Transcript Hazard Risk Management in TURKEY Achievements & Challenges Ahead Murat Sungur BURSA

Hazard Risk Management
in TURKEY
Achievements & Challenges Ahead
Murat Sungur BURSA
Director
Prime Ministry-PIU
October 26, 2004
What is a natural disaster?
• is a geophysical, hydrological or atmospheric
event
• impacts vulnerable communities or
geographical areas,
• causes substantial damage, disruption and
casualties
• leaves the affected communities unable to
function normally.
TURKEY is prone to mainly three
types of natural disasters.
 One of the most seismically active region in the world;
• 70% of the population lives in areas highly vulnerable to
earhtquakes.
• 66% of the country is located on active fault zones.
• 75% of damaged buildings and %64 of total disaster losses
in the last century are due to earthquakes
 Vulnerable to floods;
Mostly in coastal plains and exacerbated by deforestation,
erosion and ignorant development.
• 15% of total disaster losses are due to floods.
• Annual average losses exceed 100 million US$
•
 Landslides;
• 25% of country area is exposed to landslide hazard.
• 11% of total population is located in landslide areas.
• 16 % of total disaster losses are due to landslides.
EARTHQUAKE TOLL IN TURKEY
Avarege annual direct economic costs exceeded
1 billion US$ in the last decade.
Average annual number of earthquakes equal or greater
than a magnitude of 5.5 on the Richter scale: 0.76
(6th in the world)
Number of people killed per year due to earthquakes:
950
(3rd in the world)
Average number of people killed per million inhabitants:
15.58 (4th in the world)
Average physical exposure per year: 2 745 757 people
(8th in the world)
Killed per million exposed – relative vulnerability: 346
people (4th in the world)
In the last decade Turkey faced
heavy natural disasters
• Erzincan Earthquake, 1992
• Flood in Black Sea Region, 1998
• Adana-Ceyhan Earthquake, 1998
• Marmara Earthquake, 1999
Erzincan Earthquake, 6.8 Richter , 1992
• 500 people died, 700 were injured
• 6500 houses were destroyed.
• direct loss is about 650 million US$
Flood in Black Sea Region, 1998
• area of 37.000 km2 with a population of 2.2 million suffered
• the worst flood of the last century
• direct loss is about 500 million US$
Adana-Ceyhan Earthquake, 6.3 Richter, 1998
• 150 people died and 1000 injured
• 74.300 houses collapsed, heavily or lightly damaged.
• direct loss is about 1 billion US$
1999 Marmara Earthquake, 7.4 Richter
• 18000 lives lost
• 113.000 housing units and business
premises were completely destroyed,
264.000 damaged to varying degrees
• Up to 600.000 people were forced to leave
their homes.
• 10-15 billion US$ direct cost
Lessons learned from Marmara
Earthquake
Communication
• Communication failed
• Telephone lines were out of order in first 48 hours
• Mobiles did not function
First Aid & Rescue
• Lack of organization and coordination in search & rescue activities
• Caotic situation
• Bureaucracy inhibiting efficiency and effectiveness
• Insufficient logistic supports
• Voluntary efforts were not trained and organised
Losses / Problems
• Public buildings and infrastructure seriously damaged
•Sub-standard buildings and infrastructure
• Hazard ignorant development
•Lack of code enforcement
• Improper inspection during construction
• Corrupted permitting and licensing
Serious Resource Gap
• 10-15 billion $ as direct cost
• %5-7 of Turkey’s GNP
Distribution of Government Expenditures
After 1999 Marmara Earthquake
EXPENDITURES
US$
Consolidated Budget
3.326.000.000
External Financing
Expenditures from special budgets and State
Economic Enterprises
3.772.000.000
Insurance
197.000.000
20.000.000
Disaster Fund(1999-2001)
TOTAL
* Source: OECD and Ministry of Finance of TURKEY
1.434.000.000
8.749.000.000
Resource Gap
World Bank has been a leading lending institution
together with European Investment Bank after
major natural disasters in the last decade
• ERZİNCAN Earthquake Rehabilitation and
Reconstruction Project (ERRP)
• Turkey Emergency Flood and Earthquake
Recovery Project (TEFER)
• Marmara Earthquake Emergency Reconstruction
Project (MEER)
Share of Disaster Mitigation and Preparedness Components
in World Bank Projects
M$
505
550
500
Recovery & Reconstruction
450
Disaster Mitigation & Preparedness
400
350
64,05 %
300
232
250
197
200
150
100
27,60 %
50
10,58 %
0
ERRP 1992
TEFER 1998
MEER 1999
Cost / Benefit Analysis
 Cost of structural system is around 35% of total construction.
Spending an additional 15% in the structural system should
save the buildings from collapsing. Accordingly;
During Construction
Additional
Cost
Savings
(earthquake resistant
buildings)
Savings
(including property)
5%
1:20
1:40
Retrofitting
25%
1:4
1:8
• For every additional 1 $ spent during construction, savings are up to 40 $
• For every 1 $ spent for retrofitting, savings are up to 8 $
No rational business-mind can resist such a high rate of return
What about BUREAUCRACY???
We have the luxury of not having business, mind
But we have the RESPONSIBILITY
Cost / Benefit Analysis
Saving LIVES
???
During Marmara Earthquake:
• 18.000 people lost their lives.
• There were 70.000 casualties.
• 600.000 people were forced to live their homes
Policy Shift in TURKEY;
CONVENTIONAL
STRATEGIC
• Fate
• Choice
• Reactive
• Proactive
• Recovery
• Mitigation
• Wait and see
• Anticipate and prevent
• Ex-post
• Ex-ante
• Crisis management
• Risk management
• Ad-hoc efforts
• Comprehensive approach
• Development at risk
• Sustainable development
•
Developments in Turkey;
Five Year Development Plan of TURKEY for the period 20012005 envisages:
 Minimization
•
•
•
•
•
of hazard risks
 Establishment of appropriate legal, social, institutional and technical
structures with effective measures for disaster mitigation
Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool established after 1999
Marmara Earthquake to enable catastrophic risk transfer and
risk financing (nearly 2 million housing units insured)
Local Government and Public Sector Reforms support
serious decentralization of central government’s functions
and responsibilities including disaster management.
Sensitivity of citizens and NGO’s for disaster mitigation is
increasing
Disaster mitigation is a new challenge for municipalities
Candidates in the last municipal elections, competed with
their disaster mitigation projects as part of their election
campaigns.
İstanbul
Comparable seismic risk degree with San
Francisco, Los Angeles and Tokyo cities
 Probability of occurence of a large earthquake in next 30 years is
greater than %50.
 Probability of occurence of a large earthquake in next 10 years is
greater than %20.
Impacts after a probable 7.5 Richter scale
earthquake in Istanbul;
 Approximately 70.000 dead people,120.000 injured-heavily injured
people, 400.000 light injured people
 direct economic loss ~30 billion US $
İstanbul Earthquake Master Plan
a road map....
Governorate
Institutions
İstanbul
Metropolitan
Municipality
Objective:
Reducing the
effects of
probable
İstanbul
Earthquake
Enterprises
District
Municipalities
NGOs
a social contract....
District Municipalities;
Bakırköy Municipality
 Vulnerability Assessment of 10.362 buildings
•
•
3.500 buildings are high to very high risk
Feasibility study for retrofitting of 350 residential
buildings in Bakırköy is near to start.
Zeytinburnu Municipality
 Vulnerability Assessment of 15.000 buildings have
been completed
 Framework for urban regeneration project of
Zeytinburnu has been prepared. Operational models are
under discussion.
Main Challenges Ahead;
Regulatory Issues:
Organizational Issues:
• Development Law
• Finalizing reorganization of
disaster management
functions:
• Condominium Law
• Urban Regeneration Law
• Building Code
• Building Inspection Law
• Retrofitting Regulation
Between Prime Ministry /
Ministries

