U.S. Calf Crop, 1945-2014
60
Million Head
55
2014: 33.6 million head, down 1.0%
Smallest calf crop since 1948
50
45
40
35
30
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: USDA/NASS
U.S. Beef Imports & Exports as % of U.S.
Production, monthly
Percent
20
18
Imports
Exports
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
Source: USDA/ERS
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0
2003
2
CATTLE SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
700
Avg.
200812
650
600
2013
550
500
2014 cattle slaughter was down 6.9%
450
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
T
C
O
JU
L
AP
R
JA
N
400
2014
STEER DRESSED WEIGHT
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Pounds
930
2014 steer dressed weight up 1.0%
910
Avg.
200812
890
870
2013
850
830
2014
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
T
C
O
JU
L
AP
R
JA
N
810
TOTAL COW SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
150
140
Avg.
200812
130
120
110
2013
100
90
80
2014 cow slaughter was down 13.8%
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
CT
O
JU
L
AP
R
JA
N
70
2014
HEIFER SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
210
200
Avg.
200812
190
180
170
2013
160
150
140
2014 heifer slaughter is down 7.9%
130
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
T
C
O
JU
L
AP
R
JA
N
120
2014
Female Share of Slaughter
U.S. Federally Inspected Cattle Slaughter
54
2012
2013
2014
52
50
48
46
44
42
Source: USDA/AMS
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Au
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
40
Jan
2014 female sltr was down 10.3%; male sltr down 3.8%
Cattle on Feed
Large U.S. Feedlots, Monthly
Mil. Head
12.0
Dec 1 cattle on feed: up 1.4%
2012
11.5
2013
11.0
10.5
2014
10.0
9.5
JAN
FEB MAR APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES
5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly
$ Per Cwt.
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
JAN
Avg.
200812
2013
2014
APR
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS
JUL
OCT
Choice Steer Breakeven Price
S. Plains Cattle Feedlots, Monthly
$ Per Cwt
195
Breakeven
Projected Breakeven
175
155
Cost of Gain is roughly $73/cwt.
135
115
95
75
2004
2005
Source: LMIC
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
U.S. Commercial Beef Production
Million Pounds
----- % Change -----
Qtr 1
2013
2014
2015
2013-14
6,172
5,868
5,685*
- 4.9% - 5.8%
2014-15.
.
Qtr 2
6,516
6,183
6,225*
- 5.1% - 1.3%
.
Qtr 3
6,609
6,178
5,955*
- 6.4% - 0.9%
.
Qtr 4
6,423
6,020
5,965*
- 4.7% - 1.4%
.
Year
25,720
24,249
23,830*
*forecast
- 5.3% - 2.3%
5 Area Slaughter Steer Prices
Choice Steers Per Live Hundredweight
2012
2013
2014
2015
Qtr 1
$125.29
$125.52
$146.34
$162-168*
Qtr 2
$121.91
$124.95
$147.82
$160-172*
Qtr 3
$119.69
$122.30
$158.49
$157-171*
Qtr 4
$125.54
$130.77
$165.62
$158-172*
Year
$122.86
$125.89
$154.56
$159-171*
*forecast
Jan 16
Jan 15
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Cash
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
Jan 05
Jan 04
Jan 03
Jan 02
Jan 01
Jan 00
Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price
Monthly Average 2000-2014
$ Per Cwt.
180
Futures
160
140
120
100
80
60
OKC 750-800# Feeder Steer Price
Monthly Average 2000-2014
$ Per Cwt.
250
Cash
230
Futures
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
Jan 15
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
Jan 05
Jan 04
Jan 03
Jan 02
Jan 01
Jan 00
70
ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS
Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual
$ Per Cow
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
David Reinbott
January 21, 2015
U.S. Soybean Production, 1994 to 2014
January Soybean Production Estimate Minus
November Forecast: 2005/06 to 2014/15
U.S. Average Soybean Yield, 1960 to 2014
January Soybean Yield Estimate Minus
November Forecast 2005/06 – 2014/15
NASS and FSA Planted Acres of Soybeans,
2007 to 2014
Jan 15 FSA update
81,757 +131 th 1,944
97.67%
December 1 Soybean Stocks,
2005/06 to 2014/15
First Quarter Feed and Residual Use of Soybeans,
2005/06 to 2014/15
Ending Stocks of U.S. Soybeans
Million Metric Tons
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
World Soybean Ending Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use
35%
Ending Stocks
Ending Stocks to Use
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Soybean Balance Sheet
2015-16
2014-15
FAPRI
2015-16
Planted Acreage (mil.)
