Transcript AOSS_480_L01_Intro_20080103.ppt

Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480) // NRE 501)
Richard B. Rood
734-647-3530
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu./people/rbrood
Winter 2008
January 3, 2008
Class News
• There will be a ctools site by the weekend
• First Reading: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global
Warming
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html
– And in particular two subsections
• Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm
• Simple climate models
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm
Outline of lecture
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Who am I?
Course Description Overview
Some questions and Discussion
Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem
Science-Mitigation-Adaptation Framework
Who Am I?
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu./people/rbrood
• Scientist at NASA publishing in
ozone modeling, climate
modeling, physically-based
analysis of observations
– Current interest intersection of
weather and climate
• Manager at NASA, modeling,
data analysis, and highperformance computing
• Detailed to Office of Science
and Technology Policy (OSTP)
1999-2000
• Participant in national and
international assessments of
ozone depletion and
environmental impact of
aircraft (IPCC)
• Advocate and developer of
multi-agency programs in the
U.S. to address climate
change problems
• Participant in the development
of U.S. high-performance
computing policy
Who Am I?
• At U o’ Michigan teach
– Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics
– Climate Change: The Move
to Action
• Takes a systems approach
to climate change
– Science and how it sits
in relationship to many
other problems.
• Projects that took a hard
look at a number of
complex problems and
tried to make
recommendations … or at
least evaluate the impact.
• Projects from previous climate
change course
– Carbon emissions trading and
their role in climate change
– Fuel taxes and the reduction of
carbon emissions
– Great Lakes fisheries and climate
change
– New Orleans (2 projects)
• Sea level rise
• Public health, petroleum industry
infrastructure.
– Coal-fueled power plants in Texas
– Role of the World Trade
Organization in carbon trading
Rood’s AOSS Web Site
• http://aoss.engin.umich.edu./people/rbrood
What are the pieces which we must consider?
(what are the consequences)
Security
Food
Environmental
National
RELIGION
Societal Success
Standard of Living
...???...
POLICY
“BUSINESS”
ECONOMICS
PUBLIC HEALTH
ENERGY
??????
SOCIAL JUSTICE
Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate
Societal Needs
information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, …
SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
From Course Description
• Identify the important elements of science,
policy, economics, public health, etc.
– Where should we pay attention?
– What do we know versus what do we believe?
• Identify and map the interactions between
these elements and connections to other
external elements
– How big is the problem?
• How is all of this changing?
A Detail about the Course
• This year the first few weeks of the course
is serving double duty.
– Climate Change: The Move to Action
– Introduction for science graduate students
who will be splitting off into a separate section
after a few weeks.
• They will do in depth quantitative study of
component(s) of climate system
– Water in physical climate
– Cryosphere.
Course Project
• Reflective of workplace …
– “Complex Problems with no Known Solutions.”
• Groups of individuals with varied expertise
• Responsive to “news”
– Relationship of news to science
• Project will provide recommendations, a strategy for addressing the
complex problem.
– What are first steps?
– What do we need to look out for as these steps are taken?
• Monitor progress // briefing during the course
– Use of community web page
– Development of wiki book
– Possible publication on widely accessed web site.
• Presentation at end of course
– Nomination for student prize
Questions
• When some one asks you about global warming,
or you hear about global warming, what is your
first reaction?
– Is it bogus?
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Do you think that the planet is warming?
Is this warming consequential?
Is this warming manmade?
Can we do something about it?
What are the questions you want answered in
this course?
Notes from Discussion
• Long-term 600 year shift
• There is enough knowledge to
do something. (More certain
than science of HIV/AIDS.)
• Global problem, but response
by individuals
• Fear
• Misnomer: climate change, not
warming
– Climate is always changing
• Fashionable, currently in favor,
but what do we do in the long
term?
• Need of technology to address
the problem
• “Skeptics” feed off of
inconsistencies. Cooling in
1970s
– Difference between 1970s and
today
• Regional and local initiatives
• Sovereign states
• Protection of investments and
interests motivate the players
• Blown out of proportion relative
to other problems
• Role of media: Present two
sides as if knowledge to
support both sides is equal.
Then we decide.
• Epic, global scale
• Energy, Energy, Energy
Questions, Discussion
• I want this course to include discussion,
questions, unification, and expansion of
ideas.
– But to avoid “group think”
• Please suggest topics you are especially
interested in.
Glimpse into the issues of Climate Change
• Some global climate predictions
The motivator: Increase of CO2
(Keeling et al., 1996)
Basic physics
of temperature
ncrease is very
simple, noncontroversial.
The prediction:
Note: There i
consistency
from many
models, man
scenarios,
that there will
be warming.
(1.5 – 5.5 C)
Also, it’s still
going up in
2100!
Projected Global Temperature Trends
2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990.
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC ‘01
Next Time
• We’ll really get started next time!