Transcript ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT ÉCONOMIQUES OECD OCDE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT Monitoring Progress on Implementation of the Manual and Assessing Data Quality. Bettina.

ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT ÉCONOMIQUES
OECD
OCDE
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Monitoring Progress on
Implementation of the Manual and
Assessing Data Quality.
Bettina Wistrom
OECD Statistics Directorate
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE –
PRICES AND STRUCTURAL STATISTICS
1
Introduction
 Pressing need from trade analysts and
negotiators for more relevant, detailed data
 Are we progressing ? How to monitor progress?
 Suggested approach:
 Look at core recommendations in Manual
 Quality and comparability : 1)multilateral and
bilateral mirror data, 2)Methodological Soundness
Questionnaire.
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE PRICES & STRUCTURAL STATISTICS
2
Core Recommendations of the
Manual
• Collect Balance of Payments (BOP) trade in services data
– i) Using Extended Balance of Payments Services Classification
(EBOPS)
– ii) By partner country
• Collect Foreign Affiliates Trade in Services (FATS) statistics for
basic variables- sales, value added, employment, exports and
imports
– i) By activity (ICFA)
– ii) By partner country
N.B. Concept of modes of supply is fundamental but needs more
statistical development
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE PRICES & STRUCTURAL STATISTICS
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Balance of Payments Services
• BOP trade in services data are relatively well
established following IMF’s 5th Manual
• Significant progressive improvements in detail and
comparability since mid-nineties
• Data collection by IMF/OECD/Eurostat are adapted
to EBOPS classification
• Partner country data published by Eurostat and
(since 2002) by OECD
• 2004 OECD partner country data cover 28 countries
and 75% of world exports
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE PRICES & STRUCTURAL STATISTICS
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Availability of EBOPS items in
OECD database
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea (Republic of)
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE PRICES & STRUCTURAL STATISTICS
2002
42
25
59
46
65
5
53
48
55
59
21
29
45
65
26
17
54
31
48
31
53
56
61
42
52
61
12
29
48
51
2003
42
40
69
46
79
5
61
50
65
57
19
27
38
76
26
19
61
26
12
24
55
60
72
34
30
72
12
39
52
51
Number of
supplementary
EBOPS items
+15
+10
+14
+8
+2
+10
-2
-2
-2
-7
+11
+2
+7
-5
-36
-7
+2
+4
+11
-8
-22
+11
+10
+4
-
5
Foreign Affiliates Trade in Services (FATS)
Statistics
 FATS statistics are
compared with BOP
relatively
underdeveloped
 Data collection expanding at Eurostat, OECD and
UNCTAD
 OECD FATS statistics database covers 5 basic
variables (sales, value added, employment, exports
and imports)
 Inward and outward FATS
 By activity (not ICFA)
 By partner
First OECD publication of FATS statistics 2002,
based on 1998 and 1999 surveys covers 20 countries
in varying detail. The latest questionnaires have
been sent during spring. Replies are expected by 15
September 2005.
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE PRICES & STRUCTURAL STATISTICS
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Australia
Austria
Belgium
Luxembourg
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United kingdom
United States
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE PRICES & STRUCTURAL STATISTICS
Inward
Data exist but not yet sent to
OECD
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Data exist but not yet sent to
OECD
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Outward
Data exist but not yet sent to
OECD
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
7
IMF global imbalances
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Global Discrepancies in Balance of Payments Statistics
(Millions of U.S. dollars)
Current account balance
-59095.5
Goods balance
67874.2
Services balance
-1473.26
Transportation
-52377.6
Travel
27593.1
Government services, n.i.e.