83.7
86.7
88.0
Harvested Acreage
83.1
83.6
84.8
Yield (bu/ac.)
47.8
44.5
44.0
Production (mil. bu.)
Beginning stocks
Imports
3,969
92
15
3,720
396
15
3,733
410
15
Total
4,076
4,131
4,158
Export (mil. bu.)
Crush
Seed & Feed
1,770
1,780
116
1,723
1,851
112
1,825
1,830
120
Total
3,666
3,686
3,775
Ending stocks
410
445
383
Average price
$10.20
$8.76
$9.25
2015 March Soybeans
2015 November Soybeans
Hog Outlook (title)
Ron Plain
January 21, 2015
Source: USDA/ERS
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
Jan 05
Jan 04
Jan 03
Jan 02
Jan 01
Jan 00
Cents Per Pound
U.S. Retail Pork Prices, 2000-2014
450
400
350
300
250
200
Cost of Slaughter Hog Production, 2000-2015
$ Per Live Cwt
80
75
Actual
Forecast
70
65
60
55
50
45
Marketing Month
Source: Iowa State University & University of Missouri
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
35
2000
40
U.S. Hog Imports from Canada
Head per mo.
Slaughter Hogs
800,000
Feeders Pigs
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0
0
06 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
07 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
08 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
09 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
10 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
11 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
12 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
13 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
14 Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
% of Production
U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork
Production, 2006-2014
Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent
30
25
20
15
10
Imports
Source: USDA/ERS
Exports
5
0
4-15
4-29
5-13
5-27
6-10
6-23
7-07
7-21
8-04
8-18
9-01
9-15
9-29
10-13
10-27
11-10
11-24
12-08
12-22
01-05
01-19
02-02
02-16
03-02
03-16
03-30
04-13
04-27
05-11
05-25
06-08
06-22
07-06
07-20
08-03
08-17
08-31
09-14
09-28
10-12
10-26
11-09
11-23
12-07
12-21
New PEDV & PDCoV Cases by Week
NAHLN Reports
New Cases
350
300
PDCoV
250
PEDV
200
150
100
50
Source: AASV & NAHLN
2013-14 Week Ending
U.S. Pigs Per Litter by Month
Head
10.6
10.4
January 2014 PPL lowest
since January 2009
10.2
10
9.8
9.6
9.4
9.2
9
8.8
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
8.6
Barrow & Gilt Live Weights
Iowa-Minnesota Weekly Average
Pounds
290
2013
285
2014
280
record
2015
275
270
2014 average was 284.4 lbs, up 8.5 lbs from 2013
D
EC
V
N
O
T
O
C
SE
P
G
A
U
L
JU
N
JU
M
A
Y
A
PR
M
A
R
FE
B
JA
N
265
HOG SLAUGHTER
Federally Inspected, Weekly
Thou. Head
2,400
Avg.
200812
2,300
2,200
2,100
2013
2,000
1,900
1,800
2014
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
T
C
O
JU
L
AP
R
JA
N
1,700
2014 hog slaughter was down 5.0%;
pork production is down 1.9%
December Hog Inventory
All Hogs & Pigs
Kept for Breeding
Kept for Marketing
102.0
103.7
101.8
Under 50 lbs
50-119 lbs.
120-179 lbs.
180 lbs. and over
103.5
103.3
100.5
98.5
Mar-May Farrowings
Jun-Aug Farrowings
Sep-Nov Farrowings
Dec-Feb Farrowing Intentions
Mar-May Farrowing Intentions
100.1
100.6
103.3
103.9
103.2
Source: USDA NASS
Source: USDA/NASS
DJF15
DJF14
DJF13
DJF12
DJF11
DJF10
DJF09
DJF08
DJF07
DJF06
DJF05
DJF04
DJF03
DJF02
DJF01
DJF00
DJF99
Sows Farrowed by Quarter - U.S.
% change
from yr. ago
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
$ Per Cwt.
