Transcript OECD PowerPoint

ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT ÉCONOMIQUES
OECD
OCDE
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Monitoring Progress on
Implementation of the Manual and
Assessing Data Quality.
Bettina Wistrom
OECD Statistics Directorate
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE –
INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
1
Introduction
 Pressing need from trade analysts and
negotiators for more relevant, detailed data
 Are we progressing ? How to monitor progress?
 Suggested approach:
 Look at core recommendations in Manual
 Quality and comparability : 1)OECD quality
framework, 2)multilateral and bilateral mirror data,
3)Methodological Soundness Questionnaire.
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
2
New Core Recommendations
• Collect Balance of Payments (BOP) trade in services data
– i) Using Extended Balance of Payments Services Classification
(EBOPS)
– ii) By partner country
• Collect Foreign Affiliates Trade in Services (FATS) statistics for
basic variables- sales, value added, employment, exports and
imports
– i) By activity (ICFA)
– ii) By partner country
N.B. Concept of modes of supply is fundamental but needs more
statistical development
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
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Balance of Payments Services
• BOP trade in services data are relatively well
established following IMF’s 5th Manual
• Significant progressive improvements in detail and
comparability since mid-nineties
• Data collection by IMF/OECD/Eurostat currently
being adapted to EBOPS classification
• Partner country data published by Eurostat and
(since 2002) by OECD
• 2003 OECD partner country data cover 27 countries
and 75% of world exports
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
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Reporting of exports of ‘new’ BPM5 major services
components by IMF countries
Exports
Communications services
Construction services
Insurance services
Financial services
Computer and information services
Royalties and licence fees
Other business services
Personal, cultural and recreational services
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Reporting countries
October 1997
%
Reporting countries
January 2003
%
39
21
61
26
11
32
92
14
76
48
83
60
47
53
92
44
5
Reporting of selected BPM5 supplementary service
items
Exports
Miscellaneous business, professional and technical services
Legal, accounting, management, consulting and public relations services
Advertising, market research and public opinion polling services
Research and development services
Architectural, engineering and other technical services
Agricultural, mining and on-site processing services
Other services
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Reporting
countries
October 1997
%
Reporting
countries
January 2003
%
44
8
10
7
8
4
28
72
31
25
16
22
15
49
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Foreign Affiliates Trade in Services (FATS)
Statistics
 FATS statistics are relatively underdeveloped compared with BOP
 Data collection expanding at Eurostat, OECD and UNCTAD
 OECD FATS statistics database covers 5 basic variables (sales,
value added, employment, exports and imports)
 Inward and outward FATS
 By activity (not ICFA)
 By partner
First OECD publication of FATS statistics 2002, based on 1998
and 1999 surveys covers 20 countries in varying detail. 2003
survey to be published end 2004 expected to provide more
information on a larger number of countries.
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
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Current Situation of OECD Member Countries’ Development of
EBOPS and FATS (May 2003)
Country
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Australia
Austria
Belgium
- Luxembourg
Belgium
Luxembourg
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Number of
EBOPS
components
reported
48
22
62
45
75
4
52
47
58
55
20
26
41
62
25
16
30
44
29
56
62
68
31
53
58
10
20
46
52
FATS inward
No (but planned 2004
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
FATS outward
)
No (but planned end 2003
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
)
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Assessing Data Quality
 Given difficulty of measurement – how to assess data
quality?
 OECD quality framework
 Partner country mirror data – in principle there should
be something very close to symmetry (note there are a
few inherent conceptual asymmetries)
 Provide a measure of comparability/monitored over
time
 Bilateral approach
 Multilateral approach
 Methodological Soundness Questionnaire (Launched by
Eurostat –OECD 2003) will look at country approaches
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
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OECD quality framework
• Relevance of data could be improved by a
presentation by modes.
• Accuracy and comparability monitored by using
mirror statistics and asymmetry coefficients.
• Timeliness closely linked to coherence in case
of trade-in-services data. UNSD ITS database
project could help on that.
• Interpretability improved with metadata linked to
data.
• Room for improvement for accessibility.
