Transcript GLOBAL WARMING: SCIENCE & SOLUTIONS Chris Fox Associate Professor Environmental Science and Technology SCIENCE SOLUTIONS QUESTIONS HOW IS EARTH HEATED?

GLOBAL
WARMING:
SCIENCE &
SOLUTIONS
Chris Fox
Associate Professor
Environmental Science
and Technology
SCIENCE
SOLUTIONS
QUESTIONS
HOW IS EARTH HEATED?
WHAT IS GLOBAL
WARMING?
ALSO METHANE, NITROUS OXIDE
CFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6
IS IT
GETTING
WARMER?
WHY UPSWING
SINCE 1970’s?
AlSO GLOBAL MONTHLY RECORD
TEMPS ALL SET SINCE 1997
2005
2005
2005
US TEMPERATURE
UP 2°F SINCE 1975
US TEMPERATURE
Increase by State 1975 - 2005
CARBON, CO2 & TEMPERATURE
PAST 1,000 YEARS
CO2 & TEMPERATURE
PAST 160, 000 YEARS
CO2 AND TEMPERATURE
PAST 400,000 YEARS
CO2 AND TEMPERATURE
PAST 650,000 YEARS
650,000
550,000
450,000
350,000
250,000
150,000
50,000
AGREE THAT
HUMAN ENHANCED
WARMING IS UNDERWAY
IPCC REPORT
100 governments participated
3 years to produce
123 lead authors
516 contributing authors
1st & 2nd reports incorporated
3rd report unanimously accepted
January, 2001
“There is new and stronger evidence that
most of the warming observed over the last
50 years is attributable to human activities.”
June 2001
“Greenhouse gases are accumulating in
Earth's atmosphere as a result of human
activities, causing surface air temperatures
and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise.
Temperatures are, in fact, rising.”
A membership society of some 41,000
individuals from over 130 countries
uniting Earth, atmospheric, oceanic,
hydrologic, space, and planetary scientists.
“Scientific evidence strongly
indicates that natural influences
cannot explain the rapid increase
in global near-surface temperatures
observed during the second half
of the 20th century.”
News Release
Founded in 1848, AAAS serves some
262 affiliated societies and academies
of science, serving 10 million individuals.
“Governments and consumers in the United States
and worldwide should take immediate steps to
reduce the threat of global warming and to prepare
for a future in which coastal flooding, reduced crop
yields and elevated rates of climate-related illness
are all but certain, top U.S. scientists said Tuesday.
At a meeting organized by AAAS and its journal,
Science, the climate researchers argued that while
some policy experts and sectors of the public dispute
the risk, there is in fact no cause for doubt. The world
is significantly warmer than it was a century ago and
it’s getting warmer. Without action now, they warned,
the impact could be devastating.”
“The Third Assessment Report (2001) of the IPCC (TAR)
reviewed in depth all the scientific, technical and socioeconomic aspects of climate change. It concluded that
there was strong evidence that climate change due to
human emissions of greenhouse gases was already
occurring and that future emissions of greenhouse gases
were likely to raise global temperatures by between 1.4
and 5.8 C during this century, with a wide range of
impacts on the natural world and human society.”
June 2005
Brazil France Italy United Kingdom Canada
Germany Japan USA China India Russia
“The scientific understanding of climate
change is now sufficiently clear to justify
nations taking prompt action. It is vital
that all nations identify cost-effective steps
that they can take now, to contribute to
substantial and long-term reduction in net
global greenhouse gas emissions.”
December 2005
The World Meteorological Organization is an intergovernmental
organization with a membership of 187 Member States and Territories.
Established in 1950, WMO became the specialized agency of the
United Nations in 1951 for meteorology (weather and climate),
operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences.
“Scientific assessments have shown that
human activities are indeed changing the
natural composition of the atmosphere,
especially through the burning of fossil fuels
for energy production and transportation.”