135
BARROW AND GILT PRICES
Iowa – So. Minnesota, Carcass Base Price, Weekly
Avg. 2008-12
125
2013
115
2014
105
95
85
75
65
55
JAN
APR
JUL
OCT
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center
H-P-09
10/06/14
Commercial Pork Production Forecast
Million Pounds
------Change------
2013
2014
2015
2013-14
Qtr 1
5,777
5,785
5,935*
+ 0.1% +2.6%
Qtr 2
5,519
5,504
5,735*
- 0.3% +4.2%
Qtr 3
5,622
5,423
5,845*
- 3.6%
+7.8%
Qtr 4
6,274
6,140
6,380*
- 2.1%
+3.9%
Year
23,187
22,852
23,895*
*forecast
2014-15.
- 1.4% + 4.6%
Iowa-Minn Hog Price Forecast
Negotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight
2012
2013
2014
Qtr 1
$84.78
$80.17
$ 95.15
$80-84*
Qtr 2
$85.45
$89.33
$115.67
$88-92*
Qtr 3
$83.15
$95.36
$111.79
$87-91*
Qtr 4
$79.93
$82.36
$ 88.78
$74-78*
Year
$83.36
$86.87
$102.85
$82-86*
*forecast
2015
price – prior day purchased
Jan 16
Jan 15
Jan 14
Jan 13
Jan 12
Jan 11
Cash
Jan 10
Jan 09
Jan 08
Jan 07
Jan 06
Jan 05
Jan 04
Jan 03
Jan 02
Net Slaughter Hog Price
Monthly Average 2002-2014
$ Per Cwt.
150
Futures
130
110
90
70
50
30
Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 2006-2015
Iowa State University Calculations
$ Per Head
100
Actual
Forecast
80
60
40
20
0
-20
Forecast Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
-60
2006
-40
David Reinbott
January 21, 2015
USDA Reports on January 12
• Qtrly stocks 1.52 bil bu, 25 mil bu avg trade est.
• Winter acres 40.5 mil ac down 2.0 from last yr
and 2.0 million acres below trade estimates.
• Soft red winter – 7.5 mil ac down 1.0 from last yr.
and 0.5 mil. ac. below trade estimates.
• Ending stocks up 33 mil bu at 687 mil bu. Feed
down 30 mil bu.
• World ending stocks 196.0 mil tons, up 1.1 mt.
• Russia, U.S. winter wheat condition
Supply & Demand: Wheat
2012-13
Acres Planted (mil.)
Avg. yield/acre (bu.)
Supply: (bil. bu.)
Beg. Stocks
Production
Total Supply
Use:
Feed
Food & Seed
Exports
Total Use
Ending Stocks
Avg. price/bu.
2013-14
2014-15
55.3
46.2
56.2
47.1
56.8
43.7
0.743
2.252
3.118
0.718
2.135
3.021
0.590
2.026
2.796
0.370
1.018
1.012
2.400
0.718
$7.77
0.226
1.029
1.176
2.4321
0.590
$6.87
0.150
1.034
0.925
2.109
0.687
$6.10
2015 July Wheat
Joe Horner
January 21, 2015
Dairy Outlook in a Nutshell
• Supply
–
–
–
–
Bearish
US cow numbers – rising slowly 0.9% (Dec 2014 year over year)
US milk per cow – rising 2.4% (Dec 2014 year over year)
US milk production – rising 3.4%
Concerns about where to go with spring flush milk
• Demand Bearish
– Domestic – Product pipeline refilling
– Exports – NZ up 3.8% thru Dec, strong $ limits exports
– Global – dairy product prices stabilizing
• Outlook
Bearish
– Margins squeezed till milk supply adjusts
– Cull cow prices vs milk prices dictate length of low prices
Stocks – Rising
Bullish
Neutral
Neutral
Bearish
USDA Margin Protection Program
MPP Signup
Missouri
USA
Signed up
70%
50%
> $4.00 margin protection
79%
55%
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/pages/content/farmBill/fb_MPPDTool.jsp
Dairy Price Outlook
USDA – All Milk Price
December 16, 2014
CME Group Futures
Class III
1st Quarter
2014
2nd Quarter
2015
$20.00$20.50
$17.00$17.80
2015
$18.45$19.25
14.82
14.29
15.25
13.45
13.70
14.70
$16.50
$15.75
$17.00
January 16, 2014
CME Group Futures
Class IV
January 14, 2014
MO Farm Forecast