Transcript Document

CLIMATE CHANGE,
A lot of hot air or Creation in Crisis
John Houghton
Exeter Churches
4 March 2011
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The Underlying Science of
Global Warming
has been known for
over two hundred years
The underlying physics of global warming
(known for 200 years)
Solar radiation
Long-wave
radiation
The Greenhouse Effect
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Changes in CO2 over 10,000 years
from ice-cores (colored symbols) and atmospheric samples (red line)
From Figure SPM-1, Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report
Mean temperature change
1950’s to 2000’s
Global average temperature change
from 1850
from The Climate Diagnosis 2009
Observed global average temperature for each decade
from 1850 to 2009 relative to 1961-90
- also showing uncertainty ranges
from UK Met Office, Hadley Centre
Changes in Global Mean Temperature in 20th century
• as observed (black)
• as simulated by ensemble of models (red & blue)
– with natural and anthropogenic forcings (a)
- with natural forcings only (b)
Reconstructed, observed and future warming projections
from The Climate Diagnosis 2009
Some main impacts of climate change
• More intense heat waves
• Sea level rise
• More intense hydrological cycle
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European Heatwave 2003
- JJA temp anomaly compared with average 1961-90
From Technical Summary , IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).
Refugee family escaping from floods in Bangladesh
More rain for some; less rain for others
Jun-Jul-Aug changes by 2090s
Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes
Precipitation decreases likely in most subtropical land regions
From Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report
Floods and Droughts
- the most damaging of world disasters
On average they cause:
• more deaths
• more misery
• more economic loss
than any other disasters
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Global Warming & Climate Change in 21st Century
• Rise in global average temperature > 2 ºC
• Rise in average sea level for many centuries
• More extreme heat waves, floods and droughts
• Likely Greenland ice cap will begin to melt down
(complete melt down gives 7m of sea level rise)
• Poor nations worst affected
• Many millions of environmental refugees
• Loss of millions of species
How sure are we about
Climate Change?
20 Years of IPCC WG1
• Assessment by hundreds of
scientists from many countries
• No preconceived agenda
• Under honest & balanced
discipline of science
• Cautious conclusions
• Tough scrutiny at
intergovernmental meetings
<www.ipcc.ch>
What can we do about
Global Warming?
International Action
to reduce emissions
began in 1992
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UN FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Rio de Janeiro : June 1992
ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE
The Convention’s ultimate objective
.... is to achieve, .… stabilization
of greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere
… the level to be chosen should
enable economic development
to proceed in a sustainable manner.
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Global emissions continue to rise
Copenhagen Diagnosis
6º
5º
4º
3º
2º
1º
Stabilization Target of
2ºC
above preindustrial
• First proposed by EU Council in 1996
• Broadly consensus for 2 deg at Copenhagen 2009
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What Action?
• Buildings: increased energy efficiency - e.g. heat pumps
• Electricity: more efficient & carbon free generation & use
• Agriculture: increase carbon capture & decrease all
greenhouse gas emissions
• Transport: move to electric vehicles
• Halt deforestation
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Electricity generation & use
•
Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions
•
More Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
•
More efficient appliances
• Buy GREEN electricity
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Renewable Energy Technologies
•
•
•
•
•
•
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Hydro
Solar Thermal & PV Electricity
Biomass Crops & Biofuels
Biomass Waste
Wind (On & Offshore)
Tidal (Lagoons & Streams) & Wave
Geothermal
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16 MW, 300 acre, Sun-Edison, solar farm in N Carolina USA
Energy from Biomass & Waste
•
FROM
Waste (domestic & agricultural) & Biocrops
•
TO
Power stations, Biogas & Biofuels
•
•
Local energy very valuable in rural areas
Energy from agricultural & forestry wastes could meet at
least 10 % of the World’s total energy needs.
from World Energy Outlook, IEA, 2006 Table 14.6
Can we achieve the 2 degree target?
How long have we got?
Waymarks for global energy emissions road map to 2050
From Houghton, Global Warming, the Complete Briefing, 4th ed. CUP. 2009
Investment in Energy to 2050
• Under business-as usual ~ 6% of world GDP
• With emissions reductions under 2 deg target
~ extra 1% of world GDP
• Extra investment more than recovered
through savings on fuel
• Further subsidiary benefits to be realized
from IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010
The International Challenge
per Capita CO2e Emissions in 2004
from IPCC AR4, WGIII, 2007
Climate Change:
the Moral Imperative
• Growth of wealth in rich world
through cheap coal, oil, gas
• No realization of damage caused,
especially to poor countries
• Rich countries need to reduce damage & assist
poor countries develop sustainably
Lag in the system due to
time taken for oceans to warm, means
A lot of climate change
already built in
- yet to be realized
The fierce urgency of NOW
Haven’t we first to tackle World
Poverty, then Climate Change?
NO,
because unless
we tackle Climate Change now,
the plight of many of the poorest
will be enormously worse
Hasn’t the Recession to have
top priority, then Climate
Change?
NO,
because there is much benefit in
tackling both together
The Christian Imperative
• Care for the Earth
• Care for the poor
• Stewardship
Stewardship means Sharing
Are we good at Sharing?
• in our families
- YES
• in our communities
- YES
• in our national social programs
- YES
• internationally with poorer nations - NO
add Aid and Trade together,
net flow of wealth from poor to rich
WE HAVE TO LEARN TO SHARE
A Particular Challenge
Rural Areas in Developing World need:
• Clean Water
• Sanitation
• Better farming methods
• Sustainable Energy
From everyone who has been given much,
much will be demanded
Luke 12 v 48
God is Creator
Science is God’s science
God is our Partner in
Caring for
the Whole of Creation
THE HOPE SET BEFORE US
• Unparalleled environmental crises
• God-given responsibilities for the Earth
& for the poor
• Stewardship is partnership with God
• Church should seize the opportunity
- world is desperate for leadership
Joseph to his brothers
Genesis 45, 5-7
“For two years now
there has been famine in the land
and for the next five years
there will not be ploughing or reaping.
Do not be…angry with yourselves
for selling me here…
God sent me ahead of you…
to save lives by a great deliverance.”
Pharoah & Joseph had
7 YEARS
So have we
2016
The Climate Crisis
“When written in Chinese
the word crisis
is composed of two characters,
one represents danger
and the other opportunity”
John F Kennedy
Celtic cross
Celtic
Cross
Briefing Paper no 14,
- 18 pages in pdf
- can be downloaded
from web site
John Ray Initiative
www.jri.org.uk