-8275.24
Other services
31586.5
-101799
42135.2
-13510
-50616.2
27998.6
-17947.5
27055.1
-125679
10279.1
-13788.5
-63704.1
31232
-25200.9
43884.6
-128879
-6906.13
-18434.2
-58703.6
28838.6
-26147.4
37578.2
-101089
35557.9
-9185.75
-54014.8
30273
-33334.4
47889.8
-36987.2
66451.3
4865.54
-66749.5
34432.5
-32993.1
70176.3
source: IMF
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Some selected examples of bilateral BOP
services asymmetries
Export
Mirror
imports
$ Mn
2002
Japan to USA
Total Services
Transportation
Travel
Government services
Other commercial services
Asymmetry
Coefficient
Transportation
Travel
Government services
Other commercial services
Mirror
imports
Asymmetry
Coefficient
Japan to EU
21561
5684
564
376
14937
18938
5220
2908
1626
9184
0.13
0.09
-1.35
-1.25
0.48
30393
5634
9477
708
14577
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE PRICES & STRUCTURAL STATISTICS
33750
4429
7162
477
21682
-0.10
0.24
0.28
0.39
-0.39
12519 8465
5297 2910
467 891
90
99
6665 4182
16443
4626
3480
54
8197
Export
Mirror
imports
Asymmetry
Coefficient
EU to US
0.39
0.58
-0.62
-0.10
0.46
EU to Japan
USA to Japan
Total Services
Export
112329
20684
20225
4207
66844
85873
20410
19328
8661
37468
0.27
0.01
0.05
-0.69
0.56
98040
14574
19722
2365
61374
104072
17023
18588
1935
65335
-0.06
-0.16
0.06
0.20
-0.06
US to EU
21606
5620
4188
186
11611
-0.27
-0.19
-0.18
-1.10
-0.34
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Systematic differences in
reporting (1)
Asymmetry coefficients
US Government services imports asymmetry
coefficients 1999-2002
Australia
2.50
EU-15
2.00
France
1.50
Germany
1.00
Italy
Japan
0.50
Netherlands
United Kingdom
0.00
1999
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE PRICES & STRUCTURAL STATISTICS
2000
2001
2002
Canada
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Systematic differences in
reporting (2)
US other services imports asymmetry coefficientsAustralia
1999-2002
Canada
Asymmetry coefficients
EU-15
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
-1.00
-1.20
-1.40
-1.60
-1.80
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Korea
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Sweden
1999
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE PRICES & STRUCTURAL STATISTICS
2000
2001
2002
United Kingdom
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Multilateral summary
asymmetry table
Multilateral summary asymmetry table
2002 (as available in 2004)
$bn
EU15 to rest of OECD
Total services
Transportation
Travel
Other commercial services
Government services n.i.e.
Japan to rest of OECD
Total services
Transportation
Travel
Other commercial services
Government services n.i.e.
US to rest of OECD
Total services
Transportation
Travel
Other commercial services
Government services n.i.e.
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE PRICES & STRUCTURAL STATISTICS
Export
Mirror
imports
Asymmetry
coefficient
Imports
Mirror
exports
Asymmetry
coefficient
158.95
33.72
32.26
86.85
4.45
140.69
35.87
34.01
60.70
9.10
0.12
-0.06
-0.05
0.35
-0.69
136.61
26.72
26.95
78.79
2.32
139.16
30.83
27.66
78.33
2.59
-0.02
-0.14
-0.03
0.01
-0.11
40.30
13.73
1.77
24.16
0.65
34.86
10.63
5.60
16.44
1.80
0.14
0.25
-1.04
0.38
-0.94
65.45
13.41
15.97
35.33
0.74
55.16
12.73
16.78
24.76
0.80
0.17
0.05
-0.05
0.35
-0.08
158.29
27.61
41.10
95.38
3.26
168.09
29.47
35.98
112.25
2.53
-0.06
-0.07
0.13
-0.16
0.25
137.84
34.34
30.88
56.05
10.45
160.90
37.64
29.14
101.62
4.67
-0.15
-0.09
0.06
-0.58
0.76
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Systematic differences in
reporting (3)
Asymmetry coefficients
EU15 Government services exports asymmetry
coefficients 1999-2002
0.00
Australia
-0.20
Czech Republic
-0.40
EU-15
-0.60
Hungary
-0.80
Japan
-1.00
Korea
-1.20
Norway
-1.40
Slovak Republic
-1.60
1999
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE PRICES & STRUCTURAL STATISTICS
2000
2001
2002
United States
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Methodological Soundness Questionnaire
• OECD-Eurostat joint initiative sent out
in June 2003
• 35 countries filled the questionnaire.
• Results will be discussed with the
experts first before being made more
widely available.
• Help to compare national practices
and foster good practice.
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE PRICES & STRUCTURAL STATISTICS
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Conclusions and Questions.
 Much progress (but not all) concentrated so far in
OECD countries BOP Services, FATS and Partner
Country Data
 Mirror statistics useful to identify systematic
differences.
 MSQ will help compare national practices
 Do we need to monitor other aspect of country reporting ?
 Any other comments ?
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