Transcript Lancaster_march15_2014.pptx

Citizens Climate Lobby
Mid-Atlantic Regional Conference March, 15, 2014. Lancaster, PA
OBSERVED AND MODELED
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
(MID-ATLANTIC STATES)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Konstantin Y. Vinnikov (University of Maryland)
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MY RELATED CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSES USING
SURFACE, SATELLITE, & ASTRONOMICAL
OBSERVATIONS
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Global Warming (1976)
Arctic Sea Ice Extent is decreasing (1999)
Climate Variability is not increasing (2002)
Global Tropospheric Air is warming (2003)
Sea level rise – Accelerated Antarctic melting (2004)
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MID-ATLANTIC STATES: OBSERVED CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE & PRECIPITATION
KNOWN GLOBAL WARMING SIGNATURE (FOOTPRINT) IN CLIMATIC RECORDS:
. Warming trend
. Polar amplification
. Winter (Cold Season) amplification
. Diurnal asymmetry
. Increase of precipitation
. Summer desiccation
YES
YES
YES
NO
YES
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OBSERVED WARMING TREND 1895-2013
Trend = 0.76oC/100 yr
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Compare to:
Northern Hemisphere
Warming 1895-2013
Trend=0.76oC/100 yr
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East Coast States:
Observed Seasonal Variation of
Mean Air Temperature Trends
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• A century-scale warming trend can be clearly seen in
observations of Tmax & Tmin at 5 of 9 chosen meteorological
stations in Maryland.
• An expected asymmetry of Trend(Tmin)>Trend(Tmax) is found in
observations of 3 of 9 chosen stations. Five other stations
display the opposite Trend(Tmin)<Trend(Tmax).
• Century-scale decreasing trends in variance of Tmax are found
in observations at 8 of 9 chosen meteorological stations.
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East Coast States:
Observed Seasonal Variation of
Mean Precipitation and Trend
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R. Delaware at Trenton, NJ, 1912-2010
R. Potomac at Point of Rocks, MD, 1895-2010
R. James at Cartersville, VA, 1899-2010
R. Roanoke at Roanoke Rapids, NC, 1912-2010
R. Wateree at Camden, SC, 1929-2010
R. Savannah at Augusta, GA, 1883-2010
R. Altamaha at Doctortown, GA, 1931-2010
East Coast Rivers:
Observed Seasonal
Variations of
Runoff Trends
R. Delaware at Trenton, NJ, 1912-2010
R. Potomac at Point of Rocks, MD, 1895-2010
R. James at Cartersville, VA, 1899-2010
R. Roanoke at Roanoke Rapids, NC, 1912-2010
R. Wateree at Camden, SC, 1929-2010
R. Savannah at Augusta, GA, 1883-2010
R. Altamaha at Doctortown, GA, 1931-2010 11
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Annual Cycle of
Precipitation in MD
and VA has MAX in the
Summer and MIN in
the Autumn.
This makes our
climate so nice.
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The most important observed century scale climatic trends
in Maryland and Virginia
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Observed Increases in Very Heavy Summer
Precipitation during the 1958 to 2011 period
(archive of USGCRP 2009 updated)
Summer
Percent increases in
the amount falling in
very heavy rain
events defined as
the heaviest 1
percent of all daily
events from 1958 to
2011 in the summer
season for each
region
Groisman et al., 2013
Changes over the northcentral and northeastern parts of the nation are statistically
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significant at the 0.01 and 0.05 levels respectively; all other trends are insignificant
MODELED GLOBAL WARMING
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
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IPCC AR5. RCP-Representative Concentration Pathways. (Wikipedia, March 2014)
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NJ
PA
DE
MD
WV
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WV
VA
NJ
PA
DE
MD
WV
WV
VA
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Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones
&
SEA LEVEL RISE
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OBSERVED SEA LEVEL VARIATIONS NEAR MID-ATLANTIC STATES OF THE USA
(2009 Technical report NOS CO-OPS 053)
1957-2006
Trend=44.7 cm/100 yr
1957-2006
Trend=34.4 cm/100 yr
1957-2006
Trend=29.0 cm/100 yr
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Report: Global Climate Change Impact in the United States. 2009, US GCRP
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IPCC WG1 REPORT 2013 PROJECTIONS
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AR5. IPCC WG1 REPORT 2013.
Sea Level Change: Paleo, Observed and Model Predicted Estimates.
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Greenhouse Global Warming.
Observed data for
CARBON DIOXIDE and METHANE
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1995-2012 TREND
19.46 ppm/10yr
19.68 ppm/10yr
19.31 ppm/10yr
19.57 ppm/10yr
19.07 ppm/10yr
19.12 ppm/10yr
18.78 ppm/10yr
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THESE USA CO2 HOURLY RECORDS ARE OBTAINED FROM EPA AQS DATA ARCHIVE
Trend=11.9 ppm/10 yr
Trend=10.3 ppm/10 yr
Trend=14.1 ppm/10 yr
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MEAN TREND
1995-2012
14.06 ppm/10yr
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GLOBAL MONITORING OF CH4 BY NOAA: HOURLY RECORDS
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THESE ARE THE FIVE LONGEST
HOURLY METHANE RECORDS IN EPA
DATA ARCHIVE. ONLY THREE OF
THEM ARE VALID.
ALL OTHER RECORDS ARE TOO
SHORT.
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Observed century-scale climatic variations in the MidAtlantic States of the USA correspond well to the scenario
of greenhouse anthropogenic global warming based on
climate change modeling studies. We should expect that
many further model predicted changes in our regional
climatic conditions are inevitable. Unlimited global
warming is going to make our climates very uncomfortable.
In any case, regional climatic studies are often underfunded
or not funded at all. Monitoring of the main greenhouse
gases, Carbon Dioxide and Methane, in the Mid Atlantic
States is not sufficient or nonexistent. Due to the absence
of funds, the most talented students are moving towards
remote sensing or other well funded research paths. The
Climate Change problem needs your attention.
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THANK YOU!
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100 yr Averages (ºC) &
Trends (ºC)/100 yr
Tmax
Tmin
Trends
Mean Variances (ºC)2 &
Trends (ºC)2/100 yr
Variance
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Trends
What we are looking for:
1. Asymmetry in trends of Tmax &
Tmin. We expect that:
Trend(Tmin)>Trend(Tmax).
2. Trends in Variances.
What we see here:
1. An Asymmetry does depend on
station.
2. All these three stations display a
century scale decreasing trend in
variances of Tmax. Trends in
variances of Tmin are uncertain.
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Observed Increases in Very Heavy Precipitation
during the 1958 to 2010 period (USGCRP 2009)
Annual
Percent increases
in the amount
falling in very
heavy rain events
defined as the
heaviest 1 percent
of all daily events
from 1958 to 2010
for each region
Changes in the Eastern half of the nation are statistically significant at
the 0.05 or higher levels and over the Great Plains, at the 0.1 level38
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SEA LEVEL RISE and ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET MELTING
ETKINS & VINNIKOV, not yet published
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Vinnikov et al., 2005
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Russia, 1976: DETECTION OF GLOBAL WARMING
Arctic
N.H.
Budyko & Vinnikov, 1976
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OBSERVED AND MODELED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SEA ICE EXTENT
Vinnikov et al., 1999
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Vinnikov et al., 2003
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