Transcript Energy Balances Data and Models for Energy Balance Compilation (Wolfgang Bittermann, Statistics Austria)

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Energy Balances – Data and Models
for Energy Balance Compilation
information
Some strategic thoughts
Wolfgang Bittermann
4th OCG Meeting « Session 11», Ottawa 5. 2. 2009
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Ideality versus Reality
 To have a comprehensive database based
on statistical surveys and enough resources
and time
 Surveys are costly in any case (time, money
and work), the resources are limited again
in all cases and to reduce respondents
burden is the order of the day
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3 answers you need before compiling energy balances
 How many resources
(time/manpower/money) are available to
conduct additional surveys?
 What (potential) data sources are
already available?
 Where the missing information could be
collected with the resources available?
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A lot of (necessary!) examples
How Energy Balances should look like
How surveys should be designed
How data could be checked
What models could be used
How to handle statistical differences
Best practices
And
And
And…..
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But…..
The situation in each single country is different
concerning
 Data availability
 Legal and socioeconomic background
 Resources availability
 Fuels available and/or used
 Climate background
 And
 And
 And……
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The main lesson learned from 15 years energy statistics

All “simple” models and “new” ideas I
proposed to close data gaps, to
implement new processes or fuels into
the energy balances, to increase
accuracy or generally spoken to improve
the energy balances with “cheap”
instruments were welcomed by my
customers – except some ideas
concerning additional surveys - and the
proposed surveys which were not
accepted were refused because of their
high costs
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The main lesson learned from 5 years energy consultancy
 All the rules, methodologies,
examples are very helpfully, but I
succeeded only if I was able to
convince my counterparts to find
their own specific solutions for their
specific national problems, mostly
by establishing good cooperation
between all involved bodies
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The main message and….

Data problems make your life sometimes
difficult but if you try you normally you can
solve them by developing models, using
technical coefficients and experts
assessments as the second best solution
and there is only one important standard:
data quality as well as survey
structure, statistical methods and
models used always have to be well
and comprehensively documented.
Otherwise you have a serious reliability
problem
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…the final conclusion
Best practices are absolutely necessary to be
included but IRES should encourage it’s users
not to take them over one to one but rather to
try to develop their specific national solutions
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Thank you for your
attention
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