GETTING
WARMER…
SO WHAT?
IMPACTS
HOT WATER
MELTDOWN
GOING GONE
HEALTH
EXTREMES
GLOBAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE UP1°F
North
Atlantic
Conveyor
Sea Levels Rising
ARCTIC
ANTARCTIC
ALPINE GLACIERS
ALPINE GLACIERS
Qori Kalis Peru
Columbia - Alaska
1978
2000
S. Cascade Glacier, Wash.
1928
1979
2003
GOING GONE
Equator
GOING GONE
HEALTH
HEAT STRESS
VECTOR BORNE DISEASES
RESPIRATORY STRESS
EXTREMES
HURRICANES
Worldwide hurricane intensity
(wind speed & duration) has
Increased 50% in the past 30 years.
Atmosphere temperature
Feb. 1, 2006 — 2005 was a weird year for tornadoes,
said meteorologists. Nationwide it was eerily quiet
from April through June, with zero tornado deaths
reported during that time. That hasn't happened in
50 years, said the experts. Then, in November,
tornadoes revved up with an intense and
deadly outbreak in the Ohio Valley.
When the tornadoes did get going in the Northern Plains
states, however, they were unusually numerous and
violent. In August there were 62 tornadoes in Wisconsin,
obliterating the previous record there of 44.
"So that's astounding," said Schaefer.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are warning
that oceanic conditions similar to those that
triggered the ruinous "Dust Bowl" drought again
appear to be in place. The exceptionally warm
Atlantic waters that played a major role in the
record-breaking 2005 hurricane season, coupled
with cooler-than-normal Pacific waters, are
weakening and changing the course of a low-level
jet stream that normally channels moisture into
the Great Plains. Effects are starting to be felt in
"America's breadbasket," as the southern Great
Plains region is already suffering from higher
temperatures and a prolonged lack of precipitation.
Why could a new Dust
Bowl drought occur?
The low-level jet stream-a fast-moving current
of winds close to the Earth's surface-travels
from east to west across the Atlantic, then
typically curves northward as it crosses the
Gulf of Mexico, bringing moisture to the Great
Plains. Abnormal sea-surface temperatures
have caused this low-level jet stream to continue
westward and to weaken, which is preventing
much-needed moisture from reaching the
agriculturally critical region. The shift in the
jet stream is also allowing a southerly flow
from Mexico to bring much drier air northward
into the Plains.
Added Bastardi, "While we cannot yet tell how long
this current pattern will last, if you trust history,
then the 2005 hurricane season just may portend
the return of a major drought to the Great Plains."
February 23, 2006
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are warning
that oceanic conditions similar to those that
triggered the ruinous "Dust Bowl" drought
again appear to be in place. The exceptionally
warm Atlantic waters that played a major role
in the record-breaking 2005 hurricane season,
coupled with cooler-than-normal Pacific waters,
are weakening and changing the course of a lowlevel jet stream that normally channels moisture
into the Great Plains. Effects are starting to be
felt in "America's breadbasket," as the southern
Great Plains region is already suffering from
higher temperatures and a prolonged lack
of precipitation.
17 December 2005
“In recent months, scientists have reported
compelling evidence that climate change is a
real and present danger and that the global
climate system may be on the brink of dangerous
positive feedbacks. We face a runaway melting
of Arctic sea ice, a shutdown of global ocean
circulation systems, massive methane releases
from melting permafrost, stronger hurricanes
and “mega-droughts” from northern China to
the American west. These are not abstract outputs
from computer models but things that are starting
to happen. At this magazine we regularly meet
climate and Earth-system scientists who harbour
real fears for themselves and their families
about what the 21st century will bring.”
17 December 2005
Jim Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard
Institute for Space Sciences and George
Bush’s top climate modeller is not alone
in thinking that we have, as he said last
week “at most 10 years” to make drastic
cuts in emissions that might head off
climatic convulsions.