At central / local
government levels

• Soil Improvement Regulation
Technical Studies:
• Microzonation
• Cadastre Renovation
• Risk Identification & Assessment
• Vulnerability Assessment
Main Challenges Ahead;
Enforcement and Implementation
• Effective code enforcement
• Risk financing
• Enlarging the risk insurance base
• Capacity Building in all organizations
• Awareness raising
• Training at all levels
• Public private partnerships
• Citizen participation
• Urban regeneration
• Implementing risk mitigation measures and retrofitting of existing building stock
“Sine-qua-non”s

Technically feasible

financially affordable

economically justifiable

socially acceptable
Who has the POWER?
The POWER is in the hands of decision
makers and practitioners
If we are committed and engage our societies to
take preparedness and mitigation measures at
the adequate level,
 many potential disasters will turn to be
natural events.
THE POWER IS IN YOU!!!
Invitation for Cooperation
TRADITIONAL
NEW VISION
• Humanitarian
• Search and Rescue
• Reactive
• Ex-post
• Recovery
• Wait for the incident
• Doctors,
nurses
• Donor meetings
• We will
•Humanitarian
•Search and Rescue
•Proactive
•Ex-ante
•Mitigation
•Continuous
•Development planners, politicians,
engineers, doctors, decision makers etc.
•Risk management workshops
•Let us
TURKEY welcomes cooperation with all countries under
this new vision and invites you all to contribute to this
process.
RSVP
TRADITIONAL
Cooperation
NEW VISION
Cooperation
Let us all be;
pro-active, strategic, comprehensive
&
try to prevent or mitigate
7.5 Richter scale pleasure...
Thank you...