Transcript Household projections in Scotland

Household projections in Scotland
Esther Roughsedge
General Register Office for Scotland
(GROS)
www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/householdestimates-projections/index.html
General Register Office
for
SCOTLAND
information about Scotland's people
Talk outline
• How we produce household projections
• What they show
• Potential ways to improve them
General Register Office
for
SCOTLAND
information about Scotland's people
Purpose of household projections
• Mainly used to inform local authority decisions
about future housing and service need
– Need to know projected number of households, and
type.
• GROS produces projections in a consistent way
across the country.
• Local projections may be used in strategic plans,
where this can be justified.
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How they are produced
• Produced every 2 years, to cover a 20-year
period.
• Based on population projections;
• Subtract communal establishment
population (from Census);
• Project household composition information
from the 1991 + 2001 Censuses.
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Categories used
• 32 local authorities in Scotland
• 7 household types:
1 adult (male)
1 adult (female)
2 adults
2+ adults, 1+ children
1 adult, 1 child
1 adult, 2+ children
3+ adults
• 10 age groups for the head of household:
16-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-44, 45-54,
55-59, 60-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
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Household composition
• ‘Head of household’ = first person on
Census form.
• The number of heads of households = the
number of households.
• Headship rates: the proportion of people
who head a household within an age group,
by household type and LA.
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Example of headship rates:
Aberdeen, 2001: age 35-44
Household type
Number
Proportion
(= headship rate)
1 adult: male
1 adult: female
2 adults
1 adult, 1 child
1 adult, 2+ children
2+ adults, 1+ children
3+ adults
People who are not a head of household
Total number of people in age group
3,460
1,857
2,451
898
972
8,353
796
12,693
31,480
0.110
0.059
0.078
0.029
0.031
0.265
0.025
0.403
1.000
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Aberdeen: households with 2 adults
Headship rate × household population = households
Age group
16-24
25-29
30-34
35-44
45-54
55-59
60-64
65-74
75-84
85+
Headship rate
Household
population
0.101
25,931
0.183
14,883
0.138
15,051
0.078
30,397
0.152
27,366
0.265
12,291
0.315
9,498
0.324
17,027
0.258
10,901
Office
0.162 General Register
2,541
for
SCOTLAND
information about Scotland's people
No. households
2,623
2,728
2,071
2,378
4,147
3,252
2,987
5,522
2,812
411
Advantages / disadvantages
of this methodology
• Advantages
– Robust
– Fairly easy to understand and interpret
– The data we require are available
• Disadvantages
– Based on past trends
– Reliant on Census data
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Differences from other parts of UK
• England and Wales:
– Different household types (include marital status, but
not necessarily children).
– Incorporate Labour Force Survey results.
– Include age cohort effects.
– Projections produced every 4-6 yrs.
• Northern Ireland:
– Similar to Scotland, but use household propensities
rather than headship rates – based on household size.
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Results of household projections
for Scotland: 2004-2024
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Estimated population of Scotland, actual and
projected, 1951-2031
5,000,000
4,000,000
Projected
1
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
1
2004-based projection.
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Projected change in population by age group:
2004-2024
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
0-15
16-29
30-44
45-59
Age group
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60-74
75-84
85+
-30%
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West Lothian
Scottish Borders
East Lothian
Edinburgh, City of
Fife
Aberdeenshire
Falkirk
Perth & Kinross
Stirling
South Lanarkshire
Argyll & Bute
Moray
Highland
East Renfrewshire
North Lanarkshire
Clackmannanshire
Orkney Islands
Dumfries & Galloway
Midlothian
South Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
Angus
Glasgow City
North Ayrshire
Renfrewshire
West Dunbartonshire
East Dunbartonshire
Shetland Islands
Inverclyde
0%
Eilean Siar
5%
Dundee City
Aberdeen City
Population projections 2004-2024
Average 1% increase in population; wide geographic variations
25%
20%
15%
10%
Scotland average
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
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West Lothian
Scottish Borders
East Lothian
Edinburgh, City of
Fife
Aberdeenshire
Falkirk
Perth & Kinross
Stirling
South Lanarkshire
Argyll & Bute
Moray
Highland
East Renfrewshire
North Lanarkshire
Clackmannanshire
Orkney Islands
Dumfries & Galloway
Midlothian
South Ayrshire
East Ayrshire
Angus
Glasgow City
North Ayrshire
Renfrewshire
West Dunbartonshire
East Dunbartonshire
Shetland Islands
Inverclyde
Eilean Siar
Dundee City
Aberdeen City
Household projections 2004-2024
Average 13% increase in households
Scotland average
Household type, 2004 & 2024:
Average household size is getting smaller
1,200,000
2004
2024
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
1 adult
2 adults
1 adult with
child(ren)
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2+ adults with
child(ren)
3+ adults
Age of head of household, 2004 & 2024:
Greatest increase in older age groups
700,000
2004
2024
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
16-29
30-44
45-59
60-74
Age of head of household
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75-84
85+
Percentage of people living alone, 2024:
1 in 4 will live alone
80%
70%
Males
Females
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
16-24
25-29
30-34
35-44
45-54
55-59
Age group
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60-64
65-74
75-84
85+
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Summary of household projections
results, 2004-2024
• Overall number of households up 13%,
despite smaller change in population.
• Average household size decreasing.
• More people living alone.
• Ageing population – more households with
older people, fewer households with
children.
• Large geographical variations.
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Media coverage
• ‘Lonely future for Scots as one-person
families soar’ - Scotsman
• ‘1 in 4 will live alone’ - Herald
• ‘City to grow a quarter by 2024’ - Edinburgh
Evening News
• ‘Church says Labour policies to blame for
death of the family’ - Mail
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Notes on household projections
• Projections are based on past trends.
• They don’t take account of future policy
initiatives / planned housing developments
(or bird flu).
• There is some demand to include additional
information, e.g., economic predictions, or
plans for future housing developments. But
it would be difficult to do this consistently.
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Potential ways to improve our
household projections
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Incorporate survey results
• Information on household type is based on
last 2 Censuses.
• Household estimates constrain the figures
– But no information on household type
• Could include results of surveys (e.g.,
Scottish Household Survey, Labour Force
Survey) to update this at national level.
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Different geographic areas
• Current household projections are for:
– Councils
– Structure plan areas
• Changes to planning system  need projections
for ‘city regions’ and national parks.
Require small area households estimates, to form
‘building blocks’ for projections for different
areas.
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Other potential improvements
• Update communal establishment
information.
• Review the household types and age groups
used.
• Produce variant projections?
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Future PhD
• Ashley McCormick will start a PhD supervised by
Paul Williamson on incorporating social trends
into household projections.
• Combine headship rates at sub-national level with
dynamic micro-simulation to project household
and family formation.
• Experiment with different headship definitions.
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information about Scotland's people
Summary: potential
improvements
• Incorporate survey results to update
information on household composition.
• Produce projections for different areas.
• Update communal establishment
information.
• Variant projections.
• Potential alternatives to projections
methodology and headship definitions.
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Any questions?
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