February 19, 2006
TOMORROW’S FORECAST
IPCC Projected CO2
Concentration by 2100
2.5 °F - 10.5°F HOTTER
BY THE YEAR 2100.
The IEA World Energy Outlook 2004 predicts
that CO2 emissions will increase by 63% over
2002 levels by 2030. This is generally
consistent with the IPCC emission scenarios,
published in 2000. This means that the world
will, in the absence of urgent and strenuous
mitigation actions in the next 20 years, almost
certainly be committed to a temperature rise
of between about 0.5 C and 2 C (.9 – 3.6 F)
relative to today by 2050.
“The Earth’s temperature, with rapid global warming
over the past 30 years, is now passing through the peak
level of the Holocene, a period of relatively stable
climate that has existed for more than 10,000 years.
Further warming of more than 1ºC will make the Earth
warmer than it has been in a million years. “Businessas-Usual” scenarios, with fossil fuel CO2 emissions
continuing to increase ~2%/year as in the past decade,
yield additional warming of 2-3°C this century and
imply changes that constitute practically a different
planet. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that the
Earth’s climate is nearing, but has not passed, a point
or no return, beyond which it will be impossible to avoid
climate change with far ranging undesirable
consequences.”
My story begins when I was chair of the president's
Council on Environmental Quality. I was approached
by Gordon MacDonald, a top environmental scientist,
and Rafe Pomerance, then president of Friends of the
Earth. They were seeking my help in calling wide
attention to the climate change threat. I promised to
take the matter to the president if they would prepare
a scientifically credible memorandum on the problem.
It was not long before the report was on my desk, signed
by four distinguished American scientists--David Keeling,
Roger Revelle, and George Woodwell, in addition to
MacDonald. Its contents were alarming. The report
predicted "a warming that will probably be conspicuous
within the next twenty years," and it called for early action:
"Enlightened policies in the management of fossil fuels
and forests can delay or avoid these changes, but the time
for implementing the policies is fast passing." The year
was 1979 - a quarter of a century ago.
SOLUTIONS
POLICY
TECHNOLOGY
ECONOMICS
THE STATES…
10/18/05
10/13/05
9/27/05
8/1/05
7/29/05
7/19/05
6/9/05
6/1/05
5/9/05
4/28/05
4/28/05
4/22/05
2/2/05
TECHNOLOGY
Go with the low-flow…
Compact
Fluorescent
Light Bulbs
750 hrs
10000 hrs
750 hrs
Wattage
Purchase Price - Bulb
Rating in Hours - Bulb
Electricity per KWHR>
Hours
Time
710 4 months
2000
1 yr
4000
2 yrs
6000
3 yrs
10000
5 yrs
60
$0.50
750
0.08
16
$2.99
10000
0.08
10000 hrs
For an investment
of $2.48, you will
save $39 over 5
years.
Cost Cost Savings ROI
$4
$4
$0
0
$11
$6
$6
123%
$23
$8
$15
466%
$33 $11
$22
789%
$55 $16
$39
1475%
ECONOMICS
PROACTIVE COSTS
PAY NOW
REACTIVE COSTS
PAY LATER
Invest in technologies
that reduce emissions
Dealing with
impacts
PROACTIVE COSTS – PAY NOW
FOR NEW ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
Winners
Losers
New technology
manufacturer
Old technology
manufacturer
New technology
retailer
Consumer
Energy
company
REACTIVE COSTS – PAY LATER
FOR CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Losers
Winners
Insurance
companies
Energy
producers
Agro/Forestry
companies
Consumers
X
Ultimately, this issue is
deeper then economics…
…what kind of world are we
leaving for our grandchildren?
WHAT CAN
YOU DO?
MOST IMPORTANT
!!!FOFY!!!
FIND OUT FOR
YOURSELF
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
Get Ready
http://www.fema.gov/hazards/winterstorms/winterweatherf.shtm
Get Ready
E-mail
[email protected]