Transcript PhysCon 2015   Climate Change - What happened to the Science? The ‘debate’ continues to rage.

PhysCon 2015


Climate Change - What happened to the Science?
The ‘debate’ continues to rage. The Abbott government and the Murdoch
media (mostly) claim that climate change is not a threat – at least not yet, while
the Fairfax/ABC/Guardian side warns that it is. What’s missing in all this? The
SCIENCE of climate change! There are arguments about whether
temperatures have risen in the last decade or how fast ice is melting, but these
are actually side issues. Where is the basic science? Fundamentally, climate
science is about the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere and about what
the geological record tells us about changing climates. Let’s try to fill this gap.
 Be sure to look for ‘Notes’ in the notes pages below the slides
 PLEASE NOTE: This is just a collection of a few
slides highlighting some recent developments as
well as some of the poor reporting of climate in the
Murdoch papers
 SEE the other file “Keith’s Climate Science
presentation Feb 2015” for the whole story.
Climate Science
What happened to
the Science?
Keith Burrows
Australian Institute of Physics
Education Committee
Download from:
Why are we still talking about this?
 The basic science has been known for
>100 years
 Climate change IS happening and it’s
dangerous
 Europeans of both ‘sides’ generally accept
it
 In Oz, USA and Canada it has become a
political football – because of the strong
fossil fuel lobby and their (Murdoch)
media allies
My proposition:
 The issue has become a left – right political
one rather than a matter of science
 The two sides only lob grenades at each
other and make no attempt to communicate
 The science has got lost in all this
 No, the science is NOT ‘out there’
(Note: Some people tell us that there’s no point in talking about the
science because it is ‘well known’. They say it is more a psychological
issue. While not disagreeing that the psychology is important, I don’t
believe the science it really ‘out there’. Most people – including ‘activists’
have no idea of the real science of the climate!)
 That is where we come in!
Overview of main presentation:







Climate science is not new
The big experiment …
The Earth’s changing climate
Is the Earth warming?
But is it us?
Does it matter?
What can we do about it?
SEE file Keith’s Climate Science presentation Feb 2015 for the complete
presentation
What follows are a few recent issues that have been in the climate news –
together with some that should NOT have been in the (Murdoch) news!
Is the ‘Hiatus’ real?
FOR 2015 SciCons:
Global Ocean heat content
(Nature Climate Change Jan 2015)
26 Jan 2015
“NASA later
admitted that
given the small
difference
between recent
temperature
highs and the
margin of error in
recording, it was
only 38 per cent
certain 2014 was
the warmest”
a
a
“After checking raw
data, Mr Homewood
said past
temperatures had
been adjusted down
by almost 2C and a
declining
temperature trend
over 65 years in the
raw data had been
transformed into a
sharply warming
trend”
(Oz 28 Jan 2015)
 But that
‘adjustment’
was at ONE
weather
station – in
Paraguay
“Berkeley Earth developed a methodology for automating
the adjustment process in part to answer the suspicions
people had about the fairness of human aided
adjustments.... the “biggest fraud” of all time and this
“criminal action” amounts to nothing.”
The Big Fraud?
 The Oz’s corrections of any of these
misleading claims?
The Big Fraud?
 The Oz is still at it!!
(28 Feb 2015)
The only reasonable bit:
“The questioners were quickly labelled
“amateurs” by atmospheric scientist
David Karoly, from the University of
Melbourne, as he and other climate
science academics rushed to support
BoM’s work.”
Indeed most are just ‘denialists’ with
nothing better to do than ‘nit pick’
the data looking for little skerricks
that support their dogma
“In the meantime, controversy about
homogenisation of climate records has
exploded into a global concern after
similar trend changes to those raised in
Australia were identified in Paraguay and
in the Arctic. Accusations of “fraud” and
“criminality” have been made against
some of the world’s leading weather
agencies. There is now the prospect of a
US Senate inquiry.
Respected US climate scientist Judith
Curry has facilitated a wideranging debate
on the issue, saying more research was
needed, but that it is probably not the
“smoking gun” for climate science, as
some had claimed.
There is a long history regarding
complaints about how climate data has
been handled by authorities and how
poorly those making complaints have been
treated.”
Do climate models really get it wrong?
“... all the mainstream climate models
have overestimated the general upward
trend of global temperature for the past 30
or more years by a factor (on average) of at
least two”
CLIMATE OF CHERRY-PICKING
PALTRIDGE
17 Feb 2015
The Australian GARTH
So what do the climate models
actually predict?
FOR 2015 SciCons:
IPCC AR5
WGI Fig TS.9
Anthropogenic
and
natural forcings
Natural
forcings
only
Greenhouse gas forcings only
 An acoustic study involving 6 people in 3 households
who had complained about the wind farm
 They experienced “sensations” when the wind
turbines changed output
 A spokesman for Pacific Hydro, Andrew Richards,
said the report “was not a scientifically robust study,
not a medical study and that no cause-and-effect
relationship is demonstrated by the study”.
Download this publication from https://www.science.org.au/climatechange
It was prepared on behalf of the academy
by leading lights of the global warming
establishment. Some day the academy
may come to regret the arrangement...
...the international gurus of climate change
have become very good at having their
cake and eating it too. On the one hand
they pay enough lip service to the
uncertainties of global warming to justify
continued funding for their research. On
the other, they peddle a belief — this with
religious zeal, and a sort of subconscious
blindness to overstatement and the cherrypicking of data — that the science is
settled and the world is well on its way to
climatic disaster.
Interesting book!
Unfortunately lacks
emphasis on the need for
good solid science in my
opinion
Basic
message:
We need to
talk with the
‘other side’!
The
politicisation
of the issue
has done
huge damage
Worrying evidence that ‘scepticism’ is actually well funded political propaganda
14 Aug
2014
“At the same time, like primitive civilisations offering up sacrifices
to appease the gods, many governments, including Australia’s
former Labor government, used the biased research to pursue
“green” gesture politics. This has inflicted serious damage on
economies and diminished the West’s standing and effectiveness
in world affairs.”
15 Aug 2014
After that
the
Climate
Council
called on
him to
talk with
scientists
He still
hasn’t
accepted!
Feb 2015
What to do?
 The science IS clear, but the message is not
getting through.
 It has become a political instead of scientific
issue.
 Two sides throwing ‘grenades’ at each other
is getting us nowhere (which is fine with a lot
of people!)
 We, as science teachers, and other
scientifically literate groups must do whatever
we can to bring it back to a question of
science.
Mike Raupach
(died. Feb 2015)
“The greatest cause for sorrow is the widespread
inability of the public discussion to recognise the
whole picture.
“Much of the political discourse reduces the complexities of
climate change to political football (“axe the tax”); much media
reporting sees only the hook to today’s passing story; many
interest groups want to use climate change to proselytise for
their particular get-out-of-jail free card (nuclear power, carbon
farming).
“All of this misses or trivialises the real, systemic significance of
climate change: that humankind is encountering the finitude of
our planet, confronting the need to share and protect our
endowment from nature, and realising that much will have to
change to make this possible.”