Transcript Christine Whitehead Migration and Housing

Migration and Housing
Christine Whitehead
Emeritus Professor in Housing Economics
LSE
BG/LSE London
‘Immigration and Asylum in Britain’
LSE 5th November 2015
Housing requirements of migrants
• Total numbers: ‘According to recent ONS projections, the UK population
will increase by 9.7 million over the next 25 years, reaching 73.4 million
people in mid-2039. Half of this increase will come as a result of
international migration’;
• Different from other sources of population growth – births are within
households; those living longer also already have their own home;
• Where they come from: immigration roughly similar between EU and nonEU – different housing experiences?
• Why do they come? - very different housing needs for students,
dependents, working age, asylum;
• How old are they? – concentrated among younger age and child bearing
groups
• How long do they stay? Implications for household formation.
Who is Coming In?
For What Reason?
Stylised facts about household
formation and housing requirements
• Initially form fewer households than similar indigenous groups but
after 5 years those from richer countries more similar; after 10
generally very similar;
• Equally initially consume less housing than the equivalent local
household;
• Initially go into the private rented sector (74% in Q1 2015)
• Also to other peoples homes and student accommodation;
• Those from richer countries then are more likely to enter owneroccupation – but overall lower rates of homeownership (43% in Q1
2015)
• Proportions of foreign born in social housing similar to those for
indigenous population - but no EU migrants have very limited rights
for some years unless refugees;
• So matters a lot who leaves again and when – those from richer
countries more likely to leave.
Impacts on House Prices
• Foolish to suggest that increasing population and households will
not affect prices, given slow supply adjustment - but the effects are
probably not as great as the media in particular suggest;
• Our own research for MAC suggested that there was some upward
pressure on house prices and rents simply from the increase in
population and households – but this was small;
• Great deal of interest in reports that migration reduces house prices
– but answering a different – more local question – suggests
demand from other groups declines – so pressures elsewhere;
• Also it may not be a traditional migrant story – but more one of
international investment - including people buying a holiday or
study home;
• But equally evidence that international investment can increase
supply.