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
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Some selected examples of bilateral BOP
services asymmetries
$ Mn
Japan to USA
2001
Total Services
Transportation
Travel
Government services
Other commercial services
Export x Mirror
imports
mm
20587
5713
550
410
13914
18618
6261
2700
1455
8201
Asymmetry
Coefficient
(x-mm)/
((x+mm)/2)
0.10
-0.09
-1.32
-1.12
0.52
USA to Japan
Total Services
Transportation
Travel
Government services
Other commercial services
Export x Mirror
imports
mm
Japan to EU
13064
5270
441
115
7236
9977
3066
789
110
6013
Asymmetry
Coefficient
(x-mm)/
((x+mm)/2)
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
35414
5060
6828
444
23083
-0.12
0.19
0.36
0.08
-0.43
Mirror
imports
mm
EU to US
0.27
0.53
-0.57
0.04
0.18
EU to Japan
31294
6104
9785
482
14924
Export x
Asymmetry
Coefficient
(x-mm)/
((x+mm)/2)
108056
28153
23350
3538
53016
73720
21245
20323
7922
24230
0.38
0.28
0.14
-0.77
0.75
88684
13694
21453
2554
50983
109776
21809
22236
1664
64067
-0.21
-0.46
-0.04
0.42
-0.23
US to EU
15761
4708
3840
55
7161
20854
5576
4369
168
10742
-0.28
-0.17
-0.13
-1.01
-0.40
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Average of absolute values of calculated bilateral
asymmetry coefficients.
Total services
0.22
Transportation
0.28
Travel
0.42
Other commercial services
0.42
Government services
0.57
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
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Some selected examples of multilateral
BOP services asymmetries
Multilateral summary asymmetry table
Export
$bn
2001
EU15 to rest of OECD
Total services
Transportation
Travel
Other commercial services
Government services n.i.e.
Japan to rest of OECD
Total services
Transportation
Travel
Other commercial services
Government services n.i.e.
US to rest of OECD
Total services
Transportation
Travel
Other commercial services
Government services n.i.e.
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Mirror
imports
Asymmetry
coefficient
Imports
Mirror
exports
Asymmetry
coefficient
152.134
40.787
35.071
72.518
3.762
126.969
36.379
34.226
47.853
8.495
0.18
0.11
0.02
0.41
-0.77
144.634
31.451
31.078
80.098
2.008
130.834
29.232
30.051
68.555
2.975
0.1
0.07
0.03
0.16
-0.39
39.563
13.677
1.691
23.514
0.681
36.945
11.6
5.051
16.706
1.655
0.07
0.16
-1
0.34
-0.83
65.899
13.765
15.732
35.73
0.673
54.136
13.517
18.023
23.95
0.584
0.2
0.02
-0.14
0.39
0.14
149.335
26.29
42.918
85.079
3.41
174.212
35.041
38.787
111.535
2.347
-0.15
-0.29
0.10
-0.27
0.37
114.409
35.495
32.1
41.673
9.819
152.713
45.669
32.059
84.733
4.198
-0.29
-0.25
0
-0.68
0.8
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Average of absolute values of calculated
Multilateral asymmetry coefficients.
Total services
0.165
Transportation
0.15
Travel
0.215
Other commercial services
0.375
Government services
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
0.55
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Mirror data and asymmetry
coefficients to identify
irregularities
• Monitor asymmetry indicators over time:
-Highest/lowest discrepancies between
reported flows and mirror data
-Asymmetry coefficient negative/positive
(i.e. relative under/overestimation of
reported flows compared to mirror data.)
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
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Methodological Soundness Questionnaire
• OECD-Eurostat joint initiative sent out
in June 2003
• 30 countries filled the questionnaire.
• Results will be discussed with the
experts first before being made more
widely available.
• Help to compare national practices
and foster good practice.
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
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Conclusions and Questions.
 On the criteria outlined above significant progress is
being made
 Much progress (but not all) concentrated so far in
OECD countries BOP Services, FATS and Partner
Country Data
 Is the approach outlined on data quality appropriate ?
 Do we need to monitor any other aspect of country
reporting ?
 Any other comments ?
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE &
STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC STATISTICS
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